So Close, yet So Far from Glory

By Mark Pukalo

The end was somewhat sobering for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Even though there was plenty of time to get the equalizer, when Duncan Keith lifted his own rebound over Ben Bishop late in the second period of Game 6 for a 1-0 lead you wondered if the dream was over. Everything seemed even harder for the Bolts after that.

Maybe if Steven Stamkos’ shot had been a fraction of an inch lower in the first period or the puck hopped over Corey Crawford’s pad off the captain’s stick on his second period breakaway, or soon after Anton Stralman got his blade on Jonathan Drouin’s nifty cross-ice pass with a wide-open net, things would have been different. It just wasn’t to be – this time.

The highest-scoring team in the NHL in 2014-15, which jumped to a 2-1 lead in the Stanley Cup finals, would end up scoring only twice total in three straight losses to end its season. If they had been told the Hawks would score six times combined in Games 4-6, the Bolts would have taken that and expected at least a Game 7 at home.

There are no clear reasons why the Lightning lost to the worthy Chicago Blackhawks. They just faced a team that did not give them as many mistakes to capitalize on. You can pick your favorite whipping boy and cover him with blame or point to an injury, but it comes down to this. The Lightning was good enough to win a Cup. They just couldn’t finish the job.

The second guessers have some things to talk about. With Tyler Johnson obviously hurting badly, could coach Jon Cooper have broken up the Triplets to give him a smaller role and put Stamkos between Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov? Would Nikita Nesterov, Mark Barberio or Luke Witkowski have coughed up fewer pucks than Andrej Sustr? Could Cooper have chained Bishop to the net mentally in Game 5? Would Stamkos have contributed more with a few more shifts per game? Could Drouin have helped in Game 4?

All of those are legitimate, but the Bolts still could have won a Cup if they had made just a few more big plays. That’s why, in a strange way, there was something about the sorrow of coming so close and losing that did not leave as bad a taste in your mouth. The Lightning gained so much experience over the last two months and succeeded under the most pressure imaginable. They went an impressive 8-5 on the road in the playoffs and young players raised their games to amazing levels. There’s no reason why they can’t do it again.

While Johnson’s performance in Game 4 of the Detroit series might have saved Cooper and the season, there is no doubt defenseman Victor Hedman was the team’s best player in the playoffs. He was dominant in all three zones and played with the calm and poise of his countryman Nicklas Lidstrom, who was the best rearguard in the world over 10-15 years before he retired recently. I still get annoyed when I hear some dopey fan or a radio personality (from 9 a.m.-12 on WDAE) knocking him. Hedman has been this talented all along. If you couldn’t see it, you were blind or did not know hockey. He just needed time. Almost all defensemen do.

While everyone had their moments, Alex Killorn and Palat stood out to me. They were constant forces on the ice, whether they had the puck or not. I remember watching Killorn at Deerfield Academy years ago and knowing he would be an NHL player because he showed such smarts and versatility with a pair of soft hands. It wasn’t hard to see. Kucherov was also great at times in the postseason. He just needs to shoot more. J.T. Brown, who I doubted before the playoffs, lifted his game to the highest level in his career as well on the bottom two lines and Stralman showed why he might have been the most astute free-agent signing ever by GM Steve Yzerman.

The Lightning likely would have beaten any other team the Western Conference produced. The Blackhawks just had the most ideas, the most savvy, the most scoring options of any opponent Tampa Bay faced. Chicago could win in more ways and they found the right route through the maze of fallen bodies to win four times. Plus, they were run by two former Hartford Whalers – steady Joel Quenneville and Kevin Dineen. There are not many classier athletes I’ve met than Dineen, who should get another head coaching chance.

Yzerman said he didn’t expect major changes to the roster for 2015-16 -- but he wouldn’t just after a season like this. The Lightning are in good shape with the salary cap for the next campaign. That’s a nice position for Yzerman to be in, giving him a chance to tackle the long-term plan -- which could be much trickier.

Stamkos is the first priority, but that’s up to the captain on how long he wants to draw it out. Will he sign now and make plenty of money in a state that has no income tax? Not sure why he wouldn’t. Or will he wait? The question is, does No. 91 want one of those 10-12 year contracts for over $100 million or might he take a 5-6 year deal with a big early bonus? I’d offer five years at $55 million, with 15 coming in 2016-17. That way, Stamkos could get one more big deal after that in his early 30s.

I believe the Lightning will get his signature on a long-term contract this summer, but where will Stamkos play next season? He was productive on the wing with Val Filppula, but moving back to center would probably be the best for him and the team. You can start the season, assuming no deals, with Jonathan Drouin and Killorn on his wings. You can move Filppula between Callahan and perhaps Vladislav Namestnikov or Brown. Maybe Adam Erne moves in around midseason on the left. Cedric Paquette joining Brian Boyle and Brown or Namestnikov or Jonathan Marchessault on the fourth line would work.

The Bolts could also make a minor move for a veteran third-line center for one year and keep Stamkos at right wing. That center would be a good two-way player who can finish setups from Drouin. Paquette is a good player, but I think he would be more valuable in a fourth-line, penalty-kill role going forward. He can fill in on the third line if there are injuries. The Lightning brass also has to make a decision on Namestnikov. I think he is a good player to have around, but not sure he is the third-line center of the future and he does not seem to be as good on the wing. At some point, the Bolts need to have a top-nine center with size and more speed than Paquette to plug in. Brayden Point and Matt Peca could be NHLers at some point, but don’t have the frame necessary to fill that role.

I would listen to offers for Namestnikov if a Western Conference team is looking for third-line center and wants to give up a No. 5-6 right-handed defenseman in a package or two picks – including another second – this year.

Yzerman should lock up Killorn, who I believe has one year left on a deal, and Kucherov early. This might sound very strange, but going forward Johnson might be the player to go if the Lightning have cap problems when Stamkos, Hedman, Killorn and others get their deals. I think Palat and Killorn can do more over the long haul and Johnson, while a fantastic player, might not have the staying power as he continues to take abuse. Not saying they should dump Johnson, but if the Bolts need to trade someone with great value down the road, it might be him.

