The NHL Marathon Returns

Wealthy, greedy people do not have the ability to lock the doors and take the NHL away from us this season.

Hockey fans can enjoy an 82-game campaign -- with an intermission at the Olympics -- which will crown the true champion of a nine-month test. The team that navigates the ups and downs, makes the smartest personnel moves and peaks at the right time gets to drink from the Stanley Cup.

One thing that was positive about the 2012-13 season was the mostly wide-open postseason. Perhaps it was due to a 48-game slate before it, but the playoffs were a joy to watch. No matter whether you liked the teams or not, the Chicago-Boston final was well played and far more entertaining than the snooze fest of 2011-12 between Los Angeles and New Jersey.

My biggest hope for this season is that the players finally begin to grasp the idea that shots to the head and blind-sided hits can be avoided without taking away the physical nature of the game that we all love. The reason for a hit, a check, is to dislodge the puck and create space -- not injure players. Unfortunately, the Zac Rinaldos will still be around to cause unnecessary havoc. It would just be nice to see Brendan Shanahan’s mug much less this season.

Looking at my preseason picks last year, I did select Pittsburgh and Chicago to finish first in each conference. I also had New Jersey out of the playoffs. Unfortunately, I placed the Islanders and Maple Leafs 15^th and 14^th in the East -- respectively. Oops. With a clean slate, here’s a go at 2013-14.

METROPOLITAN

It’s difficult to pick against Pittsburgh in the regular season with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin healthy. The concern is whether Marc-Andre Fleury can find his game, because there is no viable backup on the roster right now. The rest of the division is impossible to predict with many variables.

The New York Rangers might play looser with John Tortorella gone, although they need Brad Richards and Rick Nash to have much better seasons and goalie Henrik Lundqvist to sign an extension. A healthy Brooks Laich and the good version of Mikhail Grabovski could help support Alex Ovechkin a little better in Washington, but the defense is still a bit thin after John Carlson, injury-prone Mike Green and Karl Alzner. The New York Islanders might take one step back after moving two steps forward. John Tavares leaped into the NHL’s elite last year and the Islanders should score. I’m not convinced they have the depth of talent on the other end of the ice to be substantially better than last year yet. Philadelphia should be able to score goals with the addition of Vincent Lecavalier and a healthy Scott Hartnell. If the defense and goaltending gets better, the Flyers could be a factor. That is a big IF. Columbus may be a stronger team this season and finish farther from a playoff spot in the tougher Eastern Conference. I can’t imagine Sergei Bobrovsky matching last season, so the Blue Jackets will have to be better offensively. Martin Brodeur’s last go-round will likely end similar to Mariano Rivera’s, but you can never count out New Jersey -- especially if some of their young players progress like defenseman Adam Larsson. Not quite sure where Carolina is going with its plan. This season, the Hurricanes will most likely spin into last place while they give up the most goals in the league.

Playoff teams – 1. Pittsburgh; 2. New York Rangers; 3. Washington; 4. New York Islanders

ATLANTIC

It hurts me to say that the Boston Bruins are the best team in the East on paper. Jarome Iginla replaces Nathan Horton and Loui Eriksson moves in for Tyler Seguin, which is probably a double upgrade. The one way the Bruins could fall is health, especially if goalie Tuukka Rask gets injured.

It will be tougher in the Eastern Conference on the ice for Detroit, but less travel will help. The key might be the development of young defensemen Brendan Smith, Jakub Kindl and Danny DeKeyser. The return of Jason Spezza from injury and the addition of Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur helps the Ottawa offense big time and the Senators were already good on the defensive side of the ice. Toronto was almost good enough to beat Boston in the playoffs last season and looks to make another step forward if it can keep the puck out of the net. Goalies James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier might not be the concern. It’s the Leafs’ inconsistent defense corps. Montreal will maintain its spot in the playoffs if it gets a better year from goalie Carey Price. However, if one team is going to fall off in this division it is likely to be the smallish Habs. If Tampa Bay can find a more consistent offensive-defensive mindset quickly, it can compete with the Islanders, Leafs and Canadiens for the final playoff spot. Steven Stamkos and Marty St. Louis will produce points and Victor Hedman is ready to be an all star on defense. Not sure Tim Thomas was the right way to go for Florida, but he might steal a win or two along the way to keep the Panthers competitive. The Panthers just need to stick with coach Kevin Dineen and this team will be fine down the road. Not really sure what the plan is in Buffalo either. The roster has plenty of holes and I don’t think anyone is going to give the Sabres what they want for Ryan Miller.

Playoff teams – 1. Boston; 2. Detroit; 3. Ottawa; 4. Toronto

Eastern Conference – Boston over Pittsburgh…. Value play – Ottawa. I think Daniel Alfredsson picked the wrong team.

CENTRAL

The Chicago Blackhawks kept all the key parts together for another run. The only question is how much the inevitable hangover will affect them. The only concern is if Corey Crawford reverts to his 2011-12 form and there are injuries up front, where they are not as deep.

