"Creative" picks for the Derby

      There is no horse race that is more difficult to predict than the Kentucky Derby. Let’s start there.

       Few, if any, have run a race at 1 ¼ miles before. With as many as 20 horses on the track it is hard to figure out who will get a good enough trip, find the proper room, and save enough energy to explode down the long stretch. Luck can be a huge factor.

       It’s also difficult because trainers build the best of the contenders up through the first four months of the year. It's tough to tell which of the capable horses are ready for their absolute top effort after all the screws are tightened. Some need a lot of time off, some need to be pushed harder. You can’t interview the horses, even though some of them have twitter accounts. You can only see the workouts, which can give you some answers but not everything.

      You can handicap for a week, pick the right horse, then it rains and it changes everything. In my opinion, no way Super Saver wins two years ago on a dry surface.

      Aside from those issues, much like the Breeder’s Cup races, they are all talented and there are usually 12-15 thoroughbreds you can make a case for. Heck, no one could have really thought Mine That Bird would win in 2009, so anything can happen. By the way, Mine That Bird was 0-for-9 after the Derby.

       I remember watching the Derby and the other Triple Crown races as a kid. Like everyone, I marveled at the great Secretariat. I had a special interest in Affirmed -- a doe-eyed, gentle horse who had the heart of a lion and would not be denied the Triple Crown.

       But I didn’t really get into betting the Derby until 2000, when there was a lot of hype for a monster named Fusiachi Pegasus. I decided to go down and make a few bets at the small simulcast center for the old Hartford Jai Lai Fronton, which had been closed. I cashed the exacta for $33.00 and narrowly missed the trifecta. I was hooked. My bank account would never be the same.

       I am far from an expert. I do the best I can and combine hunches with numbers and information. I haven’t made a big score in the Derby. Funny Cide provided a nice day for me in 2003, but I can’t say that he was a strong No. 1 choice for me. I just didn't like favorite Empire Maker. I have been close a few times, like last year with Nehro. I thought I did some great handicapping in 2010 and Awesome Act finished second to last. But, at least, I could blame the weather for that one.

       Many are saying this is going to be one of the most competitive Derbys in recent memory and they are right. That makes it even tougher, but I will take a swing at it.

       Narrowing it down. In such a big field, you have to start tossing horses to get it down to six, seven or eight that can win. I don’t like playing speed horses, especially in the Derby, but you always have to keep the best one on top in a few bets. Unless I am forgetting something, only War Emblem has gone gate to wire in the last 12 years. But, in that race, many of the jockeys had brain spasms.

       I’m going to toss seven on first look.

       Don’t think Illinois Derby winner Done Talking has the talent to run with this group and Bob Baffert’s Liaison has looked awful in his races this year. Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective, D. Wayne Lukas’ Optimizer and Delta Jackpot champion Sabercat  -- who have all been closers -- could bound home for third or fourth if the race totally falls apart, but I can’t envision them winning. Trinniberg has never run more than seven furlongs. He might have the lead for a while, but come on. His inclusion does make me happy though, because it will likely force Bodemeister and Hansen to run harder. The last toss is a tough one – El Padrino. The horse has decent numbers, but looking back at his Risen Star and Florida Derby runs I just wasn’t thrilled. Trainer Todd Pletcher will have him ready though. If also-eligible My Adonis gets in, he will be an early toss as well. Just not good enough.

       We’re down to 13 and I’ll chop four more out.

       You are always worried that a horse from Europe or the UAE Derby like Daddy Long Legs is going to win one of these someday, but that last time he ran doesn’t look so good and he was 12^th out of 13 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last November. Plus, he drew the dreaded No. 1 post Wednesday. His half brother Daddy Nose Best looked pretty good winning the Sunland Derby, but think he is jumping up in competition level big time. Regardless, their father Scat Daddy will be proud to see them run in a race where his career ended with an injury in 2007. I’m also tossing Hansen. Even if he is able to rate like he did in the Gotham, I can’t see him having enough steam to hold off everyone in the stretch. I may regret this one. Closer Rousing Sermon is the last of my second cuts, although he is definitely a horse that I will have at the bottom of some of my trifecta and superfectas. His move in the Cash Call Futurity last year was impressive. I might even throw $1-2 to win on him just in case. He is 50-1 morning line.

      Tossing the next three gets me down to six.