Trading defenseman Matt Carle is the most logical way to open up some cap space over the next few seasons. That won’t be easy though. Carle could help a handful of teams in the league (Dallas and Calgary?), but can they convince him to waive a no trade clause and find a team that won’t force them to take back much salary? A buyout might end up being the best option, but three years remain on the deal. There’s got to be a team out there that will take Barberio for a draft pick. He played pretty well this season and could be a strong No. 6 or 7 for plenty of teams in this league. The Bolts need to make room for Witkowski, Nesterov and perhaps Slater Koekkoek, and Barbs deserves a chance to play for another organization rather than serving popcorn here.

Brayden Coburn has one year left on his contract and Jason Garrison three at a reasonable cap number (4.6) for a top-four D man  Then there’s Sustr. Through most of the regular season he was showing progress and he played fairly well in the first two rounds of the playoffs. In the final two, he was exposed. The Lightning has to decide whether he is what he is or whether he is still getting better. I would put him in the Namestnikov category. If there’s a really good deal to be made, I’d include him. Plus, I think Witkowski has potential to be a decent No. 6-7 on the right side and Anthony DeAngelo is coming. I believe Dominik Masin (pronounced machine) can be a valuable defenseman as well on the left side. Can’t wait until he is ready.

The top two needs, if the Lightning is so inclined to shift some chairs around, in my opinion are – a right-handed defenseman with size that can push Sustr and Witkowski to a higher level or beat them out with steadier play and a third-line center who can play the wing if needed with one year left on the deal to take Brenden Morrow’s veteran leadership spot. I don’t know enough about the injury situation or the character of Matt Cullen, but perhaps someone of his ilk. Morrow might want to come back as the No. 13 forward, but I’d decline. He played well at times, but his value is too low at this point.

No need to talk about the goaltending much. Bishop proved he can win a Cup and I have fully learned how to type the name of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is going to be a monster in net. Adam Wilcox could be a good one as well and Kristers Gudlevskis might be solid trade bait down the road while adding depth.

Draft One Week Away

This year’s loaded draft offers the Lightning a chance to add to an already solid talent pool.

There are so many players between picks 28-64 that are very intriguing and the Bolts can grab three. I would love to see Swedish centre Joel Eriksson Ek fall to 28, but that is unlikely. Sons of former NHLers Jake DeBrusk and Jansen Harkins – two heady forwards – could be there, though.

I like the sound of DeAngelo’s teammate at Sault Ste. Marie -- Zach Senyshyn -- who scored 26 goals in mainly a fourth-line role with such a talented forward group, and might be there in the second round. The Bolts need to upgrade size up front and add another right-hand shot on defense along with a goalie in the nine picks they own.

Look for my NHL and NBA mock drafts by next Wednesday.

No depression

I was not crushed by the Lightning loss in the finals. Maybe I don’t get wrapped up in the whole journey like I used to.

The only thing is, when you get that close and don’t raise the Cup you have to look at how long and bumpy the road is to get back to that point again. I feel confident the Bolts will have the chance to make a run every year from now on though. The ingredients are all there. They just need a little luck and for a few of their prospects to turn into helpful players in the next few years.

And. … for Drouin to remain wearing a Lightning sweater.

The Case for Jonathan Drouin

By Mark Pukalo

It’s unfortunate that it has become a battle -- the Jonathan Drouin fans who think the upside far outweighs his lack of experience versus Lightning supporters who would side with the coach on any decision and pass the debate off as whining.

That’s what you often get with a prospect as good as Drouin -- whose vision, skating ability and hands are at the highest levels – if he doesn’t blast onto the scene. Just think if this was Toronto. Even in Tampa, many fans want too much, too soon.

I remember how many Lightning fans wondered why Victor Hedman wasn’t running people over with the size he has, how they highlighted every mistake and were blind to the many more good plays he made – even as an 18-year-old.

Drouin, who has played three of 21 postseason games, seems to be getting the same treatment. His negatiives are exaggerated and positives forgotten.

Hedman is now one of the best defenseman in the league and is in the running for the Conn Smythe Trophy if the Lightning should beat the Chicago Blackhawks. All he needed was patience.

Drouin will be a standout player in this league someday soon. He’s too skilled. He’s too fast. He’s too smart. Let’s hope it is in Tampa Bay. Trading him because the coach can’t find a role for him would be Steve Yzerman’s worst nightmare.

Jon Cooper has done a terrific job since taking over the Lightning. The way he has gotten his team back on track after poor performances shows what kind of coach he can be. I just wonder if he has handled Drouin in the best way possible. Drouin is not a draft pick that requires two or three years of intense development and dues paying in the American Hockey League. No. 3 selections with his kind of talent pay their dues in the NHL, and learn on the job. Some are used in big roles right away because the team is bad, ala Drouin’s former Halifax teammate Nathan MacKinnon with Colorado. Drouin did not get that kind of ice time -- only 13:14 per game.

The Lightning did not need to push him right onto the top two lines. That part I get. I also understand that Drouin does not boast top-notch defensive instincts yet. You can see his mind working when he is out there, moving to positions he is supposed to be. It just does not come naturally - yet. But, in my opinion, he is smart and fast enough to make up for his deficiencies and his offensive instincts can make way more of an impact than those who have taken his spot.

One television analyst lazily said, “He’s minus-4, he’s gotta come out.” Drouin had just come on the ice for two of the goals against, with no chance to get into the play. Ben Bishop knocked one puck in his own net when the former Halifax Moosehead was on the ice and the fourth was Brendan Gallagher’s goal in Game 3 against Montreal where Drouin did not seem to be at fault.

My concern is not necessarily Cooper’s decision to play seven defensemen and 11 forwards. If that is the plan, J.T. Brown has proved his worth, Brenden Morrow’s experience is helpful and Cedric Paquette provides a fourth center with Brian Boyle. My problem is the use of Jonathan Marchessault and Vladislav Namestnikov over Drouin. Namestnikov played 10 games in the first two rounds and Drouin three. It should have been reversed. That’s not to say Marchessault and Namestnikov can’t do a job. They just don’t give you the boost Drouin can and their advantage defensively is minimal -- in my opinion.