Coach Ken Hitchcock must find the answers with talented, yet enigmatic St. Louis. The defense is solid, but their young forwards like Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Magnus Paajarvi must make the next step. Not really thrilled with the other contending teams, so maybe Nashville will bounce back with the addition of youngsters Seth Jones and Filip Forsberg and veterans Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg, Matt Hendricks and Eric Nystrom. The Minnesota Wild barely made the playoffs last season and not sure they got much better in the offseason unless youngsters Charlie Coyle and Matt Dumba emerge. Ryan Suter definitely proved last season he is almost worth the money he was given. Someday, Winnipeg will be a playoff team again and may this season if it can stay healthy. The Jets will need impact from newcomers Devin Setoguchi and Michael Frolik up front and improved defense in front of capable goalie Ondrej Pavelec. Dallas may have as good a chance to finish third in this division as the previous three, especially if center Tyler Seguin reaches his potential. It doesn’t seem like Colorado has addressed their problems on defense and in goal (Ryan Miller?), but Nathan MacKinnon will be fun to watch and Steve Downie is back.

Playoff teams – 1. Chicago; 2. St. Louis; 3. Nashville

PACIFIC

Even thought the Los Angeles Kings are sometimes boring to watch, they have a lot of talent and one of the league’s best goalies in Jonathan Quick. A healthy Anze Kopitar certainly helps as well.

Teemu Selanne’s final ride should be a smooth one with Anaheim, which has improved its depth up front even after the loss of Bobby Ryan. The Ducks will need to enhance their defense corps down the road though. It’s probably the last rodeo for San Jose before the team gets broken up, so you expect either its best or an implosion. There’s too much talent for the Sharks to fall out of the playoffs in the weaker West with a solid top four up front in Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski and Patrick Marleau. Tortorella will try to get Vancouver over the hump. Roberto Luongo will be fine with the NHL’s soap opera team, but not sure the Canucks can get past the first round with a GM who has no clue what he is doing most of the time. Mike Smith has a nice new contract in Phoenix and the Coyotes’ defense is too good not to get them back in the playoffs. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle rank near the top among the best one-two punches on defense in the NHL. Edmonton is another team that puzzles me. Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are terrific, but not sure where they are going overall (Steve McIntyre?). It will be fun to watch Karri Ramo play goal again in Calgary, but the Flames will likely be in the running for the first pick in the 2014 draft.

Playoff teams – 1. Los Angeles; 2. Anaheim; 3. San Jose; 4. Vancouver; 5. Phoenix.

Western Conference – Chicago over Anaheim…….Value play – San Jose

Finals – Chicago over Boston. This time, the Hawks score three goals in the final two minutes in Boston to create more agony for Bruins fans. That thought warms the heart.

A Different View on Vinny and the Draft

It was not a shock. When the Lightning announced that a compliance buyout would be used on captain Vincent Lecavalier Thursday, it just saddened me.

Yes, the contract was a bad one signed by a pair of horrible former owners. It would be great if the NHL allowed players to renegotiate once during a long-term contract and find a way to stay in a place they want to finish their career. It makes too much sense for the NHL, I guess.

This is not meant to bash anyone. I don’t claim to be an expert. It’s just an opinion and, honestly, it is not an emotional one. The things I disagree the most with that I've heard the last few days are the over-used phrases “It had to be done” and “It’s business.”

I don’t think it had to be done and, to me, when you talk about "business" that would lead me to believe that the Lightning are in trouble financially. That’s not the case. If the owner can commit to paying someone $32.7 million over 14 years for a player to go away, the business is fine.

There were other ways to create space for the next few seasons and keep an impact forward that other teams are salivating over to fill their hole at No. 1 or 2 center. He may get up to $5 million per after the bidding war.

One big reason they could keep Lecavalier’s $7.7 million hit (no, it’s not $10 million) is simply that the salary cap is not going to stay at $64 million forever. In fact, many estimate that it will be over $70 million as early as 2015-16, maybe even next season.

The Lightning could also clear $8.35 million of cap space the next two seasons if they bought out forward Ryan Malone and defenseman Eric Brewer. That would cost ownership about $24 million less than the Lecavalier buyout. Marty St. Louis’ deal ends after the 2014-15 season. Perhaps he retires or signs a cap-friendly, one-year deal for one more shot at a Cup at age 40. Vinny Prospal’s buyout money ($1.116 mil) is also off the books after two more years.

Mattias Ohlund’s contract ends after the 2015-16 season and Steven Stamkos will be ready for his 8-year, $80 million deal.

No doubt, the Lightning are hoping they can strike gold with some of the young players they have developed and will need money to sign them as time goes on. But, again, the cap is going to go up and any good GM has to make choices. Like other teams, some will move on and some won’t. The goal is to find guys like Dominic Moore, Sean Bergenheim, Tom Pyatt and Nate Thompson who outperform their contracts. That creates space.

There are ways to keep Lecavalier around for the final five, six or seven years. You hope he can be productive for seven more seasons, but if he retires after five you can bite the bullet for a few years. Don’t forget, you’re not paying him those seasons he is retired. You just have to deal with the penalty cap number and I don't think you should worry about something a half decade away. The cap is likely to be around $80 million by then and there can’t be a lockout.

