By Mark Pukalo
Different team, same major key to victory.
Listen, it might seem simple to say "limit the turnovers" and you have a chance to move into the Eastern Conference finals, but it really is that easy to analyze for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Florida Panthers are a lot like the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a lethal offense that is unrelenting and speedy on the counter. The Cats will create plenty of chances, but if you feed them more with sloppy play in the neutral zone and over commit in the offensive end, you will go hungry on the way to the golf course.
When you are playing Columbus, the New York Islanders and last year's version of Montreal, turnovers are not quite as deadly. Toronto, Florida and perhaps Colorado along with the others in the West, are different animals.
The Lightning can get at the Florida defense when the second-round series begins Tuesday night. They just have to be patient and avoid the East-West play that creeps into their game at times. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy cannot save them all the time. But if you give him a chance to win the series like the Bolts did in Game 6 and 7 against Toronto, he will.
My key players in the series? Mikhail Sergachev (yes, again) and Anthony Cirelli.
Special teams will be important, Clean exits from the zone are essential and the Lightning need Brayden Point (lower body) to heal fast. I would start the series with seven defensemen in Game 1. Riley Nash adds nothing. If the Syracuse Crunch loses Tuesday, they can have Alex Barre-Boulet, Gemel Smith, Remi Elie or others to plug in for Point.
Tampa Bay has two games in Sunrise to try and get the home ice advantage on its side. Let's hope they have recovered from a long, tough series. I'm not sure I have, yet. But, I have the Bolts in 6 and a date with New York Rangers in the conference finals. Colorado and Edmonton are my picks in the West.
Enjoy. Would not be surprised if we get three or four more seven-game series.
Recap of first round keys
1. Give up the same amount or fewer quality chances as the Leafs surrender. If you do that, goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will outplay Jack Campbell and win the series. If the Bolts get sloppy in their own end and give up too many prime chances, the Leafs will make them pay- no matter who is in net.
PARTIAL PASS - It was close enough in Game 7, although they gave up too many quality chances overall.
2. Win the special teams battle. Both squads have tremendous talent on the power play. The Bolts need to be able to kill off the key chances and capitalize when they get opportunities - especially early and late in the game.
PASS. Lightning were 7 for 33 with the extra man despite that nightmare in Game 1, and the Leafs were just 4 for 28. The penalty killing was great. I guess they did not need Mathieu Joseph afterall.
3. Mikhail Sergachev must be at his best in this series. The talented Russian can be a major factor at both ends of the ice, but he has to make smart plays in all three zones.
FAIL. Sergachev was just -2 in the series, but he was a turnover machine. Give Sergy credit, though. Game 7 was by far his best effort.
4. Know where Matthews is at all times. Make Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting beat you if they can.
PASS IN WINS. Matthews had nine points and 29 shots. But, #34 had 15 shots in the three Leaf wins and 14 in the four Lightning victories. Sometimes math tells a story.
5. It would be great if Brayden Point becomes a thorn in Toronto's side, especially if Steven Stamkos remains between Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. The Bolts can't just depend on Stammer, Kooch and Victor Hedman, Everyone must contribute and a pesky, healthy Pointer can get things done with anyone/
PASS. Point was one of the Bolts' best forwards in the series before his injury, despite a -6 rating. He had two goals, including the Game 6 OT winner, and two assists.
6. Start games fast.
MOSTLY PASS. Except for Game 1, they did pretty good with this. They did not sustain most games, though. They need a nice clean, solid start in games versus the Panthers.
