By Mark Pukalo
What happened?
It’s been two weeks now and there’s no definitive reasons why the Tampa Bay Lightning did not look like the same team in the Eastern Conference finals, after breezing through the first two series.
Maybe the simple answer is that it was the Washington Capitals’ time. The Caps had finally knocked off their nemesis Pittsburgh, and they rode the momentum to the finals. Washington did seem to find the 200-foot game they have been lacking in the playoffs before. It finally clicked in for them and Evgeny Kuznetsov has been a different postseason player.
You have to be careful what you wish for sometimes in the playoffs. Most, including this reporter, did not want to face the Penguins. But maybe they would have been a better matchup in the end for Tampa Bay.
All that might have been moot if the Lightning had played better, though. To be honest, there was never a comfortable feeling in the series for me - even after they took a three games to two lead. Game 2 was a colossal disappointment, but the Bolts were outshot throughout the series and could not sustain their stretches of strong play. The first period of Game 5 was the only time you really thought the Lightning would come out on top. But they barely held on in that game.
Washington physically punished the Lightning throughout, sometimes legally and other times illegally (I’m looking at you Brooks Orpik). The Capitals seemed to wear down the Brayden Point line with constant hits during and after the play. Point and Palat battled, but were somewhat diminished, and Tyler Johnson was not a factor. That left a bigger role for the Chris Kunitz-Cedric Paquette-Ryan Callahan line and they ultimately could not limit Alex Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. Heck, they shouldn’t be able to.
Hindsight is much easier of course, but what Jon Cooper could have done is put together a more physical checking line around Point to take on the Ovechkin trio. Perhaps J.T. Miller or Callahan could have been put in Johnson’s spot. Give the Paquette line credit, they had some good moments. But you knew it would not last. Who turned over the puck on Washington’s first goal in Game 7? Yep, the fourth line.
With all that happening on the other side of the ice, the Lightning’s top players had to take over 5-on-5 in the offensive end and they could not. Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov got their points on the power play, but had just two at even strength. Two! Without enough possession time, Victor Hedman could not quite get as involved as he usually does either.
The Bolts inexplicably failed to score in the final eight periods of the series. That is hard the believe. It almost seemed like destiny. It sure looked like that when Yanni Gourde could not shovel a rebound into an open net to tie it in the second period of Game 7. Wonder how the game would have changed if he had scored.
The final analysis is this. The Lightning were good enough to win a Stanley Cup. They just didn’t play good enough when tested by a team that had found their elusive top playoff form.
Here’s the thing Bolts fans. If Steve Yzerman had not waved his magic wand, bringing in Ryan McDonagh and Miller for Vlad Namestnikov just before the trade deadline, the Lightning might not have made it out of the first round.
So, where do we go from here?
Yzerman will be doing a lot probing with fellow general managers over the next month. But there won’t be and shouldn’t be a major overhaul unless there are issues that arise.
The one thing that could change everything is Kucherov’s situation. How does the Russian feel about money? If he is intent on getting $10-11 million per on a long-term deal after his contract is up next year, then that may be a problem.
But, let’s throw that aside for now.
What tweaks can you make to a roster that has plenty of talent and depth?
The one weakness that sometimes rears its head is size up front. The Lightning are crafty, tough and skilled enough to get by 90 percent of the time, but the Capitals just ran them over in Game 6 and outmuscled them at times in the series.
Everybody wants to get rid of Alex Killorn, but he is one of the only physical forces in the top nine. Heck, if someone offers you a great deal to take Killer’s contract, fine. Use the money saved to sign Miller and hope that Adam Erne takes another step or two forward. Personally, I’d rather have Killorn and Miller on the roster. Miller had his ups and downs, especially in the final two rounds of the playoffs, but if he’s reasonable ($4.5 for four or five years?) the Bolts should sign the RFA.
The person to replace is Johnson. I said this a season ago and most everyone has come around to agree with me now. It won’t be easy, though. You may have to be creative before his no-trade deal clicks in. Here’s the sell job for Yzerman: If he doesn’t work out for you, you can dump him off on expansion Seattle in a few years - not far from his home in Spokane. Johnson has done a lot for this franchise. I’m not looking past that. He is just not a $5 million player long term and it’s a position that you can upgrade - if not with offensive numbers, with many other things.
If Kunitz wants to come back for one year on a similar contract, fine. If he goes, that's fine too. I’m not at all sure what to do with Paquette. He woke up late in the regular season and had his moments in the playoffs. But his deficiencies are still there. I would move on and sign Matt Peca to potentially play between Kunitz and Callahan. If you have more beef in your top nine, you can go a little smaller on the fourth - although Cally and Kunitz don’t play small.
The wish list in a potential trade is power winger who can skate and does not make a ton of cash. Mathieu Joseph, Alexander Volkov and Mitchell Stephens may get a look at some point and the aforementioned Erne stands at the crossroads of his tenure in Tampa.
Anthony Cirelli, with a summer of building up more strength, should be even better as well. The Lightning is set for years with Stamkos-Point-Cirelli up the middle. That’s not a big trio, but it is big enough. I asked Scotty Bowman recently if it is essential to have lots of size up the middle in this day and age of the NHL? He told me that it doesn’t hurt. ... but it is not as important as it once was.
There is less to do with the Lightning defense, but Yzerman will have to make a decision on what to offer McDonagh - who has one year left on his deal. He didn’t play great every game in the playoffs, but the former Ranger was one of the best in the Bruins series and solid in the long run. It’s not out of the question that Yzerman looks for a top-four righty to return Dan Girardi back to the third pair. The other option is pushing Mikhail Sergachev beside McDonagh and moving Anton Stralman back with Hedman. Girardi had a much better season than most predicted, but he is still best as a third-pair guy who can slide beside McDonagh and Hedman for a few shifts here and there while getting plenty of penalty kill minutes.
Sergachev was just fine in the playoffs. Even better than expected. There’s no doubt it would have been nice to have Jonathan Drouin instead of Tyler Johnson on the roster. But Sergachev’s talent and the use of Namestnikov to bring in Miller and McDonagh definitely eases the pain of that move for me.
Perhaps with assistant coach Rick Bowness gone, it may give Slater Koekkoek a chance to - at least - break into the top seven. Bowness never seemed to like Koekkoek and always preferred giving Andrej Sustr more time. Sustr has to be gone, right? The kid is not a bad defenseman and he will likely get some decent offers on the free-agent market. But he is not a top six guy for this team.
Bowness has, without a doubt, been a positive for the organization since he came here. Good coach, good man. It just seemed that his defensive system - or his plan in concert with Cooper - was too passive at times. When the Bolts played aggressive against the Bruins, they were at their best. But then they seemed to back up too much against the Capitals. The Lightning needed a new voice. We’ll see if there is a noticeable change with whoever Yzerman brings in.
One potential option could be 19-year-old Cal Foote. He is a righty and may get a good long look to see if he is ready to be an immediate answer. Dominik Masin and Eric Cernak also had tremendous seasons in the AHL. You may see them replace Girardi and Braydon Coburn - assuming he’s still around - after next season as a unit for the third pair.
There are plenty of decisions to make, but the Lightning still have enough tools to be in the same spot again in 2018-19. With a few deft moves from Yzerman and some development of their young players, the Bolts will be the favorite for the Cup next season.
They certainly have a goalie that can get them there. Anybody have any questions about Andrei Vasilevskiy anymore?