Ultimately, as many have said, Cooper’s mistake may have been failing to use Drouin enough during the regular season. Drouin would gain a bigger role briefly, then quickly be moved to the fourth line. While the power play struggled, he was barely used. Perhaps with more time during the regular season, he would have been a more finished product during the playoffs.

Drouin didn’t have a great season. He was picked by some to be the Rookie of the Year and had 32 points in 70 games. But it was nowhere close to, “wildy underachieving,” as one Tampa columnist wrote and he was near the top of the NHL in assists per minute of ice time.

Maybe I go a little too far on this, but I wonder why Drouin skated with the Black Aces and was not even on the ice for pregame at times – even when he wasn’t expected to play. It doesn’t seem like a No. 3 pick overall should be treated that way.

Yzerman has been a tremendous GM. He has done almost everything right (still don’t like what the Bolts got for Dustin Tokarski). The one thing I wish he would do is push his philosophy a bit more on his coaches. You definitely want your coach to run the show on the ice and make his own decisions 99 percent of the time. I just wonder if Yzerman could be a tad more hands on.

Maybe Yzerman did this behind the scene, but he could have demanded one thing from Guy Boucher before everything fell apart for a coach that brought the Bolts within one win of the Cup Finals in 2011. Yzerman could have stressed tweaking Boucher’s coverage scheme in the defensive zone (no, not the 1-3-1) which teams figured out after a while.

Whatever has happened in the back rooms this season, it appears to me that Drouin’s growth has been stunted. The hope is that, with a summer to soul search, both Cooper and Drouin will come back ready to move forward.

The Lightning can win a Cup without Drouin. No doubt. But one big advantage that the Blackhawks have over Tampa Bay is that they can get scoring from all four lines. The Bolts, like others have said, basically have two scoring lines and two checking units. They could use a left wing spark if they go back to 12 forwards.

I disagree with the idea that Drouin should be a top-six winger next season or not in the lineup at all. These are different days in the NHL. In the past, you had two scoring lines and a checking line to go along with the pluggers and fighters on the fourth unit. These days, you normally have two top scoring lines, a third with offensive ability and the fourth works as a checking trio. Drouin can play in the top nine -- preferably with two guys that can shoot the puck, because he will find them.

If Steven Stamkos moves back to center, you could also see a top nine that includes lines such as Drouin-Stamkos-Killorn, the Triplets and Erne-Filppula-Callahan at some point with Paquette-Boyle-Brown as a fourth unit. Not bad.

Someday, I believe, we will laugh about this period in Drouin’s career. That is, if he is working his magic in a Lightning uniform -- not putting up 80-plus points a season somewhere else.

The Year in Movies: 2014

By Mark Pukalo

I have spent time and money in the first half of 2015 trying to find a hidden jewel among the movies from the previous year that I did not see in the theatre.

Although there were a few additions to my top 20 and many to the so-so red box category, 2014 was not a great year for movies. Like some other years, there were more great acting performances than great movies – none better than the pick for the best film. In my opinion, there were eight standout films -- for various reasons -- and one, well, Soared.

Here’s a look at the Year in Movies 2014:

Worst of the year: The Monuments Men – A great cure for Insomnia.

Almost worst of the year: The Signal, Jersey Boys, Cavalry

Most disappointing: Neighbors, Wish I Was Here, The Gambler

Did not see: Into the Woods, Big Eyes, Life Itself, Two Days, One Night and Noah among others

Enough value to make it worth a $1.50 rent when there is nothing else to watch: Fading Gigolo, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, A Million Ways to Die in the West, A Most Wanted Man, When the Game Stands Tall, Fury, Nightcrawler, Foxcatcher (verrry creepy), White Bird in a Blizzard, Dear White People, A Most Violent Year, Taken3 (he has skills), Unbroken, Dumb & Dumber Too, Bad Words (might be a 2013 flick)

Most over-rated: The Theory of Everything

Honorable Mention: Edge of Tomorrow (decent sci-fi thriller), Lone Survivor (current war drama that makes you think), The Judge (Robert Duvall was solid; Downey, too), The Grand Budapest Hotel (humorous, but a bit over-rated). Let’s Be Cops (goofy comedy that didn’t annoy me), Cake (Jennifer Anniston as a woman dealing grief and pain), 50-to-1 (story about Mine That Bird’s upset win in the Derby), Elliott Smith: Heaven Adores You (Interesting documentary about a terrific musician who died way too soon), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Top 20

                                                   

20. Inherent Vice – Joaquin Phoenix plays a drugged out California PI in a mess of a comedy mystery movie that is so wild at times it makes you chuckle. Great cast. Josh Brolin is quite humorous as Big Foot, a weird cop.

19. Mockingjay – The third in the Hunger Games trilogy is basically a set up for the finale, but it has some interesting elements and the unbeatable Jen.

18. St. Vincent – Bill Murray is terrific in this mildly-entertaining film with a heart.

17. Ruddlerless – Interesting, imperfect movie that can really surprise you if you are not alert. Billy Crudup plays a father who loses a college-aged son. We’ll stop at that.

16. Kill the Messenger – Jeremy Renner plays Gary Webb, a flawed reporter who faces problems after his mostly accurate article about CIA improprieties in Nicaragua. It makes you mad and sad.

15. Gone Girl – Not sure I liked the ending all that much, but a strong murder mystery with an absolutely chilling performance by Rosamund Pike.

14. Interstellar – Matthew McConaughy plays an astronaut on the mission of a lifetime to save the earth, which turns a little too mystical at the end. It is too powerful a film not to be in the top 10, though.

13. American Sniper – I walked out thinking it was a good movie, regardless of the arguments both ways about Chris Kyle and the things left out in his story. These soldiers were in an impossible situation and the first priority they had was to protect each other. I won’t judge Kyle unless there’s concrete evidence against him. I honor his service.

