The Final Chapter or Just the Start for the Lightning?

By Mark Pukalo

There is a totally different feel as the Tampa Bay Lightning begin the postseason this time around.

Captain Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman won’t be in uniform, but it is more than that. 

Though the Bolts struggled their way through the first round, you always felt that they had enough talent on the ice to find a way in 2015. Whether it was surviving the first period of Game 7 against the Red Wings, dominating Game 6 versus the Canadiens or going into New York with their season on the line twice and pitching shutouts, they had the goods. This season’s team has been so inconsistent on both ends of the rink, you wonder what else can happen.

It wasn’t difficult to predict this would be a challenging season for the Lightning, after a long, mentally-tiring run to the Cup finals. But it has been much more difficult with injuries, scoring slumps, puzzling lineup decisions and the Jonathan Drouin saga.

It could go two totally different ways in this playoff run and Game 1 on Wednesday night against the Detroit Red Wings will probably be an indication of what is to come -- just like two years ago versus Montreal. Either the Lightning will fold under the bright lights and show deficiencies that Ben Bishop or an ultra-defensive lineup cannot cover up, or the Bolts will play with a “nobody-thinks-we-can-win-without Stammer-and-Stralman” fire in their bellies and plow through a few rounds before the big guns return.

The thing that makes you believe in a run is that moving two lines through the bracket seems plausible. The Red Wings have struggled at times this season and the Lightning should have a huge advantage between the pipes. While the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers are both a pain in the neck to play for various reasons, neither present a scary second-round matchup.

While Drouin’s insertion in the lineup could be a big boost for the Lightning offense, the key to a run that lands in the Eastern Conference final depends on the defensemen. Bishop and Victor Hedman will give the Bolts strong performances. That’s a given. The bottom five defensemen have to raise their games a few levels. Nikita Nesterov and Andrej Sustr must limit mistakes. Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle must show their experience while coming up huge to keep Detroit from creating Grade A chances. The Red Wings aren’t a great offensive team. But they have plenty of skillful players who will punish you if you make unforced errors.

Coach Jon Cooper will be on center stage with how he builds his forward lines. It looks like a good idea to place Drouin on right wing with two solid defensive players – Valtteri Filppula and Ondrej Palat -- to protect him and the former third-overall pick seems to have come back shooting the puck more. In the past, you would worry putting Filppula with Drouin on the same line because both are pass-first forwards. For this situation, it might work.

Assuming Tyler Johnson is ready to play, the question next is what to do with Vladislav Namestnikov and Jonathan Marchessault? With Cooper’s unending trust in Cedric Paquette, you likely won’t see Vladdy centering the third line. If it were me, I’d go Brown-Namestnikov-Callahan followed by Paquette-Boyle-Marchessault. But you wonder if Eric Condra and/or Mike Blunden will be in to start with Cooper’s penchant to lean toward defense. In my opinion, Marchessault’s ability to get chances is more important than playing a “moderately” better defensive forward in Condra, but I don’t have the lineup card.

We will know rather quickly how this is going to go. Don’t expect the Lightning to win twice in Detroit this time around to rescue their playoff run. The best scenario is a composed defensive effort that doesn’t force Bishop to be a magician, an aggressive offensive performance that makes goalie Jimmy Howard work hard, a power play that comes to life and maybe, just maybe, a spark from No. 27.

PREDICTION: Lightning in five or Red Wings in four

Playoff bracket

East

First round: Capitals in five, Rangers in six, Lightning in five, Panthers in seven

Second round: Capitals in five over the Rangers; Lightning in six over the Panthers

Conference final: Washington in seven

West

First round: Stars in five, Blues in seven, Ducks in seven, Sharks in six

Second round: Blues in six over the Stars; Sharks in seven over the Ducks

Conference final: Blues in seven

Finals – Caps over Blues in seven

and

Wild Longshot Play – Sharks over Panthers in six