The 139th
running of Kentucky Derby is filled with top-end horses that all look similar
in a lot of ways.
Some will be
just off the early lead, others will be in the middle of the pack and one
contender is likely going to start last. Which of those talented horses can
work out the best trip, get a little lucky and have the proper energy in the
stretch? That is what the bettor has to decide.
I picked
Creative Cause in this space last year and he met the first two criteria. He
did not explode in the stretch like three of the horses that went by him and
could not catch Bodemeister. CC finished a solid fifth, but showed he didn’t
have what it takes to win a big race like the Derby or the Preakness (third).
When my less
comprehensive handicapping (this year) was done this week, I felt that eight horses had a real chance to win the roses.
The puzzle
with this race is what will happen on the front end early on. Falling Sky and
Giant Finish are only true (somewhat) cheap speed horses in the race and they
cannot really be classified as speedballs, while Oxbow may be forced to show
some early speed as well from the No. 2 gate. With that being the case, would
two of the favorites – Verrazano and Goldencents – have the guts to take the
lead and try to go the route on a more moderate pace than most Derbys? Heck,
Bodemeister almost did it last year and he went faster than this group would
likely want to run.
My guess is
that those two contenders will attempt to find a spot behind Falling Sky and
Giant Finish, trying to save ground and juice for a sprint in the final half
mile. We’ll see, but this race could totally change on the backstretch.
It’s been a
while since I picked a Derby winner, although Nehro finished second in 2011. I
might have selected Barbaro on top in 2006, but I truly can’t remember my No. 1
choice in that race. You just try to make the most educated guess you can.
It’s hard to
know for sure how much the predicted rain will affect the track at this point,
but we’ll take a run at it again.
First tosses: Black Onyx doesn’t seem to have the ability to run with these and
he drew the rail, while D. Wayne Lukas’ Oxbow
didn’t show much in the Arkansas Derby. Until they win one of these, I’m
going to let the European horses beat me so Lines
of Battle is out of my equation. If any horse other than the favorites has
a shot to surprise everyone on the front end its Falling Sky, but I can’t see him or Giant Finish sticking around until the end. Frac Daddy is a horse that might win a big race this summer, but he
seems a bit raw right now, and Golden
Soul just doesn’t look good enough. Throw Fear the Kitten out if he draws in as well. That gets us down to
13. If any of these can pull a real shocker, it would be Frac Daddy because he
definitely has ability.
Difficult second tosses: All five of
these could get it done on their best day and can be trifecta and superfecta
fillers as well. They just may be a cut below the top thoroughbreds. Todd
Pletcher’s Overanalyze did not
impress me in his Arkansas Derby win, but who knows? Pletcher has always
thought Palace Malice had a big race
in him. He’s been right there lately, but hasn’t been able to put it all together.
He just looks like a horse that won’t do better than third. Charming Kitten made a nice run in the
Bluegrass, but Java’s War sped right by him. Lukas’ Will Take Charge ran a heck of race in the Rebel, but has been off since
March 16. I like Vyjack to be in the hunt from the 20 post, but trainer Rudy
Rodriguez said his horse doesn’t like carrots. He doesn’t like carrots? How can
a horse win the Derby without loving carrots?
Getting down to the big five: A friend
really likes Itsmyluckyday to be in
the top two. I’m not so high on him, but upon further review I must move him up
just outside the top five because he could improve off his last race. Closers Mylute and Java’s War likely will not get the pace they need to unleash a big run and
there are enough good stalkers that will beat them to the punch.
Mylute’s jockey Rosie Napravnik is crafty though and may keep the horse a
little closer. Java’s War made one fantastic run in the Bluegrass as well. I’ll
toss these two, but you can be sure they’ll be in many of my trifectas.
Two more down: Both morning-line
favorite Orb and Goldencents have great chances if the races fall their way. Orb
doesn’t get my top pick because he looks strong in the stretch, but not
particularly fast. He’s more of a steady plodder. Although his jockey Joel
Rosario is red hot, I just think my top three will be better. If Kevin Krigger
keeps Goldencents just off the speed, gets the jump on the others and closes
like he did in the Santa Anita Derby he can win as well. I’m just going to go
against that happening.
The Tri: That leaves us with Verrazano, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary.
If the race falls like I see it, Verrazano will take the lead heading for home
and the other two will try to run him down. And, as good as Verrazano is, I
think they will both catch him -- or at least one will. I’m going to go with
Normandy Invasion to pass Verrazano near the wire with Javier Castellano
aboard. He was making up ground on Verrazano to finish second in the Wood
Memorial and the extra 1/8 of a mile may give him time to finish the job.
Four of my
top six last year finished in the top five. Of course, my pick was fifth. We’ll
see. You never know what will happen in a 20-horse field. The list of great
horses that didn’t get the right trip in the Derby is long. You take your shot
and have fun with it.
Good luck!
- Mark
Pukalo