Ultimately, the compliance buyout doesn’t earn them $7.7 million of space. They have to replace his skill and playmaking ability. He was the team’s best player in the first 15 games or so last season until a Sami Salo slap shot hit him in the foot and I’m not the only person to say that. Young players like Alex Killorn and Richard Panik seemed to work well with him. They may also ultimately have to pay another top-four defenseman good money.

It’s just my opinion. But I think it was a better option to just leave a Tampa icon in the lineup among the group of players you build around led by Stamkos, Victor Hedman and the third pick in the 2013 draft.

We’ll see what happens going forward. But I will miss Vinny, who is one of the classiest athletes I have ever been around in my 28 years of covering sports.

Mark’s Mock

I don’t remember a big buzz leading up to the 2003 NHL Draft. Ten years later, it’s recognized as the best group of players to ever enter the league.

This year’s crop of teenagers has been compared to that class, which produced such dynamite second-round picks as Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron and Jimmy Howard. A decade from now we will see how deep this draft really is, but there’s no doubt the evaluation will start with five so called “can’t-miss” players at the top.

Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, Jonathan Drouin, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin are recognized by most experts as elite prospects. Put them in any order. It’s not out of the question one slips to sixth, seventh or eighth because of needs, but all of them could be in the NHL next season.

Once you get past the first seven or eight players, anything can happen. Projections are all over the place. Goalie Zachary Fucale is the big wildcard. But after soaking up all the knowledge I can without interviewing players or watching tons of tape, here’s another mock draft. Why not? It’s fun. I expect there to be several trades, but here’s a guess if it stays the same:

Colorado – Seth Jones D Portland. My take is the Avalanche want to see if Florida will give them something to be able to take MacKinnon at No.1. I could totally be wrong. But you notice Joe Sakic is saying “if the draft were today” we will take a forward. A defenseman like Jones doesn’t come along very often though and the Avs could use one badly.

Florida – Nathan MacKinnon C Halifax. The Panthers let out a sigh of relief and grab MacKinnon to form a solid 1-2 punch at centre with Jonathan Huberdeau. If MacKinnon is gone, they just take Jones and smile.

Tampa Bay – Jonathan Drouin LW, Halifax. Nichushkin would be a good pick. So would Barkov for that matter. It’s just hard to pass on a player with Drouin’s skill and he just seems to be scratching the surface. The Lightning can add more size through trades.

Nashville – Aleksander Barkov C, Finland. The Predators need offense and they have to be better down the middle. Enter Barkov, who was one of the best players in the Finnish Elite League at 17.

Carolina – Valeri Nichushkin LW, Russia. The Hurricanes will find a spot in the top six for the powerful forward in 2013-14 and hope he can produce right away playing with a Staal brother.

Calgary – Sean Monahan C, Ottawa. The Flames start a busy first round by choosing a solid pivot who could be productive as a No. 1 or 2 down the road.

Edmonton – Darnell Nurse D, Sault St. Marie. The Oilers need to keep building up their defense and this physical force fits the bill perfectly.

Buffalo -- Elias Lindholm C, Sweden. The Sabres play it safe with a solid, two-way center who looks to be the type of player you win with.

New Jersey – Hunter Shinkaruk C/LW, Medicine Hat. My guess is the Devils will attempt to move down five spots or less and add an extra pick then choose Fucale as their goalie of the future. Maybe they just take him here. If not, they take a good offensive player.

Dallas – Bo Horvat C, London. The Stars could go any number of ways, which may cause them to move down a bit. But they go with the better all-around player after considering offensive forwards Max Domi and Anthony Mantha.

Philadelphia – Nikita Zadorov D, London. Could go with several different types of defensemen here, or maybe even Fucale, but perhaps the Russian monster fits.

Phoenix – Anthony Mantha LW, Val d’Or. The Coyotes need offense bad and here’s a 50-goal scorer from the Quebec League that may have more upside than Domi.

Winnipeg -- Max Domi C London. Tie’s son is a pretty darn good offensive player who can fit into the top nine for the Jets at some point.

Columbus -- Rasmus Ristolainen D, Finland. You can never have enough steady defenseman and the Blue Jackets have two more picks in the first round to grab some forwards.

NY Islanders – Valentin Zykov RW, Baie-Comeau. Hard-working Russian with good size who can score adds to the depth of the forward corps.

Buffalo – Ryan Pulock D, Brandon. The Sabres go with a forward their first selection, so they add an offensive defenseman with good size.

Ottawa – Alexander Wennberg C, Sweden. The Senators are looking for offense and this guy has good speed and creativity. Ottawa has had good luck with Swedes as well.

Detroit -- Curtis Lazar C, Edmonton. He fits the Red Wings mold with his character and an all-around game. He could go as early as nine or 10.

Columbus – Kerby Rychel  LW, Windsor. The Blue Jackets think about Fucale and another defenseman, but turn to a power forward who can score and has NHL pedigree.

San Jose – Samuel Morin D, Rimouski. Sharks grab a player who could go much higher if a particular team loves his upside. He is 6-7 and has good mobility.

Toronto – Ryan Hartman RW, Plymouth. An agitating-type player with a consistent game. He played well in helping the United States win the World Junior Championship.

