Dancing With Fate, Again

There’s nothing worse in horse racing than betting on the favorite and watching him or her fade out of the picture, making you wonder why you didn't take a chance on that 10-1 shot that just cruised to victory.

Few dislike putting money on or picking the chalk than me. I always want to find a way to beat that 2-1 or lower runner, especially in a big race with a big field.

That is what makes the 140^th running of the Kentucky Derby so difficult, much like the 2008 race. On that day, Big Brown looked to be the class. You just didn’t want to believe the big colt was that good and he was breaking from the outside gate in a 20-horse race. But he roared home to pay a whopping $6.80 to win.

Is it 2008 again? California Chrome is the 5/2 morning-line favorite, coming off two powerful victories in the Hotel California by a combined 12 ½ lengths. If he gets a reasonable trip behind the speed, you can easily see him pulling away in the stretch under Victor Espinosa. Add to that, perhaps his most accomplished challenger Hoppertunity was scratched Thursday morning.

This is the first time in several years I don’t have a strong opinion. Part of that is because I hate eating chalk. Watching my pick take the lead at the top of the stretch in 2011 (Nehro) and 2013 (Normandy Invasion) before coming up short and my 2012 selection (Creative Cause) fail to fire despite being right there, I feel snake bitten. But one thing I won’t do is pick the favorite in this space.

So why not swing for the fences? And, yes, Dance With Fate.

Here’s a look at the progression to the top picks:

FIRST CUTS

Wildcat Red will probably be on the lead and stay there for a while, but with other speed horses like Chitu, General A Rod, Uncle Sigh, Harry’s Holiday and perhaps Vinceremos around him the pace will likely be too hot. I’ll toss them all. Commanding Curve may be the type of horse that plods home to complete a superfecta, but probably just isn’t good enough.

NEXT TO GO

Vicar’s in Trouble has shown versatility, so jockey Rosie Napravnik will have to be crafty to find the right trip from the rail gate. I just think she will have to use him a bit too much early. Danza is a bit scary after winning the Arkansas Derby with a late rush, but I’ll take a stand against him after only one breakout race and he is likely to be overbet. Track announcer Larry Colmus is probably salivating over the winning call for him though “Who’s the Boss!!...Danza!!” Tapiture seems to be regressing and does not have a top-level jockey while We Miss Artie is a battler, but just not fast enough.

OUTSIDE CHANCE

Medal Count should be running well at the end, but probably will start from too far back. I like the grittiness of Samraat, especially when battling for second in the Wood Memorial to earn me some exacta money, but he probably doesn’t have enough late punch to win. Intense Holiday only makes it this far because he has one of the best jockeys in the world on top of him in John Velasquez and could make a slow, but steady late run like Giacomo did. Ride on Curlin might be a factor with his versatility, but likely won’t beat them all.

THE TOP FOUR

I can definitely see a scenario where Wicked Strong bounds home with a late run, but a lot of things will have to go right for him. You have to think that veteran jockey Gary Stevens will put Candy Boy in position to see if he is good enough. Both have bad posts on the outside, but can get there.

California Chrome loses if Espinosa has to use him more than he wants to battle for position on the first turn or gets caught up trying to keep up with the speed in front of him. If he is a super horse, it won’t matter and a 19-horse field is irrelevant. If he is just a good one, he can be beat by a horse that’s finishing well. I might have chosen Hoppertunity if he was still there, but I’m going to take a chance at Dance With Fate. Fate beat Chrome in the Del Mar Futurity last September and seems to run his best on synthetics. But I believe Animal Kingdom came in with that type knock against him and rolled a couple years back.

It all comes back to 2008. I went with Adriano after being impressed by his strong finish on the Poly Track at Turfway in the Lane’s End and he never lifted a hoof, running 18^th in the Derby. Maybe I will be rewarded by going against the grain with Fate this time after he finished strong on the All Weather Track to win the Blue Grass Stakes a few weeks ago. What’s the fun in picking a 2-1 shot anyway?

12-5-20-18-19

LADIES DAY

The Kentucky Oaks has a similar scenario with a big favorite in Untapable, who breaks from the outside gate (13) Friday. In my opinion, there are more viable competitors to beat this horse though. I think Rosiland, My Miss Sophia and Fashion Plate have a chance, but will go with a longer shot in Ria Antonia. The horse has a serious turn of foot and, with the right trip, she can run them all down in the stretch.

2-4-13

- Mark Pukalo

Best of 2013 Movies: Going Old School

It was an average year for movies, but there were many tremendous performances.

Maybe it wasn’t as good as 2010, but it was better than 2011. The top six on my list probably aren’t as good as that group in 2012, but the depth is similar. What was unique about 2013 was there was a group of movies that were powerful and well worth seeing, but not memorable enough to make my top five like “12 Years a Slave,” which will probably win Best Picture.

I wish I could have seen all of them, but here are my opinions on the year in movies for 2013.

Still hope to see: August Osage County, Saving Mr. Banks, Labor Day, The Book Thief, Inside Llewyn Davis, Out of the Furnace, The Fifth Estate, Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom. … Comments: I don’t believe Lone Survivor counts as a 2013 movie and the only one I really wish I had seen already was the Coen Brothers’ Llewyn Davis.

The worst of 2013: The Place Beyond the Pines, Man of Steel, Jobs, World War Z, Anchorman II, The Hangover III, Good Day to Diehard, Gatsby.