12. Wild – Expected maybe a tad more depth to the film, but enjoyed Reese Witherspoon’s journey along the trail. She fully deserved an Oscar nomination.

11. Draft Day – Can everything happen this way? No. But it’s a fun ride with Kevin Costner playing the GM of an NFL team trying to turn their fortunes around in a unique way.

10. The Fault in Our Stars – Not sure I have yet wiped the final tear from my eyes after this one. It’s a touching film about a pair of amazing young people – played by Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort -- fighting cancer in their own way.

9. Beyond the Lights – A really good, under-the-radar film about life in the music business. Gorgeous superstar singer Gugu Mbatha-Raw needs to be saved and boy scout Nate Parker makes an attempt.

8. Selma – Extremely well done historical look at Martin Luther King’s march to Montgomery, Alabama.

7. Divergent – An interesting, action-filled science fiction trilogy begins with the amazing Shailene Woodley as the hero and the great Ashley Judd as her mom.

6. Boyhood – A two-hour, 45-minute journey through the life of Mason – from childhood to college. You have to have three free hours with no distractions and stay with it to be rewarded. I have liked it even more the second and third time through.

5. Whiplash – J.K. Simmons kills it as the Bobby Knight of band leaders, pounding away at prize drum student Miles Teller to try and get the best from him.

4. The Imitation Game – Terrific performances from Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley in a story about the under-appreciated mathematician Alan Turing, who helped crack the Nazi code and develop the first computers.

3. Begin Again – A washed-up music executive (Mark Ruffalo) finds a lost, but brilliant singer-songwriter (Keira Knightley) and makes music with her. Perhaps it wasn’t edgy enough for the Academy, but I loved it despite its imperfections.

2. Guardians of the Galaxy – Just a fun couple of hours with a unique group of “super heroes.” There is great music and enough smart, goofy moments to make you laugh. I AM GROOT!

1.   Birdman – Captain Obvious. Yes. An amazing performance by Michael Keaton as a former celebrity actor from a super hero series trying to find credibility on Broadway. As good as Keaton is, Ed Norton and the adorable Emma Stone cap the film with standout efforts in their roles.

Previous picks for Best of the Year

2013 -- Nebraska

2012 – Silver Linings Playbook

2011 – The Descendants

2010 – The Social Network

2009 – Inglourious Basterds

2008 – Frost/Nixon (The Wrestler, a close second)

2007 – Once

Best of Decade 2000-2009 – Almost Famous

Dancing With Fate, Again

There’s nothing worse in horse racing than betting on the favorite and watching him or her fade out of the picture, making you wonder why you didn't take a chance on that 10-1 shot that just cruised to victory.

Few dislike putting money on or picking the chalk than me. I always want to find a way to beat that 2-1 or lower runner, especially in a big race with a big field.

That is what makes the 140^th running of the Kentucky Derby so difficult, much like the 2008 race. On that day, Big Brown looked to be the class. You just didn’t want to believe the big colt was that good and he was breaking from the outside gate in a 20-horse race. But he roared home to pay a whopping $6.80 to win.

Is it 2008 again? California Chrome is the 5/2 morning-line favorite, coming off two powerful victories in the Hotel California by a combined 12 ½ lengths. If he gets a reasonable trip behind the speed, you can easily see him pulling away in the stretch under Victor Espinosa. Add to that, perhaps his most accomplished challenger Hoppertunity was scratched Thursday morning.

This is the first time in several years I don’t have a strong opinion. Part of that is because I hate eating chalk. Watching my pick take the lead at the top of the stretch in 2011 (Nehro) and 2013 (Normandy Invasion) before coming up short and my 2012 selection (Creative Cause) fail to fire despite being right there, I feel snake bitten. But one thing I won’t do is pick the favorite in this space.

So why not swing for the fences? And, yes, Dance With Fate.

Here’s a look at the progression to the top picks:

FIRST CUTS

Wildcat Red will probably be on the lead and stay there for a while, but with other speed horses like Chitu, General A Rod, Uncle Sigh, Harry’s Holiday and perhaps Vinceremos around him the pace will likely be too hot. I’ll toss them all. Commanding Curve may be the type of horse that plods home to complete a superfecta, but probably just isn’t good enough.

NEXT TO GO

Vicar’s in Trouble has shown versatility, so jockey Rosie Napravnik will have to be crafty to find the right trip from the rail gate. I just think she will have to use him a bit too much early. Danza is a bit scary after winning the Arkansas Derby with a late rush, but I’ll take a stand against him after only one breakout race and he is likely to be overbet. Track announcer Larry Colmus is probably salivating over the winning call for him though “Who’s the Boss!!...Danza!!” Tapiture seems to be regressing and does not have a top-level jockey while We Miss Artie is a battler, but just not fast enough.

OUTSIDE CHANCE

Medal Count should be running well at the end, but probably will start from too far back. I like the grittiness of Samraat, especially when battling for second in the Wood Memorial to earn me some exacta money, but he probably doesn’t have enough late punch to win. Intense Holiday only makes it this far because he has one of the best jockeys in the world on top of him in John Velasquez and could make a slow, but steady late run like Giacomo did. Ride on Curlin might be a factor with his versatility, but likely won’t beat them all.

THE TOP FOUR

I can definitely see a scenario where Wicked Strong bounds home with a late run, but a lot of things will have to go right for him. You have to think that veteran jockey Gary Stevens will put Candy Boy in position to see if he is good enough. Both have bad posts on the outside, but can get there.

California Chrome loses if Espinosa has to use him more than he wants to battle for position on the first turn or gets caught up trying to keep up with the speed in front of him. If he is a super horse, it won’t matter and a 19-horse field is irrelevant. If he is just a good one, he can be beat by a horse that’s finishing well. I might have chosen Hoppertunity if he was still there, but I’m going to take a chance at Dance With Fate. Fate beat Chrome in the Del Mar Futurity last September and seems to run his best on synthetics. But I believe Animal Kingdom came in with that type knock against him and rolled a couple years back.

