2016-17 NHL Predictions -- An Impossible Task

By Mark Pukalo

Balance is word in the NHL.

With variables such as unsigned RFAs, injuries and salary cap concerns clouding the scene in October, it is almost impossible to be confident about picking the final order in each division.

Yes, it would be surprising if one way or another Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Nashville and Dallas did not make the postseason. But figuring out who rises and falls behind them will depend on many factors.

The Lightning and perhaps Montreal, assuming Carey Price is there all season, look like the top two in the Atlantic. After that, any order wouldn’t be a shocker. It's all about Washington and Pittsburgh in the Metropolitan. Picking the order out of a hat would be just as good as deep analysis for the rest. The Central should be as close as last season and the California teams are not assured of being the top three in the Pacific.

So, of course, I’m going to take a stab at predicting the finish. Why not?

ATLANTIC

Tampa Bay – The Lightning are the most talented team in the division by quite a bit, especially with Nikita Kucherov signed. It’s Jonathan Drouin’s time to shine alongside Steven Stamkos.

Montreal – Price makes a big difference for team that is not really good defensively. The main concern is that those in the locker room that wanted P.K. Subban gone are going to have to sink or swim without him -- and may drown.

Ottawa – First-year coach Guy Boucher can get the best out of this group and there is a little cap space to work with. While others in the division are a little boring, the Senators may have the spark to make a leap.

Boston – Hate to put the Bears back in the playoffs, but think they may cycle toward the positive. Still need to add a defenseman though to help Tuukka Rask. Cam Fowler or Jacob Trouba?

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Detroit – Still weak on defense and Petr Mrazek can’t save them every night. Have an abundance of forwards and shipping a few for Trouba or Fowler would make sense, perhaps moving the Wings to third.

Buffalo – The Sabres are on the rise, but still may be little shy of reaching the top four. They should build and prepare for their arrival as a playoff contender next season instead of putting bandaids on.

Florida – Two of their top six forwards – Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad -- are out injured and their top scorer is like 50 years old. Just have a feeling they take two steps back before moving forward again in 2017-18.

Toronto – The Leafs will be a fun team to watch with their talented youth and could stay in contention for a while. The bottom six in this division could go any way.

METROPOLITAN

Washington – The Caps might not be better than the Penguins overall, but would expect them to win the division again. Still not sure their defense is good enough to win a Cup.

Pittsburgh – GM Jim Rutherford won his second Cup last season with a little luck and some smart moves (Carl Hagelin, Trevor Daley, Justin Schultz, etc.). The same group tries to do it again, but there is a concern with Sidney Crosby’s concussion.

New York Rangers – Would like to push them down a bit, but the Blueshirts always seem to put together enough streaks to be in the top four. If King Henrik’s play slips, though, so will the Rangers.

Carolina – Must throw in one new team on the rise and the Canes are well coached, have an emerging young defense and some improving pieces up front. They have more cap space than any team in the league, too.

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Philadelphia – Could see the Metro getting five teams in again this season with this improving team as part of the mix. Not totally convinced their defense and goaltending is ready for prime time, except for the Ghost.

Columbus – Picked them to win the division a year ago. Then they went 0-8-0. If the Jackets can ever stay healthy for a full season, John Tortorella could return them to the postseason.

New York Islanders – Andrew Ladd sort of replaces Kyle Okposo, but did Garth Snow go out and get John Tavares linemates? Nope. These guys always find ways to win games to stay around, but just think they may come up short this time.

New Jersey – The addition of Taylor Hall and a healthy Mike Cammalieri will help, but this team looks to be a year away from being a true contender. Cory Schneider may steal them plenty of wins though.

CENTRAL

Chicago – The Blackhawks probably aren’t as deep as the three teams below them on this list, but coaching and their stars will push them over the top.

Nashville – Pekka Rinne better be sharper than he was Saturday in Tampa, but the Predators have the roster to win the West. Get ready for that P.K. Subban country album.

