Sometimes It Pays to Overpay

       My first reaction to the Matt Carle’s free-agent contract with the Lightning was -- “it’s too much.”

       A few minutes later after it all settled in, I thought, well, about the same. It really hasn’t changed since.

       However, in the final analysis, this is the NHL world we live in. When a player, especially a solid defenseman who can skate, is an unrestricted free agent they are likely to get overpaid. The job for general managers is to find the right player who can do enough things to help them win games and log enough quality minutes to ease the pressure on others. In the end, victories justify the contract.

      Ryan Suter is that type of defenseman, who does everything well. Carle isn’t Suter, but he has evolved into a pretty solid top-four rearguard since being traded by the Bolts after 12 games during the chaotic beginning of the 2008-09 season. Carle may be more worth $3.5-4 million than an average of $5.5 at this point, but there seems to be enough room for growth in his game and he fills a big need with his puck-moving prowess. Yes, he played a lot with Chris Pronger in Philadelphia. But he’s been +56 combined the last four regular seasons and has played 84 playoff games in his career.

      The Bolts also spent $7.5 million on a two-year deal for veteran defenseman Sami Salo. I’ve always been a fan of Salo, especially his work on the power play. His accurate rocket of a shot is always dangerous and his right-handed passing should make the Lightning’s play with the man advantage much better. Is he overpaid? Sure. But, again, if he can help lift the Bolts power play from the bottom to the top 10 in the league they are likely a playoff team again. The 37-year old just needs to stay healthy.

      Lightning GM Steve Yzerman could have waited for the trade market to settle in, but it was difficult to tell when teams would have made certain players available. Several hockey people also brought up a point that makes a lot of sense, something I hadn’t really thought of much before. The Bolts may have paid a little extra to sign their two free-agent defensemen, but they didn’t have to give up any assets to do it. Chicago’s Niklas Hjalmarsson might have cost a couple good young players or one player and a second-round pick. They also may have had to take on a player with one year left on a contract and then lost him.

     Instead, the Bolts gave promising, young defensemen Mark Barberio and Radko Gudas a little more time to develop. In this day an age of the NHL, injuries are going to occur and both may still get their NHL feet wet this season.

     This defense corps’ overall level of physicality is a slight concern. Keith Aulie could ease that worry if he has a breakout season. This will be a very big training camp for his career. Everyone just needs to lift their game a bit physically on the backline and the capability is there. The Bolts don’t need to be running players through the boards like some fans want. But they will have to be a little tougher to play against in their zone than last season if they are to improve their goals-against.

     Victor Hedman-Carle

     Eric Brewer-Salo/Brian Lee

     Salo/Lee-Aulie/Brendan Mikkelson/Marc-Andre Bergeron.

     That could be the defense to start, but certainly Gudas, Barberio, Evan Oberg and Matt Taormina will get looks in the preseason. My bet is Salo plays the point with four forwards on the No. 1 power-play unit. Brewer, Hedman, Lee and perhaps Aulie get the work on the penalty kill. Carle gets most of his time at even strength and perhaps duty with the second power play group. If Mattias Ohlund returns at some point, it can only be a plus.

     The Lightning is likely done adding to their roster, although anything can happen. There are plenty of young players that could battle for two or three rosters spots up front. J.T. Brown, Alex Killorn and Brett Connolly lead that group and Cory Conacher will also have a chance. Tyler Johnson had a great year in Norfolk as well and Pierre-Cedric Labrie did not look out of place in Tampa last season.  The acquisition of physical forward B.J. Crombeen on Tuesday could make J.T. Wyman's chances of making the opening night roster much more difficult. It might also give the Lightning a chance to ease Dana Tyrell into the lineup after knee surgery.
      In my opinion, the Bolts don’t need another “top-six” forward. Coach Guy Boucher has enough to work with. If I were to bet on a forward lineup right now, I think Brown and Killorn will make it while Connolly and Conacher go down to Syracuse to put up numbers, add confidence and get ready for a call-up. There’s really no set lineup with Boucher, but here’s one possible scenario:

     Teddy Purcell-Steven Stamkos-Benoit Pouliot

     Brown-Vincent Lecavalier-Martin St. Louis

     Killorn-Tom Pyatt-Ryan Malone

     Tyrell/Crombeen/Wyman-Nate Thompson-Adam Hall

     Malone would certainly get power-play time and some shifts with Stamkos in this scenario, but he seemed to play well with Pyatt for a period of time last season.

      It’s all speculation now, but the options up front are plentiful. If the defense improves and Anders Lindback grasps his opportunity between the pipes, it should be a fun 2012-13 season in Bolts Land. They also have about $7 million of cap space to work with at the deadline.

      Development Camp: When you finish a week with the prospects, you want to come out impressed – especially by your top picks.

      That was definitely the case for the Bolts last week. Defenseman Slater Koekkoek showed his skating ability, hockey sense and shot. Andrey Vasilevskiy turned heads in net with his size and tremendous athletic ability. And, he’s still just 17 for another couple weeks.

      The other 2012 draft picks looked just fine, but it was also good to see the progress of the college players. Defenseman Luke Witkowski, a real pain to play against, is a year away from a pro contract. Jimmy Mullin turned it up the second half of his freshman season at Miami and Matthew Peca had almost 40 points as a rookie at Quinnipiac. Cornell defenseman Kirill Gotovets is an outstanding skater, Brendan O’Donnell is recovering from a shoulder injury and should be ready for his second season at North Dakota and goalie Adam Wilcox starts his freshman year at Minnesota.

      Purcell signs: The Lightning wrapped up Teddy Purcell for the next four years on Tuesday, signing him to a three-year extension.

     The move avoids allowing Purcell to go on the open market after this season, when someone could throw a bloated deal in front of him. Purcell was terrific in the 2011 playoffs and had 43 points in his last 39 games last season. Reportedly, the deal is for an average of $4.5 mil. The important thing is it buys out three unrestricted years.

      The Bolts should extend Nate Thompson now as well.