By Mark Pukalo
Several issues can severely affect teams that win championships. They could get even worse when an organization celebrates two straight titles.
Salary caps may force management to break up the core, complacency can set in, they could get old all at once and the fatigue of two long postseasons can wear the players out.
The two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning don’t appear to have any of those problems as the first full NHL season since 2018-19 begins on Tuesday night against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins.
Sure, they lost their entire third line from the last two seasons and must retool the bottom six a bit, but the Bolts have not lost any of their All Stars to free agency. There certainly isn’t a motivation issue with this group, which would love to notch a place in history with three straight Cups. The Lightning are still a young team overall, with veteran newcomers Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare and Corey Perry the only regular skaters older than 33. This team never seems to wear out physically, either. They have made a habit of rebounding from losses the last two playoff runs.
Mental fatigue? We’ll see, but not sure that will keep the Lightning from making another run either.
There is no reason the Bolts can’t win a third straight Cup, unless injuries to their top players slow them down. It certainly won’t be easy, with several teams knocking at the door.
“We just can't rest on what has happened the past two years,” captain Steven Stamkos told NHL.com. “The start is critical to any season and I think maybe even a little more so for our group now. Let's get off to a really good start. Especially when you have a team that has been together for as long as we have, that's when you take advantage is at the beginning of the year when some teams are just feeling out their rosters, guys are getting a chance, everyone is not dialed in on their special teams.”
The trio of Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov has arguably become the best line in the league. That group is a given to put up big points. Like always, the Lightning will need complimentary scoring - primarily at even strength - from the other three lines.
How coach Jon Cooper will set up the bottom three forward trios is still unknown, but it would be a big plus if Stamkos can have an injury-free season, Alex Killorn can continue his increased production from the last two campaigns and Anthony Cirelli can have a breakout offensive season. Mathieu Joseph and Ross Colton must take that next step while Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh assimilate smoothly into the NHL. (I just love Katchouk's potential) Early returns on Perry’s production potential look good after a dazzling preseason and the edgy winger will be more motivated than anyone to win his second Cup (He won with Anaheim in 2007) after losing to the Bolts the last two years.
The defense is set, led by Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. It would be a plus if first-round pick Cal Foote stepped up and put pressure or gave strong support to Jan Rutta and Zach Bogosian on the right side of the defense.
The loss of talented forward Alex Barre-Boulet on waivers to Seattle on Monday hurts the depth, but the Lightning think highly of centers Gage Goncalves and Simon Ryfors while others such as Gabriel Fortier and Otto Somppi showed in the preseason they could also help up front.
As Stamkos has said, the Lightning will always have a chance with the world’s best goalie in net in Andrei Vasilevskiy. How he did not win three straight Vezinas escapes me. But, the Big Cat has two Cups. I think he’ll take those instead. Veteran Brian Elliott (256 career wins) gets a chance as the backup.
Tampa Bay is the best team in the Eastern Conference, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will make another final. The New York Islanders and Florida Panthers look good on paper and gave the Lightning their toughest tests in the 2021 playoffs. The Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals are never easy to knock out and the Pittsburgh Penguins might be a threat again if they can survive without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the early months. The Philadelphia Flyers have upgraded their defense immensely and Carter Hart can't be that bad again, can he? The Carolina Hurricanes? There’s certainly a lot of talent there. The New York Rangers also have potential to make several steps forward.
But they will all have to catch the Lightning.
In my opinion, the only team that can beat Tampa Bay in the East right now is the Islanders. Lou Lamoriello did a masterful job in the offseason and if they can add another offensive player (Vladimir Tarasenko?) at the deadline or talented Oliver Wahlstrom emerges as a top-six scoring forward and/or Zach Parise finds the Fountain of Youth, this may be the team that ends the Bolts’ run.
Picks in the East:
Atlantic - 1. Tampa Bay; 2. Florida; 3. Boston; 4. Toronto; 5. Montreal; 6. Ottawa; 7. Detroit; 8. Buffalo
Metropolitan - 1. NY Islanders; 2. Philadelphia; 3. Carolina; 4. Washington; 5. NY Rangers; 6. Pittsburgh; 7. Columbus; 8. New Jersey
Wild Cards - Washington, NY Rangers
There’s no doubt the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights are the teams to beat in the West. But who will be the squads that give them the most trouble? That’s impossible to predict because all the contenders look similar. But here are my guesses at the division finishes.
Picks in the West
Central: 1. Colorado; 2. Minnesota; 3. Chicago; 4. Winnipeg; 5. St. Louis; 6. Dallas; 7. Nashville; 8. Arizona (Razor thin between 2nd and 7th)
Pacific: 1. Vegas; 2. Edmonton; 3. Los Angeles; 4. Vancouver; 5. Calgary; 6. San Jose; 7. Anaheim; 8. Seattle
Wild Cards - Winnipeg, Vancouver