Dallas – Injuries, especially with Tyler Seguin, are a concern. Still, the Stars may be a Ben Bishop away from being a series Cup contender.

St. Louis – It’s Jake Allen’s show now. Can he do it? The Blues learned how to win a little in the playoffs last time around. That could help.

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Winnipeg – This team is coming, but they must make a good trade with Trouba. The defense is a little thin.

Minnesota – The Wild still needs to make that Jonas Brodin for a top-nine forward deal.

Colorado – A team in transition that is still lacking in its own end.

PACIFIC

San Jose – The last hurrah for Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton after coming up just short last season. The Sharks could use some cap space.

Anaheim – The Ducks are in a holding pattern with forward Rickard Rakell and defenseman Hampus Lindholm still unsigned. They must wait to make sure they have Lindholm before dealing Fowler for forward help. If everything works out, they could win West.

Edmonton – They are ready. No turning back now. Connor McDavid leads a talented forward corps and vastly under-rated Adam Larsson will help the defense.

Los Angeles – Have to think Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick will find a way to get the Kings into the postseason, but it ain’t going to be easy.

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Arizona – The Coyotes boast an exciting young roster that is still evolving. Dave Tippett must find a way to bring it together and his track record says he will. Watch out Kings.

Calgary – The Flames finally got a deal for Johnny Gaudreau done Monday and can move forward with a promising lineup. Goaltending is a concern.

Vancouver – Could be in the running for the first pick in the draft, which would probably be better than plugging holes to try and give the Sedins a chance to sneak into the playoffs one of their final two years.

East final – Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh

West final – Nashville over San Jose

Stanley Cup – Tampa Bay over Nashville

Lightning Capology and Vegas' First Team

By Mark Pukalo

It may be time for Tampa Bay Lightning fans to go back to school. The course they need to pass before enjoying the next few seasons of hockey is named “Capology.”

The NHL salary cap is far from simple math, unless of course you have a photographic memory of the CBA or it is part of your job description. Once you have a successful team, the game gets more difficult.

Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is approaching his final exam after acing the midterm. He must first try to fit a long-term contract for Nikita Kucherov into the current season’s cap and follow that up by putting the puzzle pieces together for a 2017-18 roster that works -- with new deals due for Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Slater Koekkoek.

Capfriendly.com projects the Lightning have a little more than $5.5 million left under the cap, but I believe that assumes they put 23 players on the opening night roster and counts Erik Condra over cheaper options. What Ryan Callahan going on long-term injury for about a month does for cap space and how much they need to be careful with as much as $3.5 million in performance bonuses due for Drouin, Koekkoek and Andrei Vasilevskiy are key questions. If Kucherov signs on Nov. 1, would that help get him $6-6.25 million easier? In addition, don’t forget they have $1.833 million of dead cap space due to the buyout of Matt Carle for the next four seasons.

If my calculations are correct – and I was once good at math in grade school – the Lightning would save $475,000 if they keep Luke Witkowski as a seventh defenseman and Gabriel Dumont or Joel Vermin/Cory Conacher as a 13^th forward while waiving Condra and Nikita Nesterov. The fear perhaps is that Nesterov could be scooped up by a defense-starved team (Colorado?) and you lose a little depth to save $150,000 in cap space. But the waiving of Dumont and Witkowski on Friday leaves Condra, Vermin, Brayden Point and Cory Conacher likely battling for three spots – assuming Callahan and Kucherov aren’t there. Sending Condra down saves $325,000 in cap room, but sitting Conacher or Vermin as the 13^th forward instead of them playing 20 minutes in Syracuse might not be prudent. Point probably stays until Kucherov returns. The opinion here is that Vermin might have earned his spot and deserves October to prove he can be valuable long term at the NHL level. We kind of know what Condra and Conacher are, and they will likely get their shots at some point.

Yzerman earned his A+ on the midterm with some important ground work for 2016-17 and beyond by signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Alex Killorn to cap-friendly deals this offseason. He, no doubt, had plenty of discussions about moving other players.

