By Mark Pukalo
Up and Down. That's the simple phrase which describes the first half of the Tampa Bay Lightning's 2023-24 season.
One day you feel everything is alright. The Bolts will host some playoff games and peak at the right time to make a run.
The next day you are wondering where Steven Stamkos will be traded to play in the postseason. The door is closed to another Cup run for a while.
One thing is for sure. Another 41 games like this and the Lightning will be golfing in mid April.
The good news is, when the Lightning have been good this season - they have been really good. The gutsy come-from-behind wins over Edmonton, Vegas and Boston, the eight-goal explosion at Carolina, the back-to-back shutouts. Nikita Kucherov. has been Hart Trophy worthy. Victor Hedman has been Victor Hedman almost every night.
But the same question remains. Can the Bolts defend consistently enough to allow goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to carry them to the playoffs?
The Lightning just give up goals too easily. They work so hard at times to break through and score a goal or two to get a lead, a tie. But soon after, a mistake leads to a goal against. Then, they give up another.
Vasilevskiy could have been better since returning from back surgery, but there are only so many nights a goaltender can stand on his head to win a game. Too many quality chances against leads to goals, whoever is in the net.
It isn't just the six defensemen, either. It's poor puck management by the forwards. You don't want to take away their creativity, but they have to play safer at times. They have played smart hockey before. Many of them won two cups, made three finals in a row. They know how to win. They just revert back to bad habits too easily.
One of the keys to the season was how well the right side of the defense would play. Eric Cernak has been fine most nights, but he is hurt again during a key stretch. Darren Raddysh has had some good nights, but he is -15. Nick Perbix has better numbers (+5), but they don't come close to matching the way he has played overall. He is an example of how sometimes plus/minus is deceiving.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been Mikhail Sergachev, who has regressed in the defensive end this season. The guy has plenty of talent and he works hard. He just has not played smart this season. That has hurt a team that needs him to play 24-25 solid minutes per game.
Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel - except for some really bad passes of late - have been great. Stamkos is Stamkos (16 goals, -19), but he needs to pick it up in the second half for this team to get to the promised land. Tyler Motte, Mikey Eyssimont and Luke Glendening have done their jobs. I'd like to see more minutes from Eyssimont.
Nick Paul has had some very good games, but a few more bad nights than you would hope for from a nuts and bolts player like him. Alex Barre-Boulet has played better than expected, to be honest. In my opinion, Austin Watson is not needed on the team. Conor Sheary is a good hockey player. He just hasn't been a factor thus far. He needs to be in the second half.
This reporter was not a fan of the Tanner Jeannot trade. He has not made the haul given up to Nashville worth it yet in my opinion. I will admit I criticized Blake Coleman and Hagel for a while as well. I was wrong. The hope is, Jeannot grows on me and with the team. He just hasn't made a big enough impact most nights.
I'm a big fan of Anthony Cirelli. He does a lot of things that go under the radar to help this team win. But he needs to be more prominent if the Bolts are going to turn their season around. The two-way center may be the most important player in the second half.
Everyone has to be better, including coach Jon Cooper. Barre-Boulet should not be sitting in favor of Watson. Cole Koepke was more impactful than Jeannot and Watson when he was up. If not Barre-Boulet, maybe give Gage Goncalves a look.
There's little Julien Brisebois can do at the trade deadline, unless the Lightning fall out of logical contention. It's possible he could package Sheary for a righty defenseman. But the next six weeks will give him most of the answers he needs.
You can never give up on this group. It has won too much. It appears they will be fighting with Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia the New York Islanders and Detroit for two wild-card spots. On their best nights, the Lightning are better than all of those teams. But will they play consistent enough to get the job done?
The answer can't keep changing every day.
