Lightning Capology and Vegas' First Team

By Mark Pukalo

It may be time for Tampa Bay Lightning fans to go back to school. The course they need to pass before enjoying the next few seasons of hockey is named “Capology.”

The NHL salary cap is far from simple math, unless of course you have a photographic memory of the CBA or it is part of your job description. Once you have a successful team, the game gets more difficult.

Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is approaching his final exam after acing the midterm. He must first try to fit a long-term contract for Nikita Kucherov into the current season’s cap and follow that up by putting the puzzle pieces together for a 2017-18 roster that works -- with new deals due for Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Slater Koekkoek.

Capfriendly.com projects the Lightning have a little more than $5.5 million left under the cap, but I believe that assumes they put 23 players on the opening night roster and counts Erik Condra over cheaper options. What Ryan Callahan going on long-term injury for about a month does for cap space and how much they need to be careful with as much as $3.5 million in performance bonuses due for Drouin, Koekkoek and Andrei Vasilevskiy are key questions. If Kucherov signs on Nov. 1, would that help get him $6-6.25 million easier? In addition, don’t forget they have $1.833 million of dead cap space due to the buyout of Matt Carle for the next four seasons.

If my calculations are correct – and I was once good at math in grade school – the Lightning would save $475,000 if they keep Luke Witkowski as a seventh defenseman and Gabriel Dumont or Joel Vermin/Cory Conacher as a 13^th forward while waiving Condra and Nikita Nesterov. The fear perhaps is that Nesterov could be scooped up by a defense-starved team (Colorado?) and you lose a little depth to save $150,000 in cap space. But the waiving of Dumont and Witkowski on Friday leaves Condra, Vermin, Brayden Point and Cory Conacher likely battling for three spots – assuming Callahan and Kucherov aren’t there. Sending Condra down saves $325,000 in cap room, but sitting Conacher or Vermin as the 13^th forward instead of them playing 20 minutes in Syracuse might not be prudent. Point probably stays until Kucherov returns. The opinion here is that Vermin might have earned his spot and deserves October to prove he can be valuable long term at the NHL level. We kind of know what Condra and Conacher are, and they will likely get their shots at some point.

Yzerman earned his A+ on the midterm with some important ground work for 2016-17 and beyond by signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Alex Killorn to cap-friendly deals this offseason. He, no doubt, had plenty of discussions about moving other players.

One way or the other, goalie Ben Bishop comes off the cap after the season. If reports are correct, Bishop almost became a Calgary Flame at the draft and Dallas has definitely had some interest. Don’t think a deal with the Stars is dead yet. They could get desperate. But at this point, there does not seem to be a landing point for the big goalie and it may be smart to just keep him for the season and try to win a cup with two No. 1s or perhaps trade him to a motivated team that loses their netminder to injury. The deal that would change everything is if they could jettison Valterri Filppula’s $5 million cap for the next two seasons. But there are two problems with that. The Fin has a full no-trade clause and, in addition, the only teams that might be interested in the solid No. 3 center would likely want to send similar money back.

No one knows what is going on with the negotiations, but you would think Kucherov is looking for somewhere in the $6.5-7 million range and the Lightning would like to keep him at around $6 mil. If Yzerman can engineer some cap space to push his offer up to about $6.25-$6.5 mil, maybe they can get something done.

Looking forward, if they cannot find a team to take Filppula, the Bolts may have a problem with the expansion draft. Teams will be able to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or nine combined (including a netminder) if I have read the rules right. Those players with no-move clauses have to be protected – Filppula and Callahan – while the Bolts are likely to add Stamkos, Drouin, Killorn and Kucherov (assuming he’s here) to the list. So that leaves either Palat or Johnson as an odd-man out and likely headed to Las Vegas. With Point coming fast as a center, Vladislav Namestnikov capable, Cedric Paquette still around and first-round pick Brett Howden’s future bright – the Bolts are in a better place at center. You wonder if the Bolts could package Johnson with other pieces and grab another defenseman or a No. 1 pick. It could save space for now and the future. Tyler is a terrific player, but in my opinion Palat is much more valuable. I don’t agree with those who put Brian Boyle into the equation for creating space immediately. He is too important with his size, savvy and versatility.

I still think Yzerman has something up his sleeve. Whether it is as simple as Kucherov signing a two-year bridge deal that assures cap space this season, or a trade, there is still time. Regardless, the Lightning are in a good spot with their depth. That’s what good drafting does.

Vegas Baby

Many things can happen to rosters before the expansion draft arrives in June, but taking a look at what the new NHL franchise can put together for its first season on the ice is worth some study.

What the mindset will be is hard to know for sure but you would expect a mix of youth and veterans to keep the team competitive, while building, through the first few seasons. GM George McPhee will also most likely pick some players he can deal right away for younger pieces or draft picks.

Here’s an early guess at what the picks could be for Vegas:

Goalies -- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh), Eddie Lack (Carolina), Louis Domingue (Arizona) and Philipp Grubauer (Washington). … Note: If they pick four Gs, you would expect one to get traded. Fleury over Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, probably because Detroit has more available forward talent. Carolina could protect Lack over Cam Ward if he has a better season, though.

Forwards – Jimmy Hayes (Boston), Michael Ferland (Calgary), Marcus Kruger (Chicago), Alexander Wennberg (Columbus), Benoit Pouliot (Edmonton), Jacob De La Rose (Montreal), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville), Jacob Josefson (New Jersey), Josh Bailey (Islanders), Matt Puempel (Ottawa), Scott Laughton (Philadelphia), Riley Sheahan (Detroit), Vladisav Namestnikov (Tampa Bay), Emerson Etem (Vancouver), Connor Brown (Toronto), Alex Burmistrov (Winnipeg). … Note: You would think McPhee may take a stab at a high-priced veteran some team floats out there, but who that will be is hard to predict right now.

Defensemen – Simon Depres (Anaheim), Zach Bogosian (Buffalo), Nikita Zadorov (Colorado), Jamie Oleksiak (Dallas), Alex Petrovic (Florida), Matt Greene (Los Angeles), Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), Dylan McIlrath (Rangers), Mirco Mueller (San Jose), Joel Edmundson (St. Louis). … Note: McPhee could put together a pretty good group here and it doesn’t have to be with older guys. Minnesota will likely try to trade Brodin.