It all comes back to 2008. I went with Adriano after being impressed by his strong finish on the Poly Track at Turfway in the Lane’s End and he never lifted a hoof, running 18^th in the Derby. Maybe I will be rewarded by going against the grain with Fate this time after he finished strong on the All Weather Track to win the Blue Grass Stakes a few weeks ago. What’s the fun in picking a 2-1 shot anyway?

12-5-20-18-19

LADIES DAY

The Kentucky Oaks has a similar scenario with a big favorite in Untapable, who breaks from the outside gate (13) Friday. In my opinion, there are more viable competitors to beat this horse though. I think Rosiland, My Miss Sophia and Fashion Plate have a chance, but will go with a longer shot in Ria Antonia. The horse has a serious turn of foot and, with the right trip, she can run them all down in the stretch.

2-4-13

- Mark Pukalo

Best of 2013 Movies: Going Old School

It was an average year for movies, but there were many tremendous performances.

Maybe it wasn’t as good as 2010, but it was better than 2011. The top six on my list probably aren’t as good as that group in 2012, but the depth is similar. What was unique about 2013 was there was a group of movies that were powerful and well worth seeing, but not memorable enough to make my top five like “12 Years a Slave,” which will probably win Best Picture.

I wish I could have seen all of them, but here are my opinions on the year in movies for 2013.

Still hope to see: August Osage County, Saving Mr. Banks, Labor Day, The Book Thief, Inside Llewyn Davis, Out of the Furnace, The Fifth Estate, Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom. … Comments: I don’t believe Lone Survivor counts as a 2013 movie and the only one I really wish I had seen already was the Coen Brothers’ Llewyn Davis.

The worst of 2013: The Place Beyond the Pines, Man of Steel, Jobs, World War Z, Anchorman II, The Hangover III, Good Day to Diehard, Gatsby.

Barely missed the worst list (each had something that saved it): The Conjuring, Don Jon, Olympus Has Fallen, Prisoners, Spring Breakers, Side Effects, Elysium, Machete Kills, Blue Jasmine, Enough Said. … Comments: Spring Breakers had an interesting story, but the movie was so incredibly poorly made. When Jessica Alba dies early in Machete Kills you know you’re in trouble. The gorgeous Rooney Mara almost saves Side Effects’ predictable story.

Honorable mention: Safe Haven, Star Trek into Darkness, The Internship, Oblivion, Iron Man 3, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Purge. … Comments: The Purge is not a movie I usually like, but it was so chilling and crazy that I almost thought it was good. Wolf was so much over the top that it became a farce to me, but there were some entertaining moments.

20. The Butler – Forrest Whitaker and Cuba Gooding were outstanding, but as others have said -- this was more like a good TV movie.

19. White House Down – Sure, it was Diehard at the White House, but it was way better than the other similar movie – Olympus Has Fallen – and the plot was somewhat believable.

18. Fruitvale Station – The true story of Oscar Grant III was well done and makes you very sad and angry. I needed more depth to the story to place it higher on the list.

17. Captain Phillips – The movie was strong and interesting until Tom Hanks got off the ship. After that, it just really dragged and the ending was nothing special.

16. All is Lost – Robert Redford performs an amazing one-man show on a sailboat, with no dialogue. Still would have liked a little background. Has a memorable ending.

15. Closed Circuit – Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall are terrific actors who carried a movie that was a little less intense and different than it appeared to be in trailers.

14. Philomena – Dame Judi Dench goes on a journey to find her long-lost son in a movie that has an interesting ending, but is a little slow to get going.

13. 42 – Really thought this early-2013 movie about Jackie Robinson was well done and that Harrison Ford might warrant some award recognition, but maybe I over-rated it a bit on first viewing.

12. Catching Fire – Jennifer Lawrence is tremendous again in the second of the Hunger Games trilogy, which made me really excited to watch the next. Could have easily been a few spots higher.

11. 12 Years a Slave – An amazing achievement by director Steve McQueen, which could win him an Oscar. That would be fine with me. The film just didn’t make me say “wow” when I walked out. But the Duck Dynasty guy should be locked in a room to watch it over and over and over and over.

--

10. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – The film doesn’t have anywhere near the intrigue and power that many I ranked between 11-20 have, but I just enjoyed Ben Stiller’s journey and especially those big beers in Greenland.

 9. Short Term 12 – Brie Larson and John Gallagher Jr. (The Newsroom) are young supervisors of a residential treatment center for youths who deal with problems in both their own lives and those of the kids. Could have been longer and answered more questions, but a unique story with a standout performance by Larson.

 8. Dallas Buyers Club – Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto provided virtuoso performances in a movie about the beginnings of the Aids epidemic.

 7. Gravity – Was unsure how Sandra Bullock would be in this role about survival on a space station after a disaster, but she nailed it as usual. I don’t care whether some of those things could have happened. It was a good watch.

 6. Rush – Ron Howard’s film about the Formula One racing rivalry between playboy James Hunt and intense Niki Lauda is incredibly compelling and entertaining.

 5. The Way, Way Back – I might be the only person that has this on their top 10 list for 2013, but I just loved this fun coming-of-age story near Cape Cod, where I vacationed many summers. Sam Rockwell should have been nominated for best supporting actor.

 4. Her – Some might call it creepy or weird, but this movie is about relationships, how we interact with each other and the exaggeration of what could happen in the future. I found it unique and fascinating. And, yes, I would date Scarlett Johansson’s voice.

 3. American Hustle – David O. Russell directed my pick for the best movie of 2012 and he puts together another pulsating movie, with tremendous acting, about political corruption and scam artists. Lawrence and Amy Adams are memorable.

 2. The Spectacular Now – Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley play absolutely rich characters in a unique story about a young man who goes on a journey of self-awareness after he spends most of high school living for the Now.

 1 – Nebraska – Alexander Payne, who directed my favorite film of 2011, weaves an amazing story about an aging veteran who is searching for something to live for in the final years of his life. His journey makes you laugh, think and cry a bit. That’s why it was the best movie of 2013 in my opinion.