Calgary – Zachary Fucale G, Halifax. If the Devils, Flyers, Sabres and the Islanders don’t grab the Memorial Cup winning netminder, GM Jay Feaster looks to the heavens and gets to the podium quick to take this winner.

Washington – Frederick Gauthier C Rimouski. The Capitals could use a player like Gauthier, who has good size and the ability to fill a third-line center role.

Vancouver – Josh Morrissey D, Prince Albert. The Canucks need a lot of things, but a puck-moving defenseman who can play on the power play in the future is one of them.

Montreal – Adam Erne LW, Quebec. The Canadiens can use more speed and size and this Connecticut-born player may provide it in a few years.

Anaheim – Madison Bowey D, Kelowna. There are several different types of defensemen on the board and the Ducks go for perhaps the best athlete of the bunch.

Columbus – Andre Burakowsky LW, Sweden. The Blue Jackets are in the position to take a chance here with their third pick and grab a potential top-six forward who did not play much this season for various reasons.

Calgary – Shea Theodore D, Seattle. The Flames take an offensive defenseman who needs to get better in his own end to complete a productive first round.

Dallas – Ian McCoshen D Waterloo. A shutdown, workhorse defenseman who can provide more room for the Stars’ skilled players.

Chicago – Jacob De La Rose C Sweden. The Stanley Cup champs could take more of a project here, but a safe, solid pick like this works as well.

Building the Bridge to a Better - 2012 Movies

It’s been a struggle to put a blog together for the last few months.

I would not call it writer’s block. Not sure what to blame. There have just been several thoughts bouncing around in my head about issues and when I sat down to form an opinion piece it was difficult to make it fresh, clear and simple.

So I’m going to make it easier on myself and build a bridge to better blogs next week about the NHL Draft and the rest of the summer. I’m emptying the notebook. Here’s a bunch of thoughts on the Lightning, other sports and the best 2012 movies:

·      I was very disappointed in the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season. In my opinion, the roster was good enough to make them at least an eighth seed in the playoffs. Ultimately, the Bolts have still yet to find a way to control their goals-against average. Goaltending is just one of many issues. It’s more about the way they played. That gambling mentality with the puck, the inability to clear the zone simply, poor decision-making in key areas on the ice, the lack of enough puck possession caused by turnovers and losing too many board battles all contributed to their downfall. Some key players just did not get it done, or were inconsistent, and perhaps that forced coach Guy Boucher to over react at times and make it worse.

·       I believe Boucher will be a really good NHL hockey coach down the road. Honestly, I think he might have been a good choice for Colorado. He did some tremendous things here and he should learn from the experience. I’m certainly not in the locker room and the coaches’ room, so nobody knows what went on. My only concern was what I saw in the defensive zone coverage at times (no, not talking about the overblown 1-3-1!). Opponents were left wide open way too often. Was it more his plan or players making mistakes and losing battles? Who knows for sure? There were times that perhaps Boucher seemed to make the game a little too complicated. But again, it would not surprise me in the least to see him grab the Stanley Cup and hoist it over his head some day.

*

·       New coach Jon Cooper’s challenge will be to develop an aggressive style of play that uses the team’s abundance of creativity and skill while limiting the – often unforced – turnovers that plagued the team. The teams that I watched in the playoffs did not resemble the Lightning very much. Some of them weren’t very good offensively, but they went North-South and didn’t give up the puck at their own blue line or in the neutral zone easily.

·       This might be a more important offseason for Bolts GM Steve Yzerman than his first with the team. The organizational depth is so much better now and he has some solid young assets he could trade to fill key needs. Yzerman must retool or tweak the defense and the forward corps and stay under the cap. A top-four defenseman (is Keith Yandle available?) and a strong-skating power forward for the top nine would help. He will have to make some decisions on Ryan Malone, Eric Brewer and Benoit Pouliot. To me, I don’t understand the talk about buying out Vincent Lecavalier. It doesn’t make sense financially or on the ice. He was one of the team’s best players last season when he didn’t have the foot injury.

·       This will be one of the most interesting drafts in recent memory on June 30 in Newark, N.J. Only the NSA knows what the boards of the teams with the top five picks say outside their rooms. Colorado threw a curveball the other day by saying it would not pick defenseman Seth Jones. I think the Avs might be playing games, but Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin are incredible players. For the last month, you figured the Lightning would be choosing between Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin and Sasha Barkov at No. 3. Who knows now? Here’s the thing for the Bolts. Nichushkin’s size, speed and power might be exactly what the Lightning needs, but Drouin is an amazing talent who is hard to pass on. Not an easy choice. If Jones is there, it would only make it harder.

