No Guarantees for Lightning Anymore

By Mark Pukalo

It looked as though this could be a long offseason with several surprising changes to the Tampa Bay Lightning roster.

In reality, it was short and quiet.

The Bolts shipped out an emerging offensive star (Jonathan Drouin) for a 19-year-old, potential star on defense (Mikhail Sergachev) and swapped a few veteran blueliners while signing another forward on the back end of his career (Chris Kunitz).

General manager Steve Yzerman and his brass obviously were banking on health, rest and hunger being the biggest positives for the 2017-18 season, instead of making more drastic changes to the crew of the USS Tampa Bay Lightning.

It is a logical course to take with captain Steven Stamkos returning from knee surgery, Ryan Callahan looking like his old self after enduring a lost season due to hip injuries and one of the world's best defensemen Victor Hedman leading the way. The Bolts also had a full offseason to rest and recover after two straight long playoff runs that took plenty out of them, leading to a slow start in 2016-17. The group that made it to Game 6 of the 2015 Cup final and Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2016 will have something to prove when they hit the ice for the season opener on Friday against Florida.

The question is, will that be enough?

You could make the case that they were a blown third-period lead at home against Arizona from making the playoffs with a skeleton group last season and adding Stamkos, alone, is enough to get them over the top. You can also argue that the group was getting stale, threw in way too many stinkers because of it, needed a bit more of an overhaul this offseason, and should have kept the team’s best playmaker (Drouin).

Yzerman has made the calculation the Lightning can find the spirit that pushed them to great heights from 2015-2017 and he may be right if two very important things happen. The Bolts need to be a lot better limiting quality chances in their own zone and get more consistent secondary scoring.

The defense is likely to be better, but how much? Assuming Andrej Sustr and Slater Koekkoek are the two players sitting out on the blue line to start the season, you add Sergachev and Daniel Girardi in place of Jason Garrison and Sustr. Jake Dotchin is also a year older after a solid debut in 2016-17.

Sergachev will get nine games before his rookie contract kicks in, so they can test his progress. Unless he struggles badly in the first few weeks - which would be surprising - I’m not sure what is gained by sending him back to juniors. If the AHL was an option, sure, let him dominate down there first. But I expect the Russian will be here all season and likely play with a veteran like Girardi or Anton Stralman, even Braydon Coburn at times. If the rookie becomes a solid contributor, that makes this defense much better. Everyone can play a little sharper, but he might be the only player that can make a big difference and that’s a lot to expect from a teenager.

The expectation and hope for the Lightning is their backend will be stronger in the second half of the season and find their stride for the playoffs. Unless there is a long-term injury or Sergachev is deemed not ready, Sustr or Koekkoek could be moved. Although, they could send Sustr through waivers at some point.

The offensive side of the puck is the biggest unknown for the Bolts, which is hard to fathom with talents like Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov leading a host of players that have had plenty big moments over the years. But with all that potential, Tampa Bay was just 14th in scoring last season despite a productive power play.

We’ll see how it works out, but I’m a little concerned about Stamkos and Kucherov playing on the same line for several reasons. First, it gives teams a chance to put their top defense pair against that line and, secondly, they are the teams’ top shooters and will be deferring to set up the other. They might get more shots as the top option on separate lines. In my opinion, you use them like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Put them together on occasion to mix it up and give the team a boost.

Those two will get their points no matter what and the other linemate will benefit. Coach Jon Cooper has tried Brayden Point there and Vladislav Namestnikov most days. I would place a savvy veteran like Kunitz in that position and push more skill to the other top-three lines.

Whatever the three-man units look like, the Lightning need contributions from all of them. Alex Killorn had a great first half and a rough second half last season while Ondrej Palat was quiet in the first 41 games and one of the team’s best in the last 41. Namestnikov has the skill, but went backward last season, and Kunitz had just nine goals in 71 games with Pittsburgh. Point must also avoid the sophomore slump.

The biggest question mark is Tyler Johnson. The 27-year-old center had 53 goals and 122 points with a plus-56 in two seasons from 2013-15. He netted 33 tallies with 83 points to go along with a minus-1 in the last two, but was still signed to a seven-year contract in July. You can say he wasn’t as healthy, but that’s an excuse. Johnson must live up to that $35 million contract if the Lightning are going to return to the level of Cup contender.

One of the spots he and others must step up the most is on the power play, where Drouin made his biggest impact. That unit may end up being a vital factor this season. The Lightning were sixth in the league in 2016-17 with the man advantage and need to stay in that vicinity.

Yanni Gourde helps the energy level on the team and should be a factor whether he is a center or on the wing. Faceoff specialist Gabriel Dumont, J.T. Brown and Cedric Paquette are on notice with capable Adam Erne and Matt Peca in the minors waiting by the phone. Peca seemed to earn a spot on the team in the preseason, but he did not have to clear waivers and was sent down. Mathieu Joseph, Alexander Volkov and Anthony Cirelli may get a chance as well at some point.

There is depth. There is talent. The key forwards like Johnson, Palat, Killorn and Namestnikov just have to be better while Point finds his most-productive spot and Callahan stays healthy.

It’s doable. It’s just not guaranteed anymore for the Lightning.

You notice, nothing about goaltending. While national writers seem to think there is a need for Andrei Vasilevskiy to prove himself, I’m not sure what they have been watching. Sure, he’s young, but there are no concerns here about him taking the No. 1 job full time and Peter Budaj will be fine as the backup for 25 games or so.

The Lightning will be in the mix. You just wonder if they still have that special something, the spirit that always gave them the tools to find answers, rally or break a slump before it got worse. We will see in the first few months of the season.

Cooper must make the right decisions, hold back from constant line shuffling and create the right atmosphere. Perhaps without the dilemma of where to put Drouin, he will settle in to a better rhythm behind the bench.

But this will ultimately be about the players. You know what you’re going to get from Hedman, Stralman, Stamkos, Vasilevskiy and Kucherov for the most part. But the other capable players - especially those with long-term contracts - must find their best form consistently.

If they can’t, it will be another pressure-filled playoff race for a wild-card spot.

If they do, Lightning fans could enjoy another long postseason.

Ultimately, I am a little skeptical. But I don’t think it’s out of the question that things can fall into place with character guys like Stamkos and Hedman steering the ship.