                                                                   

Previous picks for Best of the Year

2012 – Silver Linings Playbook

2011 – The Descendants

2010 – The Social Network

2009 – Inglourious Basterds

2008 – Frost/Nixon (The Wrestler a close second)

2007 – Once

Best of Decade 2000-2009 – Almost Famous

OSCAR PICKS

Best picture – Well, you know my pick. But I think “12 years a Slave” will win.

Best actor – Bruce Dern (Nebraska). I think there’s a small chance he wins, but if not McConaughey is the pick. He was absolutely stunning in Buyers Club. Leonardo DiCaprio was great, but I just didn’t like the movie. Redford should have been nominated.

Best actress – I love Meryl Streep. But does she have to be nominated every year?!!! I’m rooting for Adams, but I think Cate Blanchett’s turn in a very average Woody Allen movie “Blue Jasmine” was pretty impressive.

Best supporting actor – Leto should win, but Barkhad Abdi was outstanding in “Captain Phillips.” Wish the Academy would be more open in its nominating process to give people like Rockwell (The Way, Way Back) and James Franco (Spring Breakers) a chance.

Best supporting actress – Jennifer Lawrence dominates the screen in “American Hustle” every time she is there and June Squibb is an absolute riot in “Nebraska.” Hope one of them win. Would like to see Rebecca Hall nominated one of these years. She was great in “The Town” and this year’s “Closed Circuit.”

Adapted Screen play – John Ridley for “12 Years a Slave.”

Original Screen play – Hopefully either Spike Jonze for “Her” or Bob Nelson for “Nebraska.”

The NHL Marathon Returns

Wealthy, greedy people do not have the ability to lock the doors and take the NHL away from us this season.

Hockey fans can enjoy an 82-game campaign -- with an intermission at the Olympics -- which will crown the true champion of a nine-month test. The team that navigates the ups and downs, makes the smartest personnel moves and peaks at the right time gets to drink from the Stanley Cup.

One thing that was positive about the 2012-13 season was the mostly wide-open postseason. Perhaps it was due to a 48-game slate before it, but the playoffs were a joy to watch. No matter whether you liked the teams or not, the Chicago-Boston final was well played and far more entertaining than the snooze fest of 2011-12 between Los Angeles and New Jersey.

My biggest hope for this season is that the players finally begin to grasp the idea that shots to the head and blind-sided hits can be avoided without taking away the physical nature of the game that we all love. The reason for a hit, a check, is to dislodge the puck and create space -- not injure players. Unfortunately, the Zac Rinaldos will still be around to cause unnecessary havoc. It would just be nice to see Brendan Shanahan’s mug much less this season.

Looking at my preseason picks last year, I did select Pittsburgh and Chicago to finish first in each conference. I also had New Jersey out of the playoffs. Unfortunately, I placed the Islanders and Maple Leafs 15^th and 14^th in the East -- respectively. Oops. With a clean slate, here’s a go at 2013-14.

METROPOLITAN

It’s difficult to pick against Pittsburgh in the regular season with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin healthy. The concern is whether Marc-Andre Fleury can find his game, because there is no viable backup on the roster right now. The rest of the division is impossible to predict with many variables.

The New York Rangers might play looser with John Tortorella gone, although they need Brad Richards and Rick Nash to have much better seasons and goalie Henrik Lundqvist to sign an extension. A healthy Brooks Laich and the good version of Mikhail Grabovski could help support Alex Ovechkin a little better in Washington, but the defense is still a bit thin after John Carlson, injury-prone Mike Green and Karl Alzner. The New York Islanders might take one step back after moving two steps forward. John Tavares leaped into the NHL’s elite last year and the Islanders should score. I’m not convinced they have the depth of talent on the other end of the ice to be substantially better than last year yet. Philadelphia should be able to score goals with the addition of Vincent Lecavalier and a healthy Scott Hartnell. If the defense and goaltending gets better, the Flyers could be a factor. That is a big IF. Columbus may be a stronger team this season and finish farther from a playoff spot in the tougher Eastern Conference. I can’t imagine Sergei Bobrovsky matching last season, so the Blue Jackets will have to be better offensively. Martin Brodeur’s last go-round will likely end similar to Mariano Rivera’s, but you can never count out New Jersey -- especially if some of their young players progress like defenseman Adam Larsson. Not quite sure where Carolina is going with its plan. This season, the Hurricanes will most likely spin into last place while they give up the most goals in the league.

Playoff teams – 1. Pittsburgh; 2. New York Rangers; 3. Washington; 4. New York Islanders

ATLANTIC

It hurts me to say that the Boston Bruins are the best team in the East on paper. Jarome Iginla replaces Nathan Horton and Loui Eriksson moves in for Tyler Seguin, which is probably a double upgrade. The one way the Bruins could fall is health, especially if goalie Tuukka Rask gets injured.

It will be tougher in the Eastern Conference on the ice for Detroit, but less travel will help. The key might be the development of young defensemen Brendan Smith, Jakub Kindl and Danny DeKeyser. The return of Jason Spezza from injury and the addition of Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur helps the Ottawa offense big time and the Senators were already good on the defensive side of the ice. Toronto was almost good enough to beat Boston in the playoffs last season and looks to make another step forward if it can keep the puck out of the net. Goalies James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier might not be the concern. It’s the Leafs’ inconsistent defense corps. Montreal will maintain its spot in the playoffs if it gets a better year from goalie Carey Price. However, if one team is going to fall off in this division it is likely to be the smallish Habs. If Tampa Bay can find a more consistent offensive-defensive mindset quickly, it can compete with the Islanders, Leafs and Canadiens for the final playoff spot. Steven Stamkos and Marty St. Louis will produce points and Victor Hedman is ready to be an all star on defense. Not sure Tim Thomas was the right way to go for Florida, but he might steal a win or two along the way to keep the Panthers competitive. The Panthers just need to stick with coach Kevin Dineen and this team will be fine down the road. Not really sure what the plan is in Buffalo either. The roster has plenty of holes and I don’t think anyone is going to give the Sabres what they want for Ryan Miller.

