Nothing Should Change Yzerman's Plan

By Mark Pukalo

The Tampa Bay Lightning are showing signs of life the last four games. They might not be dead yet.

There has been more energy, much more support defensively and a spirit - that has been inconsistent at best all season – resurfacing during the current 3-0-1 stretch. I don’t think the Lightning are playing defensively. They are just playing better in their own end and forechecking with more purpose to take pressure off their defense.

So, how should this latest run of solid play change Steve Yzerman’s mindset with two weeks left before the trade deadline?

Not one bit. Zero, zilch, nada, nil.

Three things can happen before the end of the season for the Lightning and two are good while another may be acceptable in a way. They could go on a historic run into the playoffs and be a real contender to get to the final four. Yzerman can take advantage of teams in or on the playoff bubble to clear salary cap space and get a jump on smoothing out the rough edges of this team. Lastly, the postseason run can end at three years and the team gets much-needed rest and re-evaluation time for another go in 2017-18.

There are many reasons why this season has not gone as expected. It’s many issues loaded into a big stew that does not taste very good. Captain Steven Stamkos was playing the best hockey of his life before going down with a knee injury. Ryan Callahan (hip) has also been absent much of the season and, although many would like more production from him, he is key as a leader, penalty killer and physical force. Throw in the fact that the Lightning had the most players in the World Cup during the preseason and they participated in the most playoff games the last two seasons. Then, there’s some underachievement. But we’ll get to that later - on both the players and the coach.

It has all led Yzerman to the point where change has to be made. But it’s not a rebuild. It’s a makeover. Doing nothing before the trade deadline would be silly and that doesn’t mean he has to make rash moves. He’s been fishing around for months already and there’s plenty of groundwork done. Now, it’s all about what other teams are going to do. It’s about timing.

There are things Yzerman can do now and other possibilities he should probably wait on until the morning of the trade deadline March 1.

These are all good players who have given their hearts to the organization and if there were no salary cap you might not mind keeping them around until the end of their deals. But salaries have to be moved to create space for next season and beyond.

Center Valtteri Filppula and defenseman Jason Garrison could probably help a playoff team or one on the edge. They can be dealt at any time - although Filppula owns a no-trade clause - and what the Lightning get back is not important as long as they don’t bring back a player with big contract past this season. They can even take back a little salary for next season if needed. The Bolts can still compete without them. Brian Boyle can move over to center to replace Filppula until Stamkos returns and Slater Koekkoek would step in for Garrison.

The big move they could make now is to deal Tyler Johnson. I know some fans out there won’t like it, but Braydon Point’s play at center makes Johnson expendable, especially with his contract up after this season. You could see St. Louis, Nashville, Los Angeles, Anaheim or even Vancouver taking a run at T.J.

It would not be surprising if center Vladislav Namestnikov or defenseman Andrej Sustr were moved either. They are still young players and they show flashes, but neither has taken a step forward this season and it has been one of the least talked about issues with this team. Namestnikov needed to emerge as a consistent performer at center when Stamkos went down and Sustr needed to raise his level of play with Garrison’s performance declining. Neither accomplished the goal.

The Lightning will probably have more evidence of whether they are legitimately in the playoff race on trade deadline day and that’s when you might see a few late deals.

It has been reported that teams have made some unsatisfactory offers for Ben Bishop already and Yzerman must decide whether to take what he can get or hope a team sweetens the pot on March 1. There are teams that could use Bishop down the stretch like Calgary, even Carolina or Dallas if they are still in the race. If the best offer is a fourth-round pick or worse, it’s probably not worth it. Teams might offer that before July 1 for negotiating rights.

The other much tougher question is what to do with Boyle if teams are offering tempting deals. In my opinion, the Lightning need Boyle on the team next season. But if you can get something good for him and sign him as a free agent on July 1 anyway, it could be a nice daily double. Yzerman must gauge what it will take for Boyle to stay before then. It appears the big forward loves it here. Could you tell him we’ll resign you for $9 million, three years on July 1? The risk is some team with cap space like New Jersey or Carolina may throw five years $20 million in his face? That’s a tough question to answer. To be honest, I’d just try to sign him now and find a way to protect him in the expansion draft.

Yzerman always seems to get more than expected in deals. But this time around, he probably has to lower his expectations and prepare for next season. Jonathan Drouin must be re-signed - soon. Ondrej Palat, too, although anything could happen if trading him might bring back a solid top-four righty defenseman.

Now, back to underachievement – one of the issues that has driven Lightning fans crazy all season. I called their play stale at times through the first half of the season, with virtually the same group as the previous two seasons. It seemed at times it was more mental than physical. Things have always seemed to fall in place for them the last two seasons. Nothing came easy this season and it seemed they failed to have the proper energy to push through.

I may be the only one out there that does not blame the goaltending at all. Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy have not been great, but most nights they have given the team a chance to win. Bishop’s mental game can’t be 100 percent knowing he’s likely somewhere else next season and the team played so poorly in front of Vasilevskiy when he was in net for nine in a row it was impossible to judge him. The Lightning are just fine in net with the big Russian. Those talking - some on radio - about keeping Bishop don’t understand. Even if they were to trade Vasy, they’d have to give Bishop $6.5-7 million and there’s no way they meet the salary cap offering him that much. It makes no sense.