Barely missed the worst list (each had something that saved it): The Conjuring, Don Jon, Olympus Has Fallen, Prisoners, Spring Breakers, Side Effects, Elysium, Machete Kills, Blue Jasmine, Enough Said. … Comments: Spring Breakers had an interesting story, but the movie was so incredibly poorly made. When Jessica Alba dies early in Machete Kills you know you’re in trouble. The gorgeous Rooney Mara almost saves Side Effects’ predictable story.

Honorable mention: Safe Haven, Star Trek into Darkness, The Internship, Oblivion, Iron Man 3, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Purge. … Comments: The Purge is not a movie I usually like, but it was so chilling and crazy that I almost thought it was good. Wolf was so much over the top that it became a farce to me, but there were some entertaining moments.

20. The Butler – Forrest Whitaker and Cuba Gooding were outstanding, but as others have said -- this was more like a good TV movie.

19. White House Down – Sure, it was Diehard at the White House, but it was way better than the other similar movie – Olympus Has Fallen – and the plot was somewhat believable.

18. Fruitvale Station – The true story of Oscar Grant III was well done and makes you very sad and angry. I needed more depth to the story to place it higher on the list.

17. Captain Phillips – The movie was strong and interesting until Tom Hanks got off the ship. After that, it just really dragged and the ending was nothing special.

16. All is Lost – Robert Redford performs an amazing one-man show on a sailboat, with no dialogue. Still would have liked a little background. Has a memorable ending.

15. Closed Circuit – Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall are terrific actors who carried a movie that was a little less intense and different than it appeared to be in trailers.

14. Philomena – Dame Judi Dench goes on a journey to find her long-lost son in a movie that has an interesting ending, but is a little slow to get going.

13. 42 – Really thought this early-2013 movie about Jackie Robinson was well done and that Harrison Ford might warrant some award recognition, but maybe I over-rated it a bit on first viewing.

12. Catching Fire – Jennifer Lawrence is tremendous again in the second of the Hunger Games trilogy, which made me really excited to watch the next. Could have easily been a few spots higher.

11. 12 Years a Slave – An amazing achievement by director Steve McQueen, which could win him an Oscar. That would be fine with me. The film just didn’t make me say “wow” when I walked out. But the Duck Dynasty guy should be locked in a room to watch it over and over and over and over.

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10. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – The film doesn’t have anywhere near the intrigue and power that many I ranked between 11-20 have, but I just enjoyed Ben Stiller’s journey and especially those big beers in Greenland.

 9. Short Term 12 – Brie Larson and John Gallagher Jr. (The Newsroom) are young supervisors of a residential treatment center for youths who deal with problems in both their own lives and those of the kids. Could have been longer and answered more questions, but a unique story with a standout performance by Larson.

 8. Dallas Buyers Club – Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto provided virtuoso performances in a movie about the beginnings of the Aids epidemic.

 7. Gravity – Was unsure how Sandra Bullock would be in this role about survival on a space station after a disaster, but she nailed it as usual. I don’t care whether some of those things could have happened. It was a good watch.

 6. Rush – Ron Howard’s film about the Formula One racing rivalry between playboy James Hunt and intense Niki Lauda is incredibly compelling and entertaining.

 5. The Way, Way Back – I might be the only person that has this on their top 10 list for 2013, but I just loved this fun coming-of-age story near Cape Cod, where I vacationed many summers. Sam Rockwell should have been nominated for best supporting actor.

 4. Her – Some might call it creepy or weird, but this movie is about relationships, how we interact with each other and the exaggeration of what could happen in the future. I found it unique and fascinating. And, yes, I would date Scarlett Johansson’s voice.

 3. American Hustle – David O. Russell directed my pick for the best movie of 2012 and he puts together another pulsating movie, with tremendous acting, about political corruption and scam artists. Lawrence and Amy Adams are memorable.

 2. The Spectacular Now – Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley play absolutely rich characters in a unique story about a young man who goes on a journey of self-awareness after he spends most of high school living for the Now.

 1 – Nebraska – Alexander Payne, who directed my favorite film of 2011, weaves an amazing story about an aging veteran who is searching for something to live for in the final years of his life. His journey makes you laugh, think and cry a bit. That’s why it was the best movie of 2013 in my opinion.

                                                                   

Previous picks for Best of the Year

2012 – Silver Linings Playbook

2011 – The Descendants

2010 – The Social Network

2009 – Inglourious Basterds

2008 – Frost/Nixon (The Wrestler a close second)

2007 – Once

Best of Decade 2000-2009 – Almost Famous

OSCAR PICKS

Best picture – Well, you know my pick. But I think “12 years a Slave” will win.

Best actor – Bruce Dern (Nebraska). I think there’s a small chance he wins, but if not McConaughey is the pick. He was absolutely stunning in Buyers Club. Leonardo DiCaprio was great, but I just didn’t like the movie. Redford should have been nominated.

Best actress – I love Meryl Streep. But does she have to be nominated every year?!!! I’m rooting for Adams, but I think Cate Blanchett’s turn in a very average Woody Allen movie “Blue Jasmine” was pretty impressive.

Best supporting actor – Leto should win, but Barkhad Abdi was outstanding in “Captain Phillips.” Wish the Academy would be more open in its nominating process to give people like Rockwell (The Way, Way Back) and James Franco (Spring Breakers) a chance.

Best supporting actress – Jennifer Lawrence dominates the screen in “American Hustle” every time she is there and June Squibb is an absolute riot in “Nebraska.” Hope one of them win. Would like to see Rebecca Hall nominated one of these years. She was great in “The Town” and this year’s “Closed Circuit.”

Adapted Screen play – John Ridley for “12 Years a Slave.”

Original Screen play – Hopefully either Spike Jonze for “Her” or Bob Nelson for “Nebraska.”