Playoff teams – 1. Boston; 2. Detroit; 3. Ottawa; 4. Toronto

Eastern Conference – Boston over Pittsburgh…. Value play – Ottawa. I think Daniel Alfredsson picked the wrong team.

CENTRAL

The Chicago Blackhawks kept all the key parts together for another run. The only question is how much the inevitable hangover will affect them. The only concern is if Corey Crawford reverts to his 2011-12 form and there are injuries up front, where they are not as deep.

Coach Ken Hitchcock must find the answers with talented, yet enigmatic St. Louis. The defense is solid, but their young forwards like Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Magnus Paajarvi must make the next step. Not really thrilled with the other contending teams, so maybe Nashville will bounce back with the addition of youngsters Seth Jones and Filip Forsberg and veterans Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg, Matt Hendricks and Eric Nystrom. The Minnesota Wild barely made the playoffs last season and not sure they got much better in the offseason unless youngsters Charlie Coyle and Matt Dumba emerge. Ryan Suter definitely proved last season he is almost worth the money he was given. Someday, Winnipeg will be a playoff team again and may this season if it can stay healthy. The Jets will need impact from newcomers Devin Setoguchi and Michael Frolik up front and improved defense in front of capable goalie Ondrej Pavelec. Dallas may have as good a chance to finish third in this division as the previous three, especially if center Tyler Seguin reaches his potential. It doesn’t seem like Colorado has addressed their problems on defense and in goal (Ryan Miller?), but Nathan MacKinnon will be fun to watch and Steve Downie is back.

Playoff teams – 1. Chicago; 2. St. Louis; 3. Nashville

PACIFIC

Even thought the Los Angeles Kings are sometimes boring to watch, they have a lot of talent and one of the league’s best goalies in Jonathan Quick. A healthy Anze Kopitar certainly helps as well.

Teemu Selanne’s final ride should be a smooth one with Anaheim, which has improved its depth up front even after the loss of Bobby Ryan. The Ducks will need to enhance their defense corps down the road though. It’s probably the last rodeo for San Jose before the team gets broken up, so you expect either its best or an implosion. There’s too much talent for the Sharks to fall out of the playoffs in the weaker West with a solid top four up front in Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Patrick Marleau. Tortorella will try to get Vancouver over the hump. Roberto Luongo will be fine with the NHL’s soap opera team, but not sure the Canucks can get past the first round with a GM who has no clue what he is doing most of the time. Mike Smith has a nice new contract in Phoenix and the Coyotes’ defense is too good not to get them back in the playoffs. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle rank near the top among the best one-two punches on defense in the NHL. Edmonton is another team that puzzles me. Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are terrific, but not sure where they are going overall (Steve McIntyre?). It will be fun to watch Karri Ramo play goal again in Calgary, but the Flames will likely be in the running for the first pick in the 2014 draft.

Playoff teams – 1. Los Angeles; 2. Anaheim; 3. San Jose; 4. Vancouver; 5. Phoenix.

Western Conference – Chicago over Anaheim…….Value play – San Jose

Finals – Chicago over Boston. This time, the Hawks score three goals in the final two minutes in Boston to create more agony for Bruins fans. That thought warms the heart.

A Different View on Vinny and the Draft

It was not a shock. When the Lightning announced that a compliance buyout would be used on captain Vincent Lecavalier Thursday, it just saddened me.

Yes, the contract was a bad one signed by a pair of horrible former owners. It would be great if the NHL allowed players to renegotiate once during a long-term contract and find a way to stay in a place they want to finish their career. It makes too much sense for the NHL, I guess.

This is not meant to bash anyone. I don’t claim to be an expert. It’s just an opinion and, honestly, it is not an emotional one. The things I disagree the most with that I've heard the last few days are the over-used phrases “It had to be done” and “It’s business.”

I don’t think it had to be done and, to me, when you talk about "business" that would lead me to believe that the Lightning are in trouble financially. That’s not the case. If the owner can commit to paying someone $32.7 million over 14 years for a player to go away, the business is fine.

There were other ways to create space for the next few seasons and keep an impact forward that other teams are salivating over to fill their hole at No. 1 or 2 center. He may get up to $5 million per after the bidding war.

One big reason they could keep Lecavalier’s $7.7 million hit (no, it’s not $10 million) is simply that the salary cap is not going to stay at $64 million forever. In fact, many estimate that it will be over $70 million as early as 2015-16, maybe even next season.

The Lightning could also clear $8.35 million of cap space the next two seasons if they bought out forward Ryan Malone and defenseman Eric Brewer. That would cost ownership about $24 million less than the Lecavalier buyout. Marty St. Louis’ deal ends after the 2014-15 season. Perhaps he retires or signs a cap-friendly, one-year deal for one more shot at a Cup at age 40. Vinny Prospal’s buyout money ($1.116 mil) is also off the books after two more years.

Mattias Ohlund’s contract ends after the 2015-16 season and Steven Stamkos will be ready for his 8-year, $80 million deal.

No doubt, the Lightning are hoping they can strike gold with some of the young players they have developed and will need money to sign them as time goes on. But, again, the cap is going to go up and any good GM has to make choices. Like other teams, some will move on and some won’t. The goal is to find guys like Dominic Moore, Sean Bergenheim, Tom Pyatt and Nate Thompson who outperform their contracts. That creates space.

There are ways to keep Lecavalier around for the final five, six or seven years. You hope he can be productive for seven more seasons, but if he retires after five you can bite the bullet for a few years. Don’t forget, you’re not paying him those seasons he is retired. You just have to deal with the penalty cap number and I don't think you should worry about something a half decade away. The cap is likely to be around $80 million by then and there can’t be a lockout.

Ultimately, the compliance buyout doesn’t earn them $7.7 million of space. They have to replace his skill and playmaking ability. He was the team’s best player in the first 15 games or so last season until a Sami Salo slap shot hit him in the foot and I’m not the only person to say that. Young players like Alex Killorn and Richard Panik seemed to work well with him. They may also ultimately have to pay another top-four defenseman good money.

It’s just my opinion. But I think it was a better option to just leave a Tampa icon in the lineup among the group of players you build around led by Stamkos, Victor Hedman and the third pick in the 2013 draft.

