By Mark Pukalo
Throughout his tenure as GM
of the Tampa Bay Lightning, things have always seemed to fall into place for
Steve Yzerman.
His eye for talent and
patience as a manager had plenty to do with that, along with a terrific
hands-off owner in Jeffrey Vinik and some luck sprinkled in. Many Lightning
fans have compared Yzerman to a Jedi Knight at times for signing cap-friendly
contracts and coaxing teams to cough up more than they should in trades.
Few GMs can navigate their careers without big mistakes on player moves, but Yzerman hasn't made many. In fact,
aside from minor things such as signing Erik Condra for three years or giving
up Richard Panik for nothing, you can really only point to Matt Carle’s
contract as a clear error in judgement -- and that may be more about the player.
Many have argued Ryan Callahan’s deal was a mistake. But while the hard-working
right wing has not put up the type of numbers that justify his salary, he
provides so many intangibles that this team needs.
Yzerman is now faced with what
will undoubtedly be his biggest challenge. He often gives the media little to
work with, but told reporters after the season that his actions this summer
would basically set the course of the team for years to come. That includes
preparing for the expansion draft, likely set for next June. There are going to
be changes. There has to be changes.
While he no doubt put
several oars in the water and worked tirelessly to begin that process last
weekend at the NHL Draft, nothing happened. It was the perfect time to get
started because you can use draft picks as sweeteners in deals, but no one was
biting.
Part of the problem is the
uncertainty on what captain Steven Stamkos is going to do. There’s no doubt
Stamkos wanted to look around to see what is out there. It’s a huge decision
for his future, and it’s his right. Ultimately, it comes down to weighing more
money against his desire to stay in Tampa Bay.
That decision may not come
until a week or two after July 1 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. If
Stamkos goes, Yzerman has to find a way to replace him in some way and dump a little salary. If he
stays, he needs to dump even more salary. You would think if Stamkos does not sign with the Bolts by Friday for eight years, he is going somewhere else for seven seasons.
The second holdup has been
the market for goaltenders. Ben Bishop has one year left on his contract and
will be looking for Tuukka Rask money (at least $7 million per), which would likely
not work for the Lightning even if Stamkos leaves. Bishop has moved into the
elite category of goalies in the NHL, but the prudent thing to do is to hand
the reins over to capable Andrei Vasilevskiy and get something for Bishop –
preferably from a Western Conference club. But Bishop has a no-move clause and
reportedly asked for $49 million over seven years from Calgary after being allowed permission to negotiate. The Flames
almost immediately traded for goalie Brian Elliott.
That leaves Yzerman in a
tough spot. He can hold on to Bishop and just let him go as a UFA after next
season. He can try to get Bishop to sign a “hometown discount” four-year extension
for something like $26 million and move Vasilevskiy. Teams in the market for
someone like Bishop are few. Honestly, there is no franchise in dire need of a
netminder right now.
There are likely only two
options left for Bishop – Dallas and St. Louis.
The Stars may need Bishop
more, but the deal is way more complicated to make. Dallas would probably
demand the Lightning take back Kari Lehtonen ($5.9 mil for two years) or Antti
Niemi (two years at $4.5 mil per), which defeats the purpose of the deal unless
you can ship one of them somewhere for a draft pick or prospects. The Bolts are
not getting John Klingberg for Bishop – the pipe dream of some Lightning fans.
No way, no how, are the Stars trading their top defenseman. The best they could
hope for would be right-handed defense prospect Julius Honka. With Jamie Benn’s
contract up in the summer of 2017 and Tyler Seguin in 2018, Dallas may not want
to sign a $7 million goaltender either.
St. Louis has always seemed
like the right place to deal Bishop and the Lightning scouted the Blues
extensively last season. You could deal two players who are impending free
agents after next season – Bishop for right-handed offensive defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk
-- and sprinkle other assets around them to make it worthwhile for both. Bishop
would be going home and, although Jake Allen has been good at times, the Blues could
be able to get the Vezina finalist to lower his demands and settle there.
Yzerman would then have to use his powers to try and get Shattenkirk on a
reasonable deal going forward. If it doesn’t work, well, you lose him like you
would have lost Bishop. The one problem is, Shattenkirk seems to be in such
demand that the Blues are reportedly asking to be blown away in a trade.
Yzerman has to lower his
demands to turn over the roster. He made 10 picks this season to restock the
system and can do without a few selections next season if they need trade
sweeteners. In some cases, he has to take 75 cents or less on the dollar for
the greater good. For instance, he doesn’t have to get full value for Valtteri
Filppula or Jason Garrison if a team is willing to take their contracts. The
only type of deal that could be made is accepting a bad salary for one year
(2.5-3.5 mil) for Carle, some retained cash and a second-round pick. Chris
Higgins (2.5) in Vancouver was an example, but now he is being bought out. That’s
what it will take -- or more -- but it might end up being better than buying
the defenseman out.
While it would be nice to
get Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov’s signatures on new long-term contracts
this week, the two standouts are probably being advised to wait to see what
happens with Stamkos. If he leaves, there is more of the pie left. Restricted
free agent Alex Killorn is in the same situation.
Lightning fans must remember
this: Whether Stamkos stays or goes, the most important cap season in 2017-18 –
not 2016-17. That is when Hedman’s deal would start, when Tyler Johnson and
Ondrej Palat need new deals, when Vasilevskiy, Slater Koekkoek and Jonathan Drouin
have to be re-upped. It could also have $1.8 million in dead space if Carle is
bought out – for that season and two more.
There will be some pain. It
would hurt to see Stamkos and Bishop go. Perhaps Killorn or Johnson must be
dealt at some point. Everyone has their favorites that they don’t want to see
playing for other teams but, until the final product is put on the ice in
October, you have to trust Yzerman due to his past performance.
If the GM puts all the
pieces together in good order this time around, he is truly Luke Skywalker –
and Darth Vader to the rest of the league.
Draft adds to Lightning’s depth up front
There is no way to grade the
Lightning’s 2016 draft class this summer, although fans can get an early
glimpse at Development Camp in Brandon starting Tuesday.
Just about everyone pointed
at the center position and size up front as the top needs. The Bolts addressed
both with their 10 picks – seven of them forwards. Brett Howden, a solid
two-way center whose brother Quinton plays for the Florida Panthers, was the
top choice at No. 27 but the big news came in the second round.
The Lightning dealt 2014
first-round pick Anthony DeAngelo for the 37th selection and picked
fellow defenseman Libor Hajek, a two-way blue liner with great potential.
DeAngelo has outstanding offensive talent, but does not seem interested in
getting better on the other side of the ice. He was minus-18 and a healthy
scratch several times with Syracuse last season. Sometimes you take chances
that a player with high potential like DeAngelo is going to mature quickly once
he turns pro. But you have to recognize early that it isn’t happening, and well
before his value goes down. You have to think that is what the Lightning was
doing here, putting out a fire before it spreads. Hajek may just be a more
productive player in the long term with his ability to play on both ends anyway.
The favorite pick here is
forward Boris Katchouk from Sault Ste. Marie in the second round. He plays
hard, physical, has some personality to his game and can produce offensively. Forward
Ross Colton, who is heading to Vermont as a 20-year-old freshman, could also be
a steal in the fourth round.
Time will tell.
