By Mark Pukalo
This is not the end.
The Tampa Bay Lightning may not win another Stanley Cup for a while. That wouldn’t be a failure. It’s really, really tough to win one, let alone two, and salary cap issues make it even harder.
Reaching the finals is extremely difficult and, with teams improving below them, it will be even more difficult to make the playoffs.
But the Lightning are not finished being a top competitor for a Stanley Cup. The reasons are simple. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli and Victor Hedman are still here for multiple seasons. Captain Steven Stamkos has one more season left on his contract and said he wants to end his career in Tampa with a reasonable salary.
There is also Julien Brisebois and Jon Cooper; Al Murray and owner Jeffrey Vinik. The Lightning are not going anywhere.
How good Tampa Bay will be when the playoffs roll around again in 2024 depends on a few things. How Brisebois can refresh the roster, as the salary cap increases a bit, to support the stars? Can the Lightning find a few cheaper development jewels to add to the mix like they did with Ross Colton, Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh?
The salary cap is not an excuse. It's just a reality.
This offseason will be interesting.
A Look Back
The Bolts were 37-17-4 after a 3-0 victory at Detroit on Feb. 25 when Vasilevskiy stood on his head.
It had been a bit of an up and down regular season before that, but, man, they looked headed for another 50-win campaign.
Tampa Bay stumbled down the stretch, though, giving up goals like candy on Halloween, and looking mentally tired at times. After a three-game win streak in which they allowed one goal, they coughed up 23 in the next four. The Bolts finished 9-13-2 the last 24 games.
Kucherov put up amazing numbers again (113 points). Point reached 50 goals and Stamkos made it to 1,000 career points. Brandon Hagel, Sergachev and Alex Killorn all had career-best seasons. Vasilevskiy registered 34 wins and could reach 300 before his 30th birthday. He was fine, with a .915 save percentage. The Big Cat just needs a more consistent defense in front of him and he can win another Vezina.
Hagel was terrific. How will they resign him after next season? Let's put that one on the back burner for now.
The Lightning played well in the playoffs, better than they did in the first round against Toronto last season. The Maple Leafs just got a little better goaltending this time and won three overtime games in Tampa that could have gone either way.
There was nothing to be ashamed of. Tampa Bay just did not put two games away and make a play in overtime. It happens. Not sure anyone had a bad playoff. Sergachev could have been better defensively and Ian Cole was not particularly good. Wish Vasilevskiy gobbled up the puck in Game 3. Wish Eric Cernak did not get elbowed in the head and played the whole series.
You just can’t expect everything to go smoothly. This is a tough league. This group was a few breaks and perhaps an injury to Point from winning three straight Cups.
They will be in the hunt for at least a few more years.
Where From Here?
While there are other minor things that Brisebois will be doing before the NHL draft and free agency begins, his biggest issue will be what to do with Killorn.
The 33-year-old power forward looked slow in the opener against the New York Rangers and you wondered if he’d end up on the fourth line. But the Harvard man ended up posting career highs in goals (27) and points (64). He followed that up with three goals in the playoffs, giving him 37 in his career.
Killorn would love to finish his career in Tampa. I have no doubt in my mind. So did Ondrej Palat. But the left wing sure sounded like he wanted to test free agency in postseason interviews. It's his right. He won’t get a Palat offer (5 years, $30 million). But a few teams may offer him four for about $18 million. The Lightning can’t be one of them.
He will probably have his choice - take about $2.5 million for two years in Tampa where there’s no state income tax, or $4-5 million for three or four years somewhere else. Not sure what he will decide.
Among the other unrestricted free agents, I would keep Daniel Walcott as a minor league warrior and perhaps even Trevor Carrick to give the Syracuse blue line some experience. Let defenseman Sean Day and center Gemel Smith have fresh starts in another organization.
Cole can be replaced and that $3 million cap hit could come in handy. I have a player in mind if the cap goes up more than expected and Killorn leaves.