We’ll see what happens going forward. But I will miss Vinny, who is one of the classiest athletes I have ever been around in my 28 years of covering sports.

Mark’s Mock

I don’t remember a big buzz leading up to the 2003 NHL Draft. Ten years later, it’s recognized as the best group of players to ever enter the league.

This year’s crop of teenagers has been compared to that class, which produced such dynamite second-round picks as Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron and Jimmy Howard. A decade from now we will see how deep this draft really is, but there’s no doubt the evaluation will start with five so called “can’t-miss” players at the top.

Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, Jonathan Drouin, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin are recognized by most experts as elite prospects. Put them in any order. It’s not out of the question one slips to sixth, seventh or eighth because of needs, but all of them could be in the NHL next season.

Once you get past the first seven or eight players, anything can happen. Projections are all over the place. Goalie Zachary Fucale is the big wildcard. But after soaking up all the knowledge I can without interviewing players or watching tons of tape, here’s another mock draft. Why not? It’s fun. I expect there to be several trades, but here’s a guess if it stays the same:

Colorado – Seth Jones D Portland. My take is the Avalanche want to see if Florida will give them something to be able to take MacKinnon at No.1. I could totally be wrong. But you notice Joe Sakic is saying “if the draft were today” we will take a forward. A defenseman like Jones doesn’t come along very often though and the Avs could use one badly.

Florida – Nathan MacKinnon C Halifax. The Panthers let out a sigh of relief and grab MacKinnon to form a solid 1-2 punch at centre with Jonathan Huberdeau. If MacKinnon is gone, they just take Jones and smile.

Tampa Bay – Jonathan Drouin LW, Halifax. Nichushkin would be a good pick. So would Barkov for that matter. It’s just hard to pass on a player with Drouin’s skill and he just seems to be scratching the surface. The Lightning can add more size through trades.

Nashville – Aleksander Barkov C, Finland. The Predators need offense and they have to be better down the middle. Enter Barkov, who was one of the best players in the Finnish Elite League at 17.

Carolina – Valeri Nichushkin LW, Russia. The Hurricanes will find a spot in the top six for the powerful forward in 2013-14 and hope he can produce right away playing with a Staal brother.

Calgary – Sean Monahan C, Ottawa. The Flames start a busy first round by choosing a solid pivot who could be productive as a No. 1 or 2 down the road.

Edmonton – Darnell Nurse D, Sault St. Marie. The Oilers need to keep building up their defense and this physical force fits the bill perfectly.

Buffalo -- Elias Lindholm C, Sweden. The Sabres play it safe with a solid, two-way center who looks to be the type of player you win with.

New Jersey – Hunter Shinkaruk C/LW, Medicine Hat. My guess is the Devils will attempt to move down five spots or less and add an extra pick then choose Fucale as their goalie of the future. Maybe they just take him here. If not, they take a good offensive player.

Dallas – Bo Horvat C, London. The Stars could go any number of ways, which may cause them to move down a bit. But they go with the better all-around player after considering offensive forwards Max Domi and Anthony Mantha.

Philadelphia – Nikita Zadorov D, London. Could go with several different types of defensemen here, or maybe even Fucale, but perhaps the Russian monster fits.

Phoenix – Anthony Mantha LW, Val d’Or. The Coyotes need offense bad and here’s a 50-goal scorer from the Quebec League that may have more upside than Domi.

Winnipeg -- Max Domi C London. Tie’s son is a pretty darn good offensive player who can fit into the top nine for the Jets at some point.

Columbus -- Rasmus Ristolainen D, Finland. You can never have enough steady defenseman and the Blue Jackets have two more picks in the first round to grab some forwards.

NY Islanders – Valentin Zykov RW, Baie-Comeau. Hard-working Russian with good size who can score adds to the depth of the forward corps.

Buffalo – Ryan Pulock D, Brandon. The Sabres go with a forward their first selection, so they add an offensive defenseman with good size.

Ottawa – Alexander Wennberg C, Sweden. The Senators are looking for offense and this guy has good speed and creativity. Ottawa has had good luck with Swedes as well.

Detroit -- Curtis Lazar C, Edmonton. He fits the Red Wings mold with his character and an all-around game. He could go as early as nine or 10.

Columbus – Kerby Rychel  LW, Windsor. The Blue Jackets think about Fucale and another defenseman, but turn to a power forward who can score and has NHL pedigree.

San Jose – Samuel Morin D, Rimouski. Sharks grab a player who could go much higher if a particular team loves his upside. He is 6-7 and has good mobility.

Toronto – Ryan Hartman RW, Plymouth. An agitating-type player with a consistent game. He played well in helping the United States win the World Junior Championship.

Calgary – Zachary Fucale G, Halifax. If the Devils, Flyers, Sabres and the Islanders don’t grab the Memorial Cup winning netminder, GM Jay Feaster looks to the heavens and gets to the podium quick to take this winner.

Washington – Frederick Gauthier C Rimouski. The Capitals could use a player like Gauthier, who has good size and the ability to fill a third-line center role.

Vancouver – Josh Morrissey D, Prince Albert. The Canucks need a lot of things, but a puck-moving defenseman who can play on the power play in the future is one of them.

Montreal – Adam Erne LW, Quebec. The Canadiens can use more speed and size and this Connecticut-born player may provide it in a few years.

Anaheim – Madison Bowey D, Kelowna. There are several different types of defensemen on the board and the Ducks go for perhaps the best athlete of the bunch.

Columbus – Andre Burakowsky LW, Sweden. The Blue Jackets are in the position to take a chance here with their third pick and grab a potential top-six forward who did not play much this season for various reasons.

Calgary – Shea Theodore D, Seattle. The Flames take an offensive defenseman who needs to get better in his own end to complete a productive first round.

Dallas – Ian McCoshen D Waterloo. A shutdown, workhorse defenseman who can provide more room for the Stars’ skilled players.

Chicago – Jacob De La Rose C Sweden. The Stanley Cup champs could take more of a project here, but a safe, solid pick like this works as well.