One way or the other, goalie Ben Bishop comes off the cap after the season. If reports are correct, Bishop almost became a Calgary Flame at the draft and Dallas has definitely had some interest. Don’t think a deal with the Stars is dead yet. They could get desperate. But at this point, there does not seem to be a landing point for the big goalie and it may be smart to just keep him for the season and try to win a cup with two No. 1s or perhaps trade him to a motivated team that loses their netminder to injury. The deal that would change everything is if they could jettison Valterri Filppula’s $5 million cap for the next two seasons. But there are two problems with that. The Fin has a full no-trade clause and, in addition, the only teams that might be interested in the solid No. 3 center would likely want to send similar money back.

No one knows what is going on with the negotiations, but you would think Kucherov is looking for somewhere in the $6.5-7 million range and the Lightning would like to keep him at around $6 mil. If Yzerman can engineer some cap space to push his offer up to about $6.25-$6.5 mil, maybe they can get something done.

Looking forward, if they cannot find a team to take Filppula, the Bolts may have a problem with the expansion draft. Teams will be able to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or nine combined (including a netminder) if I have read the rules right. Those players with no-move clauses have to be protected – Filppula and Callahan – while the Bolts are likely to add Stamkos, Drouin, Killorn and Kucherov (assuming he’s here) to the list. So that leaves either Palat or Johnson as an odd-man out and likely headed to Las Vegas. With Point coming fast as a center, Vladislav Namestnikov capable, Cedric Paquette still around and first-round pick Brett Howden’s future bright – the Bolts are in a better place at center. You wonder if the Bolts could package Johnson with other pieces and grab another defenseman or a No. 1 pick. It could save space for now and the future. Tyler is a terrific player, but in my opinion Palat is much more valuable. I don’t agree with those who put Brian Boyle into the equation for creating space immediately. He is too important with his size, savvy and versatility.

I still think Yzerman has something up his sleeve. Whether it is as simple as Kucherov signing a two-year bridge deal that assures cap space this season, or a trade, there is still time. Regardless, the Lightning are in a good spot with their depth. That’s what good drafting does.

Vegas Baby

Many things can happen to rosters before the expansion draft arrives in June, but taking a look at what the new NHL franchise can put together for its first season on the ice is worth some study.

What the mindset will be is hard to know for sure but you would expect a mix of youth and veterans to keep the team competitive, while building, through the first few seasons. GM George McPhee will also most likely pick some players he can deal right away for younger pieces or draft picks.

Here’s an early guess at what the picks could be for Vegas:

Goalies -- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh), Eddie Lack (Carolina), Louis Domingue (Arizona) and Philipp Grubauer (Washington). … Note: If they pick four Gs, you would expect one to get traded. Fleury over Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, probably because Detroit has more available forward talent. Carolina could protect Lack over Cam Ward if he has a better season, though.

Forwards – Jimmy Hayes (Boston), Michael Ferland (Calgary), Marcus Kruger (Chicago), Alexander Wennberg (Columbus), Benoit Pouliot (Edmonton), Jacob De La Rose (Montreal), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville), Jacob Josefson (New Jersey), Josh Bailey (Islanders), Matt Puempel (Ottawa), Scott Laughton (Philadelphia), Riley Sheahan (Detroit), Vladisav Namestnikov (Tampa Bay), Emerson Etem (Vancouver), Connor Brown (Toronto), Alex Burmistrov (Winnipeg). … Note: You would think McPhee may take a stab at a high-priced veteran some team floats out there, but who that will be is hard to predict right now.

Defensemen – Simon Depres (Anaheim), Zach Bogosian (Buffalo), Nikita Zadorov (Colorado), Jamie Oleksiak (Dallas), Alex Petrovic (Florida), Matt Greene (Los Angeles), Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), Dylan McIlrath (Rangers), Mirco Mueller (San Jose), Joel Edmundson (St. Louis). … Note: McPhee could put together a pretty good group here and it doesn’t have to be with older guys. Minnesota will likely try to trade Brodin.