·       The first NHL draft was 50 years ago on June 5. This will be the 51st. Every draft on a year ending in a three has been memorable. Garry Monahan was the first pick in 1963 by Montreal in the four-round draft. Denis Potvin went first in 1973 and several future players and executives/coaches were chosen including John Davidson, Bob Gainey, Dave Lewis, Cap Raeder and Colin Campbell along with Tom Pyatt’s father Nelson. Brian Lawton went No. 1 to Minnesota and Sylvain Turgeon to Hartford at No. 2 in 1983. Oops. The Islanders scooped up Pat LaFontaine, the Red Wings chose Yzerman and Tom Barrasso went to Buffalo. John MacLean and Russ Courtnall, two 1,000-game players, went next. Brian Burke traded up to No. 2 to grab Chris Pronger for the Whalers after Ottawa took underwhelming Alexandre Daigle first. The Lightning picked Chris Gratton third and Paul Kariya went fourth to Anaheim. Many think the 2003 draft might have been the best of all time with such standouts as Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber, David Backes, Corey Crawford and Jimmy Howard going after pick No. 44 in the second round after a first round filled with talent. Unfortunately, the Lightning picked Mike Egener at 34 and Matt Smaby at 41 that year. The 2013 draft has five elite prospects and good depth.

·      It still irks me when I see how hard Gary Bettman is working to keep the Phoenix Coyotes in Glendale, Ariz. He will say it’s different because there was an owner in place and the state government went along with it in Connecticut, but the Commish spent little time trying to figure out ways to keep the only major sports franchise the state will ever have around. Hartford was like any other small market. When the team won, the place was hopping. When they weren’t, the 10,000 diehards were there. State officials thought they could get the New England Patriots, so they discarded the Whalers. If Bettman had dragged it out longer and made them realize Bob Kraft would never move the team to Hartford, perhaps the Whalers would still be in Hartford. But he bailed.

·      I wasn’t going to watch much of this NHL final because of my dislike for the Boston Bruins organization, but it’s been difficult to look away. The first four games have been so much more exciting than last year’s snoozer of a series between the Kings and Devils. But please, not another Cup for the Bruins. I’m counting on you “Steady” Joel Quenneville.

·       Hey David Stern. The WWE wants its referees back now that the NBA finals are over.

·       After further review, I am on board with the Darrelle Revis move for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Perhaps Tampa can change the name of Davis Island to Revis Island? The concern I have with the Buccaneers is still depth.

·       Can’t see the Tampa Bay Rays going anywhere again this season. Getting the right return for David Price in a trade is the key to their future, along with a new stadium. You wonder if they wasted a chance to deal B.J. Upton for something last season, but maybe they weren’t offered anything significant.

·       My analysis of 2012 movies is done. Finally. It took me a while to see almost every highly-rated movie I could and watch the top films a second and third time. Overall, it was not a great year for movies. The worst – Prometheus, Rock of Ages, Cosmopolis, Killer Joe, Taken 2, Killing Them Softly, Cloud Atlas, Les Miserables and This is 40; Top Honorable mention – The Master, Ted, Bernie, Trouble with the Curve, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, Act of Valor; Top 25 -- 25. Goon; 24. Not Fade Away; 23. The Avengers; 22. End of Watch; 21. Arbitrage; 20. Seven Psychopaths; 19. The Sessions; 18. Bourne Legacy; 17. Parental Guidance; 16. Perks of Being a Wallflower; 15. Ruby Sparks; 14. Promised Land; 13. Looper; 12. Searching for Sugarman; 11. Premium Rush; Note -- Not everyone would like Perks and Ruby, but something in the uniqueness of both made them work for me and Sugarman should probably be higher. Great documentary…….. 10. Dark Knight Rises – Anne Hathaway should have won an Oscar for this supporting role instead of the other; 9. The Hunger Games – Jennifer Lawrence was superior in this as well; 8. Moonrise Kingdom – goofy, quirky little comedy; 7. Skyfall – Best Bond in a while. Bardem is a great villain; 6. Django Unchained -- Incredibly rich scenes and characters, but editing was needed to make it better; 5. Flight – liked it more the third and fourth times I watched it. Great performance by Denzel Washington; 4. Lincoln – The changes in some of the history for no reason annoyed me, but still a powerful film; 3. Zero Dark Thirty – Jessica Chastain was brilliant. Kept switching it between third and second; 2. Argo – Alan Arkin and John Goodman’s performances helped a lot along with the pulsating ending; 1 – Silver Linings Playbook – Liked it the first time, and then realized how truly good it was the second and third viewings. It passed the Jim Valvano test with As in all categories. It made you laugh, it made you think and it made you cry. That’s why it was the best of the year.

-    Mark Pukalo

Get ready for the Invasion

   The 139^th running of Kentucky Derby is filled with top-end horses that all look similar in a lot of ways.

     Some will be just off the early lead, others will be in the middle of the pack and one contender is likely going to start last. Which of those talented horses can work out the best trip, get a little lucky and have the proper energy in the stretch? That is what the bettor has to decide.

     I picked Creative Cause in this space last year and he met the first two criteria. He did not explode in the stretch like three of the horses that went by him and could not catch Bodemeister. CC finished a solid fifth, but showed he didn’t have what it takes to win a big race like the Derby or the Preakness (third).

     When my less comprehensive handicapping (this year) was done this week, I felt that eight horses had a real chance to win the roses.

     The puzzle with this race is what will happen on the front end early on. Falling Sky and Giant Finish are only true (somewhat) cheap speed horses in the race and they cannot really be classified as speedballs, while Oxbow may be forced to show some early speed as well from the No. 2 gate. With that being the case, would two of the favorites – Verrazano and Goldencents – have the guts to take the lead and try to go the route on a more moderate pace than most Derbys? Heck, Bodemeister almost did it last year and he went faster than this group would likely want to run.

