Dancing With Fate, Again

There’s nothing worse in horse racing than betting on the favorite and watching him or her fade out of the picture, making you wonder why you didn't take a chance on that 10-1 shot that just cruised to victory.

Few dislike putting money on or picking the chalk than me. I always want to find a way to beat that 2-1 or lower runner, especially in a big race with a big field.

That is what makes the 140^th running of the Kentucky Derby so difficult, much like the 2008 race. On that day, Big Brown looked to be the class. You just didn’t want to believe the big colt was that good and he was breaking from the outside gate in a 20-horse race. But he roared home to pay a whopping $6.80 to win.

Is it 2008 again? California Chrome is the 5/2 morning-line favorite, coming off two powerful victories in the Hotel California by a combined 12 ½ lengths. If he gets a reasonable trip behind the speed, you can easily see him pulling away in the stretch under Victor Espinosa. Add to that, perhaps his most accomplished challenger Hoppertunity was scratched Thursday morning.

This is the first time in several years I don’t have a strong opinion. Part of that is because I hate eating chalk. Watching my pick take the lead at the top of the stretch in 2011 (Nehro) and 2013 (Normandy Invasion) before coming up short and my 2012 selection (Creative Cause) fail to fire despite being right there, I feel snake bitten. But one thing I won’t do is pick the favorite in this space.

So why not swing for the fences? And, yes, Dance With Fate.

Here’s a look at the progression to the top picks:

FIRST CUTS

Wildcat Red will probably be on the lead and stay there for a while, but with other speed horses like Chitu, General A Rod, Uncle Sigh, Harry’s Holiday and perhaps Vinceremos around him the pace will likely be too hot. I’ll toss them all. Commanding Curve may be the type of horse that plods home to complete a superfecta, but probably just isn’t good enough.

NEXT TO GO

Vicar’s in Trouble has shown versatility, so jockey Rosie Napravnik will have to be crafty to find the right trip from the rail gate. I just think she will have to use him a bit too much early. Danza is a bit scary after winning the Arkansas Derby with a late rush, but I’ll take a stand against him after only one breakout race and he is likely to be overbet. Track announcer Larry Colmus is probably salivating over the winning call for him though “Who’s the Boss!!...Danza!!” Tapiture seems to be regressing and does not have a top-level jockey while We Miss Artie is a battler, but just not fast enough.

OUTSIDE CHANCE

Medal Count should be running well at the end, but probably will start from too far back. I like the grittiness of Samraat, especially when battling for second in the Wood Memorial to earn me some exacta money, but he probably doesn’t have enough late punch to win. Intense Holiday only makes it this far because he has one of the best jockeys in the world on top of him in John Velasquez and could make a slow, but steady late run like Giacomo did. Ride on Curlin might be a factor with his versatility, but likely won’t beat them all.

THE TOP FOUR

I can definitely see a scenario where Wicked Strong bounds home with a late run, but a lot of things will have to go right for him. You have to think that veteran jockey Gary Stevens will put Candy Boy in position to see if he is good enough. Both have bad posts on the outside, but can get there.

California Chrome loses if Espinosa has to use him more than he wants to battle for position on the first turn or gets caught up trying to keep up with the speed in front of him. If he is a super horse, it won’t matter and a 19-horse field is irrelevant. If he is just a good one, he can be beat by a horse that’s finishing well. I might have chosen Hoppertunity if he was still there, but I’m going to take a chance at Dance With Fate. Fate beat Chrome in the Del Mar Futurity last September and seems to run his best on synthetics. But I believe Animal Kingdom came in with that type knock against him and rolled a couple years back.

It all comes back to 2008. I went with Adriano after being impressed by his strong finish on the Poly Track at Turfway in the Lane’s End and he never lifted a hoof, running 18^th in the Derby. Maybe I will be rewarded by going against the grain with Fate this time after he finished strong on the All Weather Track to win the Blue Grass Stakes a few weeks ago. What’s the fun in picking a 2-1 shot anyway?

12-5-20-18-19

LADIES DAY

The Kentucky Oaks has a similar scenario with a big favorite in Untapable, who breaks from the outside gate (13) Friday. In my opinion, there are more viable competitors to beat this horse though. I think Rosiland, My Miss Sophia and Fashion Plate have a chance, but will go with a longer shot in Ria Antonia. The horse has a serious turn of foot and, with the right trip, she can run them all down in the stretch.

2-4-13

- Mark Pukalo