Then you have to decide what to do with the fourth liners. This won’t go over well with fans, but I would look into trading Pat Maroon. God knows, the Lightning need some draft picks this June and perhaps they could add one by dealing the Big Rig. I would let Pierre-Eduard Bellemare go as well. He can still play, but I think the Bolts can match his production with a younger player. I would sign Corey Perry for one more year. He can still score goals, especially on the second power-play unit, and his -28 this season doesn’t scare me.
It is probably time for the Lightning to sign another backup goalie. Brian Elliott was fine at times last season, but you want better than an .891 SP out of your second netminder. Hugo Alnfelt and Matt Tomkins probably aren’t ready, so names like Semyon Varlamov, James Reimer, Martin Jones, Jonathan Quick, Alex Nedeljkovic and Mackenzie Blackwood could be available if they take $1 million or less.
Of the restricted free agents, Grant Mismash and Dmitry Semykin will likely be let go. I would try to deal Gabriel Fortier and give him a fresh start with a new team. Keeping Cole Keopke and Rudy Balcers for another year won’t hurt. Both can play in the NHL if needed.
Center Simon Ryfors, as expected, has returned to Sweden after scoring 27 goals for Syracuse.One of the many drawbacks to the salary cap jail the Lightning were in this season was they could not take a look at players like Ryfors in the NHL. If a forward was injured, they had to go with seven defensemen.
It sure would have been valuable to see forward Gage Goncalves and lefty defenseman Declan Carlile for a few games, too.
Then, there’s Colton and Tanner Jeannot. Although many, including me, have been critical of Jeannot’s play, you have to resign him after giving up so much in a trade. Jeannot certainly hasn’t earned what Nick Paul got. I would hope the Bolts offer him a “prove it” contract of perhaps two years, $3.5-4 million total. We will see. Colton should be in the two-year 2-2.5 range, but he may want more. It’s not out of the question they trade Colton to make room for other moves, but the guy is a gritty, productive player. Hard to move on from proven bottom sixers like him.
These are impossible decisions. But difficult moves will have to be made.
Next Year’s Lineup
Raises for Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak would take up all of Killorn and Cole’s salary.
Vladimir Namestnikov’s contract is easily used up with raises for Colton and Jeannot. The big hope is that the cap goes up much more. That may be a pipe dream. The rumor is, it may go up just $1 million.
The other possibility is to acquire another player to go along with Brent Seabrook on LTIR. But there are not many out there.
They could go two ways. Here’s the lineup you would love to have, if somehow they could stay under the cap.
Hagel - Point - Kucherov
Killorn - Cirelli - Stamkos
Colton - Paul - Mikey Eyssimont
Perry - Nick Bjugstad (FA) - Jeannot
Balcers
Hedman - Perbix
Sergachev - Cernak
Carson Soucy (FA) - Raddysh
Haydn Fleury and/or Zach Bogosian
Vasilevskiy
Varlamov or Reimer or Quick
The cheaper version might look like this.
Hagel - Point - Kucherov
Alex Barre-Boulet - Cirelli - Stamkos
Colton - Paul - Jeannot
Maroon - Eyssimont - Perry
Balcers or Koepke
Hedman - Perbix
Sergachev - Cernak
Fleury - Raddysh
Bogosian
Vasilevskiy
Reimer
Everyone would certainly love the first roster better, but it just might not be possible in a cap world, Still, I’m not against a cheap option as a third-pair lefty defenseman and giving Barre-Boulet a shot in the top six for 20 games to see if he is finally ready to be an NHL player.
As hurtful as last offseason was to say goodbye to Ryan McDonagh and Palat, this one could be just as bad.
But, again, Lightning fans, you have Vasy, Stammer, Kooch, Pointer, Tony, Heddy, Cerny, Sergy, Hagel and Paul as your base. You can do a lot worse.
Tampa Bay will win a lot of hockey games next season. Just how many is up to the ingenuity of Brisebois and his staff, along with the foresight of Murray.
We won’t always agree with them. But their records speak for themselves.’
This is not the end, Bolts fans. Not even close.