      I’m not a big Calvin Borel fan, but it’s not easy to look past him on a capable horse like Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy. This horse has some great bloodlines and Borrail will probably have him down on the fence ready to get first jump past the speed like he did with Super Saver, who did not finish in the money in his last three races after winning the Derby. Indy may sneak in front in the stretch, but I think he will be passed before the line. There’s no doubt Alpha is capable and you can easily have him in your top three, but when you get to this point you have to make tough choices. Went the Day Well looked good in winning the Spiral, the race last year’s Derby winner Animal Kingdom won, but he did not race at age 2. The last horse to win a Derby without a race as a two-year old was Apollo in 1882. However, I like that John Velasquez will climb aboard.

      Bodemeister has the same problem as Went the Day Well. The only reason I give him a chance is he looked like an absolute freak in the Arkansas Derby. If any of the speed horses are going to do it, he may be the one. Is he Sidney’s Candy, who looked fast enough to go all the way to many (not me) and finished 17^th two years ago? Or is the horse named after trainer Bob Baffert’s son Bode special? The scenario is this. Everyone lets Trinniberg go, knowing that he is likely cheap speed and will stop. The horses in behind him run a reasonable pace and Bode gets the jump at the top of the stretch.

      I have to keep I’ll Have Another in my top five, because he beat the horse I am picking in his last race – the Santa Anita Derby -- with a really good time. Plus, I've said "I'll Have Another" an awful lot in my life. Even though Stewart Elliott won the Derby, I can’t depend on untested jockey Mario Gutierrez to win this big a race. Gemologist is 5-for-5 and certainly could stay unbeaten, but just think the top three may be a little more talented. Gem did win the Kentucky Jockey Club as a two-year old at Churchill Downs. Keep that in mind when you disregard my selections.

      That brings us down to Dullahan, Union Rags and Creative Cause. Certainly any of them can win. Heck, I think ultimately 11 have a chance to win this one. I envision Trinniberg going to the lead and dragging along Bodemeister and Hansen, who will try to rate but steam along a little faster than they want. One or both will go by Trinniberg as they approach the top of the stretch, but not explode. I then see Borel sliding Take Charge Indy up the rail to get a brief lead as they head for home. Daddy Long Legs being in the No. 1 hole may force Borel to use his horse a little more early though.

      It is then that the athletic Creative Cause will be making his move as well and Union Rags will have to find room quickly. If Creative Cause gets the jump, he may be able to hold off the talented, big, but sometimes robotic-running Union Rags. Rags could not run down Hansen in the Churchill stretch at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile or Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. I also like jockey Joel Rosario over Julien Leparoux, although the Frenchman has been really hot of late. Dullahan will come later and has a chance to run by everyone like Animal Kingdom. But I think he just gets third this time. After the draw Wednesday, I think Rags was hurt the most. Leparoux will have to be sharp to avoid checking in the first couple furlongs. My hope is that Rosario can settle Creative Cause in behind the speed somewhere around fifth, sixth, seventh just two wide on the back stretch. Apparently he does not like to be crowded too much, which scares me a bit, but if he can just find a nice spot outside he should be fine. What horse likes to be crowded anyway?

1.  Creative Cause, 2. Union Rags, 3. Dullahan.

      Remember what I said. I am no expert. Make your own picks with your own system, whatever that may be. I just have liked the big gray horse from California since I first saw him. Creative Cause’s daddy Giant’s Causeway won the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Hopefully, his son is ready for a big race.
     Tip: Go to KentuckyDerby.com, click on Derby Horses and there is video of past races and past performances for all the horses.

       My past Derby picks, (finish), winner and what it paid to win -- the last dozen years:

       2000: Aptitude (2^nd), Fusiachi Pegasus, $6.60.

       2001: AP Valentine (7^th), Monarchos, $23.00.

       2002: Perfect Drift (3^rd), War Emblem, $43.00.

       2003: Funny Cide (1^st), same, $27.60.

       2004: The Cliff’s Edge (5^th), Smarty Jones, $10.20.

       2005: Wilko (6^th), Giacomo, $102.60.

       2006: Bluegrass Cat (2^nd), Barbaro, $14.20.

       2007: Any Given Saturday (8^th), Street Sense, $11.80.

       2008: Adriano (19^th), Big Brown, $6.80.

       2009: General Quarters (10^th), Mine that Bird, $103.20.

       2010: Awesome Act (19^th), Super Saver, $18.00.

       2011: Nehro (2^nd), Animal Kingdom, $43.80.

       2012: Creative Cause, ??

       Mark Pukalo