There’s nothing worse in horse racing than
betting on the favorite and watching him or her fade out of the picture, making
you wonder why you didn't take a chance on that 10-1 shot that just cruised to
victory.
Few dislike putting money on or picking the chalk
than me. I always want to find a way to beat that 2-1 or lower runner,
especially in a big race with a big field.
That is what makes the 140th running
of the Kentucky Derby so difficult, much like the 2008 race. On that day, Big
Brown looked to be the class. You just didn’t want to believe the big colt was
that good and he was breaking from the outside gate in a 20-horse race. But he
roared home to pay a whopping $6.80 to win.
Is it 2008 again? California Chrome is the 5/2
morning-line favorite, coming off two powerful victories in the Hotel California
by a combined 12 ½ lengths. If he gets a reasonable trip behind the speed, you
can easily see him pulling away in the stretch under Victor Espinosa. Add to
that, perhaps his most accomplished challenger Hoppertunity was scratched
Thursday morning.
This is the first time in several years I don’t
have a strong opinion. Part of that is because I hate eating chalk. Watching my
pick take the lead at the top of the stretch in 2011 (Nehro) and 2013 (Normandy
Invasion) before coming up short and my 2012 selection (Creative Cause) fail to
fire despite being right there, I feel snake bitten. But one thing I won’t do
is pick the favorite in this space.
So why not swing for the fences? And, yes, Dance
With Fate.
Here’s a look at the progression to the top picks:
FIRST CUTS
Wildcat Red will probably be on the lead and stay
there for a while, but with other speed horses like Chitu, General A Rod, Uncle
Sigh, Harry’s Holiday and perhaps Vinceremos around him the pace will likely be
too hot. I’ll toss them all. Commanding Curve may be the type of horse that
plods home to complete a superfecta, but probably just isn’t good enough.
NEXT TO GO
Vicar’s in Trouble has shown versatility, so
jockey Rosie Napravnik will have to be crafty to find the right trip from the
rail gate. I just think she will have to use him a bit too much early. Danza is
a bit scary after winning the Arkansas Derby with a late rush, but I’ll take a
stand against him after only one breakout race and he is likely to be overbet.
Track announcer Larry Colmus is probably salivating over the winning call for
him though “Who’s the Boss!!...Danza!!” Tapiture seems to be regressing and does
not have a top-level jockey while We Miss Artie is a battler, but just not fast
enough.
OUTSIDE CHANCE
Medal Count should be running well at the end, but probably will start from too far back. I like the grittiness of Samraat, especially when
battling for second in the Wood Memorial to earn me some exacta money, but he
probably doesn’t have enough late punch to win. Intense Holiday only makes it
this far because he has one of the best jockeys in the world on top of him in
John Velasquez and could make a slow, but steady late run like Giacomo did. Ride
on Curlin might be a factor with his versatility, but likely won’t beat them
all.
THE TOP FOUR
I can definitely see a scenario where Wicked
Strong bounds home with a late run, but a lot of things will have to go right
for him. You have to think that veteran jockey Gary Stevens will put Candy Boy
in position to see if he is good enough. Both have bad posts on the outside,
but can get there.
California Chrome loses if Espinosa has to use
him more than he wants to battle for position on the first turn or gets caught
up trying to keep up with the speed in front of him. If he is a super horse, it
won’t matter and a 19-horse field is irrelevant. If he is just a good one, he
can be beat by a horse that’s finishing well. I might have chosen Hoppertunity
if he was still there, but I’m going to take a chance at Dance With Fate. Fate
beat Chrome in the Del Mar Futurity last September and seems to run his best on
synthetics. But I believe Animal Kingdom came in with that type knock against
him and rolled a couple years back.
It all comes back to 2008. I went with Adriano
after being impressed by his strong finish on the Poly Track at Turfway in the
Lane’s End and he never lifted a hoof, running 18th in the Derby.
Maybe I will be rewarded by going against the grain with Fate this time after
he finished strong on the All Weather Track to win the Blue Grass Stakes a few
weeks ago. What’s the fun in picking a 2-1 shot anyway?
12-5-20-18-19
LADIES DAY
The Kentucky Oaks has a similar scenario with a
big favorite in Untapable, who breaks from the outside gate (13) Friday. In my
opinion, there are more viable competitors to beat this horse though. I think Rosiland,
My Miss Sophia and Fashion Plate have a chance, but will go with a longer shot
in Ria Antonia. The horse has a serious turn of foot and, with the right trip, she
can run them all down in the stretch.
2-4-13
- Mark Pukalo