One local columnist even mentioned that Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Drouin had underachieved in some ways. With all due respect, that’s crazy.

Hedman is having his best offensive season, was a serious Norris candidate until the team took a dive in early January and has been the best player on the ice for more than half of their games. Kucherov’s head seemed to be somewhere else for a few weeks in January, but he seems to be back in gear and headed toward a 30-goal season. While no one will argue that Drouin is still a “work in progress” like any 21-and-under player other than Connor “McJesus” McDavid, he has been one the team’s best three players all season long - in every zone on the ice. He will make a bad pass from time to time and have a quiet game once in a while, but Drouin has worked hard on his defense and is far better than he was as a rookie - and far better than anyone seems to want to give him credit for.

You can’t really blame the decline on any one of their core players. Some have performed better than others, but it has been more about consistency than anything else. While Palat hasn’t had the season you hoped for, he was probably the best player on the ice against Minnesota last week. It’s still my opinion that it all starts with the bottom four on defense. It’s not good enough over the long run. They’ve played better the last four games and Jake Dotchin has been a surprisingly nice addition. But that shouldn’t change Yzerman’s mind about fixing the group for next season. Braydon Coburn has been fine, but the other three spots are up for grabs.

It seems like I’m being too easy on them. Maybe I am. But taking a few steps back and missing the playoffs this season could be a positive in the end if Yzerman can create some cap space and make a few heady deals.

It does not appear one of his moves will be changing the coach. Jon Cooper can’t be blamed for the team’s demise due to injuries and the other issues, but there are still reasons why intelligent Lightning hockey fans who “know the game” can think maybe a different coach could bring a fresh outlook the Lightning needs.

You can’t take away the success from Cooper. He took the team within two wins of a Cup two seasons ago and within a pair of goals of the finals in 2015-16. But you can also say this: He had very, very good players. Lots of them.

I’m reserving opinion on whether Cooper should be fired after the season if the Lightning fade out of the race down the stretch. We’ll see. But there are many reasons to make the call to sack him.

*His forward lines don’t make sense sometimes and he has always seemed to play favorites, allowing certain players to make mistake after mistake while others are damaged by one. How can Erik Condra ever play on a scoring line?

*Cooper tends to throw out the second-best unit to start the power play too often. There are times when players on the better unit have just been out for a long shift. Understood. But, in my opinion, Kucherov and Drouin should be out first every time unless there is a major reason why they can’t be. There’s been too many times the other unit went out and had little pressure, but due to circumstances used up 90 seconds of the power play without Kooch or Drouin getting a significant chance.

*It was strange sometimes that Nikita Nesterov was scratched for a game or two because of poor play and the first game back he got the third or fourth most ice time. You can blame Rick Bowness for throwing Nesty out too much, but it’s Cooper’s job to manage that in the game plan.

*Cooper burned out Vasilevskiy during the rough stretch when Bishop was out. Kristers Gudlevskis should have played in the “scheduled loss” at Washington and Vasy could have sat in another third period or two when his defense was imploding.

*There are a few reasons to use seven defensemen in the lineup occasionally - especially in a back-to-back situation. But Cooper does it too much. It leads to constant line switching and no flow. Several times, a forward has gone down when he has started seven D for no reason and they’ve had to go with 10 up front.

*His constant line adjusting has often been due to injuries, but sometimes needless changes have come after one or two losses. Last season, it seemed that the Drouin-Stamkos-Callahan line was off to a nice start and were growing together. One or two so-so games from the trio and they were broken up – never to skate together again.

*Koekkoek was solid when he first came up from Syracuse this season and his play dipped slightly after about 10 games. Instead of realizing young defensemen are going to have a few rough games from time to time and letting him play through it, the former first-round pick was benched. With him sitting for a few games, Yzerman felt the need to send Koekkoek down so he could play. There were way too many nights Lightning fans had to watch Nesterov make gaff after gaff with Koekkoek enjoying popcorn or skating in a Crunch sweater.

*There are times when he seems to make quick, inaccurate decisions on who is at fault on the ice. This might have cost the Lightning a game against the Bruins recently. Cooper and every Lightning fan were livid over the goal given up at the end of the second period that gave the hated Bears a lead. He seemed to blame the Boyle-Filppula-Drouin line that was on the ice and severely limited their ice time in the third period. But when you look at the play, most of the fault lied with Sustr and Garrison. Drouin was down the ice and came back to help, but David Krejci had carried the puck 1-on-4 into the zone way too easily. The two defensemen had every chance to make a play and didn’t. Sure, you can’t bench two defensemen and play with four the whole third period. But you needed Boyle and Drouin on the ice and they were not a factor in the third.

Cooper has won plenty of games and he’s been a good coach when you look at his entire resume. But it is not out of the question to think about a change. Lightning fans have reasons to come to that conclusion.

The message to Bolts fans after the “bye week” is this. Enjoy the final two months. It could bring you something special. It could bring a fresh change or an exciting new player.

Taking one year off from the playoffs may give you a half dozen postseasons in a row and the Cup in the near future. The frame of this team is solid. It just needs a touch up and some luck.

But Yzerman cannot sit on his hands the next weeks, no matter whether his team continues to munch points or not. He needs to think about the future.