     My guess is that those two contenders will attempt to find a spot behind Falling Sky and Giant Finish, trying to save ground and juice for a sprint in the final half mile. We’ll see, but this race could totally change on the backstretch.

     It’s been a while since I picked a Derby winner, although Nehro finished second in 2011. I might have selected Barbaro on top in 2006, but I truly can’t remember my No. 1 choice in that race. You just try to make the most educated guess you can.

     It’s hard to know for sure how much the predicted rain will affect the track at this point, but we’ll take a run at it again.

     First tosses: Black Onyx doesn’t seem to have the ability to run with these and he drew the rail, while D. Wayne Lukas’ Oxbow didn’t show much in the Arkansas Derby. Until they win one of these, I’m going to let the European horses beat me so Lines of Battle is out of my equation. If any horse other than the favorites has a shot to surprise everyone on the front end its Falling Sky, but I can’t see him or Giant Finish sticking around until the end. Frac Daddy is a horse that might win a big race this summer, but he seems a bit raw right now, and Golden Soul just doesn’t look good enough. Throw Fear the Kitten out if he draws in as well. That gets us down to 13. If any of these can pull a real shocker, it would be Frac Daddy because he definitely has ability.

     Difficult second tosses: All five of these could get it done on their best day and can be trifecta and superfecta fillers as well. They just may be a cut below the top thoroughbreds. Todd Pletcher’s Overanalyze did not impress me in his Arkansas Derby win, but who knows? Pletcher has always thought Palace Malice had a big race in him. He’s been right there lately, but hasn’t been able to put it all together. He just looks like a horse that won’t do better than third. Charming Kitten made a nice run in the Bluegrass, but Java’s War sped right by him. Lukas’ Will Take Charge ran a heck of race in the Rebel, but has been off since March 16. I like Vyjack to be in the hunt from the 20 post, but trainer Rudy Rodriguez said his horse doesn’t like carrots. He doesn’t like carrots? How can a horse win the Derby without loving carrots?

      Getting down to the big five: A friend really likes Itsmyluckyday to be in the top two. I’m not so high on him, but upon further review I must move him up just outside the top five because he could improve off his last race. Closers Mylute and Java’s War likely will not get the pace they need to unleash a big run and there are enough good stalkers that will beat them to the punch. Mylute’s jockey Rosie Napravnik is crafty though and may keep the horse a little closer. Java’s War made one fantastic run in the Bluegrass as well. I’ll toss these two, but you can be sure they’ll be in many of my trifectas.

       Two more down: Both morning-line favorite Orb and Goldencents have great chances if the races fall their way. Orb doesn’t get my top pick because he looks strong in the stretch, but not particularly fast. He’s more of a steady plodder. Although his jockey Joel Rosario is red hot, I just think my top three will be better. If Kevin Krigger keeps Goldencents just off the speed, gets the jump on the others and closes like he did in the Santa Anita Derby he can win as well. I’m just going to go against that happening.

      The Tri: That leaves us with Verrazano, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary. If the race falls like I see it, Verrazano will take the lead heading for home and the other two will try to run him down. And, as good as Verrazano is, I think they will both catch him -- or at least one will. I’m going to go with Normandy Invasion to pass Verrazano near the wire with Javier Castellano aboard. He was making up ground on Verrazano to finish second in the Wood Memorial and the extra 1/8 of a mile may give him time to finish the job.

       Four of my top six last year finished in the top five. Of course, my pick was fifth. We’ll see. You never know what will happen in a 20-horse field. The list of great horses that didn’t get the right trip in the Derby is long. You take your shot and have fun with it.

      

       Good luck!

-      Mark Pukalo

Patience Makes Perfect Bolts

     The Tampa Bay Lightning has enough talent and role players to be a playoff team.

     They are well coached and managed.

     Hockey sense is in abundance in the room.

     They can be tough, mentally and physically, and they care.

     So why are the Bolts falling out of the race for the postseason, after a 6-1 start, with a precious 26 games left?

     Coach Guy Boucher finally had a chance to voice it clearly -- although he has intimated it at different times over the last two seasons -- after the debacle of a losing play at Boston on Saturday.

     “It’s coming down to the same thing that’s been going on for years and we’re trying to break, that offense-first mentality,” Boucher told reporters.

     However you term the problem, it is impatience with the puck and with the game. It’s the inconsistency of thought about certain situations. It’s hoping instead of being sure.

     Some might say that takes away aggressiveness or it limits a team that has as much creativity and skill as most, if not all, teams in the NHL. That would be incorrect.

     The creativity that leads to most of the Lightning’s defensive zone turnovers is misplaced. The creativity at their offensive blueline is misplaced.

     There are plenty of times they can use their skill and offensive ideas. They don’t need to reach into a scrum at the boards in the defensive zone and knock the puck through their legs, or without looking, into the middle of the ice in hopes of a teammate being there. They don’t need to get rid of a puck without any defender on them, when a couple more strides gets the puck out of danger. They don’t need to always skate a stride or two into the offensive zone and make a drop pass, a move that teams know they will make 75 percent of the time. Heck, I wish drop passes were banned behind the offensive circles.

     Every team turns the puck over. In fact, the Lightning are 18^th in the league in giveaways -- although 160 for the season seems very generous. The Bolts tend to turn it over in bad spots on the ice. What happens when you give the puck away without it being forced? It makes your defense work harder. It makes your forwards comes back and expend energy. It takes everyone out of position. It makes your goalies face tougher chances, more odd-man rushes, and hurts their confidence. It takes time in the offensive end away for the league’s top offense. It often eliminates long stretches of solid play with one goal against. The cumulative effect is devastating.
     People can say, well, ‘We don’t want the Lightning to be boring.’ But making the right plays, the prudent plays, only gives you more time with the puck in the long run. Limiting the types of turnovers they are making on a consistent basis, winning more puck battles, only leaves more gas in the tank for your top six forwards.

    Look at the Buffalo Sabres game recently. The Lightning recorded an early goal and had several prime chances to score. Buffalo did very little, but scored after two turnovers to win 2-1. Yes, the Lightning missed opportunities. But if they did not force two passes that did not get out of the zone, the Bolts could have won 1-0.
    The best thing about all of this? The mistakes are very correctable. In my opinion, it can be turned around without major personnel moves.

    No doubt, the Lightning could use better goaltending. But if they play solid more consistently, it won’t matter as much. Look at the Chicago Blackhawks. Corey Crawford and Ray Emery weren’t that good last year, were they? Reports were that the Hawks might be interested in acquiring a netminder. Why are they suddenly winning every game? Because, simply, their team is playing way better in front of them.

    The Lightning could be more physical. It would help. But they weren’t rough and tumble when they almost won the Stanley Cup in 2011.

     We don’t know if Anders Lindback will be the answer in goal. It will take time. He certainly has been great at times. He has seven of the Lightning’s nine wins. He’s 24. Like Boucher said, he just has to go through the process. The ability seems to be there. Like the best goalies, he just needs to limit the mistakes.

      The Lightning need to find a way to beat New Jersey tonight, then come home and get hot. They can certainly do that if they have the puck more often.

      Cheap hits: For a while, it seemed like the lockout had made the players more gentlemanly on the ice. Well, except for Zac Rinaldo.

      But suddenly there has been a rash of cheap shots from familiar suspects like Buffalo’s Patrick Kaleta. Then there was the debacle between Boston and Montreal on Sunday. What was Claude Julien complaining about?

      The league has to realize that track records shouldn’t matter for certain hits. Until it starts handing out 10, 15, or 20 game bans, it is going to continue. Shanny, please stop finding reasons to give these guys a break.

      Realignment: I don’t think changing the divisions around makes sense unless you have 32 teams.

      The problem with that is the most likely additions – Seattle, Quebec City, a second Toronto team, Hamilton, Kansas City Hartford (Ok, I know, just adding it for fun) -- makes it even more difficult if Phoenix has to move. If you do it by region, you end up with teams playing in divisions they shouldn’t. No doubt, the Florida Panthers better start doing better at the box office.

      But one thing’s for sure. It’s time to put Winnipeg in a different division. Why the heck can’t they put the Jets in the Northwest, Colorado in the Pacific and Dallas in the Southeast? Is that so hard?

      --Mark Pukalo

Thoughts on a new NHL Season......Finally

    It has been about nine months since I walked into the Tampa Bay Times Forum for a hockey game. It seems like nine years.

     Finally, they will drop the puck on Saturday and end an embarrassing period for the National Hockey League. We can talk about power plays and hits instead pounding our heads on the desk every time the two sides couldn’t decide when to meet next.

     You can still be mad. You should be. You can take out your anger on the owners in your own way. But boycotting the sport, even for one shortened season, doesn’t make sense to me.

     What did hockey fans miss the most? Many would say, the excitement of the game. Now that it is back, why would you turn your back on the fun that the owners, the players and their lawyers took away from you for four months? You deserve some enjoyment.

     I’ve never understood why many of my friends back in Connecticut have deserted the game since the Whalers left. They certainly have reason to be angry at the league, in particular Gary Bettman, for not helping keep the team in Hartford. But they went to the games because they loved the sport. Why blame the game they loved? To me, they are separate.

     Well, enough about the past. We have to move forward. Soon we will dive into what should be an interesting season. It’s not a marathon anymore. It’s not necessarily a sprint either. It’s more like a mile. You will have to get off to a good start, find a comfortable position and finish strong.

     There will be a lot of tough decisions to make for teams who will be on the edge of the race for the playoffs in the 48-game season. Should they try to make it or trade an expiring contract to build for the future? That will be a dilemma for some.

     No doubt, this is the toughest year to pick the playoff teams. Anything can happen, but we’ll give it a try on paper.

--

WESTERN CONFERENCE

--

15. Calgary – Old friend Jay Feaster will have to decide whether to keep Jarome Iginla a little longer or ship him out for some young talent. In my opinion, the Flames are not good enough now and must look to the future.

14. Columbus -- I think they will begin to turn things around with John Davidson in the front office. Brandon Dubinsky could emerge with a key role up front and the defense has a chance to be improved.

13. Colorado -- The Ryan O’Reilly holdout might hurt and I’m not sure their depth is very good. Gabriel Landeskog is one heck of a player, though.

12. Dallas -- Veterans Ray Whitney and Jaromir Jagr join the Stars, but Jamie Benn has yet to sign a contract. I have real questions about whether they can keep the puck out of the net consistently, even though goalie Kari Lehtonen was good last season.

11. Anaheim -- With Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf one year from unrestricted free agency and Teemu Selanne likely playing his last season, there will be a lot of – as Brendan Shanahan used to say in Hartford – “uncertainty” for the future. Still don’t think this team has enough depth.

10. San Jose – The Sharks added Brad Stuart and Adam Burish. Yawn. Just have a feeling they may be ready for a fall, unless Antti Niemi has a big year in goal.

 9. Edmonton  -- The Oilers have accumulated some great young talent in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz and others. They are likely a year away, but could slip in.

--

 8. Phoenix – Coach Dave Tippett always finds a way. It will be interesting to see if old friend Mike Smith can have another big season between the pipes. Emerging defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson should help.

 7. Minnesota – Defenseman Ryan Suter and forward Zach Parise will now have to validate their gazillion-dollar contracts. The Wild should be better, but not a top contender – yet.

 6. Nashville – Overspent to keep Shea Weber on the blue line, which could hurt the Preds later. But they still have one of the best goaltenders in Pekka Rinne and a hard-working group.

 5. St. Louis -- Chris Stewart could return to form and the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko should add a spark up front. The question is whether the goaltending can be as good as last season.

 4. Detroit – Nicklas Lidstrom, the best defenseman of this generation, has retired to leave a giant hole. But there is still plenty of talent around to be a contender and if any of their young forwards emerge the Wings could be real good.

 3. Vancouver – Not sure I know what the overall plan is. But there is too much talent on the roster to not win the division and I think Cory Schneider will be good in net.

 2. Los Angeles – Starting so late should allow the Kings to avoid the Cup hangover. We’ll see if the Kings can find the same rhythm they had in the playoffs, because don’t forget that this group was the eighth seed in the West last April.

 1. Chicago – The Hawks seem to have the tools after suffering through that hangover last season. There is plenty of offense and the defense is loaded. Cory Crawford will have to come back to form in goal or they will make a move.

--

EASTERN CONFERENCE

--

15. N.Y. Islanders – Can’t really buy into this team, but there is certainly some good young talent led by John Tavares. The Isles are always a pest for a while, but consistency has been lacking.

14. Toronto – The Leafs are in transition after the truculent GM Brian Burke was fired. We’ll see if their young talent, like Nazem Kadri, can add some excitement.

13. Winnipeg -- The Jets give up too many goals and it isn’t often netminder Ondrej Pavelec’s fault. Not sure Olli Jokinen is the answer up front, either.

12. Montreal -- The Habs might be in a transition year. Carey Price is good in goal, but not sure they are that good in front of him and their best defenseman P.K. Subban isn’t with the team yet.

11. Florida -- Kevin Dineen will do his best with this group, but the Panthers will likely be better in 2013-14 after they settle their goaltending situation and their kids are a year older. Florida should remain patient and Roberto Luongo will fall into its lap.

10. Carolina – GM Jim Rutherford told me last year the Canes needed top-six forwards. He added two in Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin. Not sure their defense in front of Cam Ward is quite good enough though.

 9. New Jersey – Surprised? The Devils haven’t really replaced Zach Parise. I think some of their players overachieved last year as well. If Marty Brodeur can squeeze out one more real good year, maybe they sneak in.

--

 8. Ottawa -- Well-coached team with good speed. The Senators need to add some defensive help, but think they will build off a good season and talented young players could emerge.

 7. Buffalo – We’ll see if coach Lindy Ruff still has it. There is an interesting mix up front and it could be a breakout year for center Cody Hodgson. It may all come down to how good goalie Ryan Miller performs.

 6. Tampa Bay – The Bolts could win the division, which will likely be close between the top four. Steven Stamkos and others will score goals. How far they go will come down to whether they can get a little better on defense, in goal and especially on the power play.

 5. Philadelphia – It’s all about goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov. Will he be Pluto or Saturn? I have a feeling he settles in during year two in cheese steak city.

 4. N.Y. Rangers – Never been a big fan of Rick Nash, but he might really fit well in the Big Apple -- especially on the power play. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist will keep the Rangers in every game. They just need to score more.

 3. Washington – The reason the Capitals land here is they will be far better coached than they have been in the last few seasons. Adam Oates was a crafty player and he should put the puzzle pieces together.

 2. Boston – Man, it’s hard for me to but the Bears here. But they have depth in scoring and the defense is pretty sound. The locker room should be looser as well with the divisive Tim Thomas gone and Tuukka Rask taking over in goal.

 1. Pittsburgh -- Everyone’s healthy, for now, which makes this team hard to stop. The defense might need one more piece, but expect Marc-Andre Fleury to be way better than he was in the playoffs.

It’s just impossible to pick the Stanley Cup final now. Let’s wait until late April. Enjoy the season fans. Like I said before, you deserve it!

-     -- Mark Pukalo