The Worst Movies of 2016

It would be nice to unveil my list of the top movies of 2016 before the Academy Awards Sunday, but there are still too many interesting films to watch before I can make the final decisions.

I'm hoping to find a way to see at least some of the following movies in the next month - Nocturnal Animals, Allied, Fences, Miss Sloane, Loving, Silence, 20th Century Women, Queen of Katwe, Elle, Doctor Strange, Moana, Hacksaw Ridge and The Edge of Seventeen.

So, we will start with another countdown. Other critics can do it. Why not me? My list of the best movies of 2016 will be posted in late March or early April, but now it's time for the very worst of the year among the 80-plus movies I have seen. And there were several good choices.

Barely worth a red box rent, but only if you are desperate - The Boss, The Finest Hours, Ghostbusters (Why?), Inferno, London Has Fallen 10 Cloverfield Lane, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, The Nice Guys, The Whole Truth (Keanu as a lawyer?), Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

Joe Lunardi's first five out of the top 10: The 5th Wave (Cute Chloe Moretz saves it from the worst 10), Zoolander 2, Hologram for a King (Hanks in a stinker), Batman vs. Superman (come on, man), A Bigger Splash (Dakota Johnson's brief nudity saves it from ninth or 10th worst).


Worst 10 of 2016

10. Into The Forest - Ellen Page and Evan Rachel Wood can't save this movie with an apocalyptic story line.

9. Approaching the Unknown - A mission to Mars that is quite boring.

8. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising  - The first one wasn't very good and this one wasn't much better, if any.

7. Marauders - Bruce Willis and Christopher Meloni (Stabler) wing it in this confusing, uninteresting crime drama,

6. Broken Vows - Jamie Alexander is quite attractive, but the Fatal Attraction-styled movie is cliched and unwatchable.

5. Run Lola Run - Bad film about bad people, but the somewhat surprising ending pushes it from worst of the year to fifth worst.

4. Midnight Special - Probably would be my pick for most disappointing of the year, because it's the only one of the 10 that I spent money on in the theater. There was a lot of nothing before an unsatisfying ending.

3. Hail Caesar!! - George Clooney can't rescue this totally dull film, which provided no laughs or interesting dialogue.

2. Point Break - Why? Sort of a remake of the classic film in a different local. After about 15 minutes, you are just waiting for it to end.

1. 13 Hours - Went in with an open mind wanting to learn a little bit more about what happened in Benghazi, but left not having an idea what was going on.


HOPES FOR OSCARS  

Best actor - Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (but Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic was really good)

Best actress - Emma Stone, La La Land (Natalie Portman did a strong job in Jackie, too)

Best supporting actor - Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (but Dev Patel, Lion would make me happy)

Best supporting actress - Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (but Nicole Kidman, Lion is close)

Nothing Should Change Yzerman's Plan

By Mark Pukalo

The Tampa Bay Lightning are showing signs of life the last four games. They might not be dead yet.

There has been more energy, much more support defensively and a spirit - that has been inconsistent at best all season – resurfacing during the current 3-0-1 stretch. I don’t think the Lightning are playing defensively. They are just playing better in their own end and forechecking with more purpose to take pressure off their defense.

So, how should this latest run of solid play change Steve Yzerman’s mindset with two weeks left before the trade deadline?

Not one bit. Zero, zilch, nada, nil.

Three things can happen before the end of the season for the Lightning and two are good while another may be acceptable in a way. They could go on a historic run into the playoffs and be a real contender to get to the final four. Yzerman can take advantage of teams in or on the playoff bubble to clear salary cap space and get a jump on smoothing out the rough edges of this team. Lastly, the postseason run can end at three years and the team gets much-needed rest and re-evaluation time for another go in 2017-18.

There are many reasons why this season has not gone as expected. It’s many issues loaded into a big stew that does not taste very good. Captain Steven Stamkos was playing the best hockey of his life before going down with a knee injury. Ryan Callahan (hip) has also been absent much of the season and, although many would like more production from him, he is key as a leader, penalty killer and physical force. Throw in the fact that the Lightning had the most players in the World Cup during the preseason and they participated in the most playoff games the last two seasons. Then, there’s some underachievement. But we’ll get to that later - on both the players and the coach.

It has all led Yzerman to the point where change has to be made. But it’s not a rebuild. It’s a makeover. Doing nothing before the trade deadline would be silly and that doesn’t mean he has to make rash moves. He’s been fishing around for months already and there’s plenty of groundwork done. Now, it’s all about what other teams are going to do. It’s about timing.

There are things Yzerman can do now and other possibilities he should probably wait on until the morning of the trade deadline March 1.

These are all good players who have given their hearts to the organization and if there were no salary cap you might not mind keeping them around until the end of their deals. But salaries have to be moved to create space for next season and beyond.

Center Valtteri Filppula and defenseman Jason Garrison could probably help a playoff team or one on the edge. They can be dealt at any time - although Filppula owns a no-trade clause - and what the Lightning get back is not important as long as they don’t bring back a player with big contract past this season. They can even take back a little salary for next season if needed. The Bolts can still compete without them. Brian Boyle can move over to center to replace Filppula until Stamkos returns and Slater Koekkoek would step in for Garrison.

The big move they could make now is to deal Tyler Johnson. I know some fans out there won’t like it, but Braydon Point’s play at center makes Johnson expendable, especially with his contract up after this season. You could see St. Louis, Nashville, Los Angeles, Anaheim or even Vancouver taking a run at T.J.

It would not be surprising if center Vladislav Namestnikov or defenseman Andrej Sustr were moved either. They are still young players and they show flashes, but neither has taken a step forward this season and it has been one of the least talked about issues with this team. Namestnikov needed to emerge as a consistent performer at center when Stamkos went down and Sustr needed to raise his level of play with Garrison’s performance declining. Neither accomplished the goal.

The Lightning will probably have more evidence of whether they are legitimately in the playoff race on trade deadline day and that’s when you might see a few late deals.

It has been reported that teams have made some unsatisfactory offers for Ben Bishop already and Yzerman must decide whether to take what he can get or hope a team sweetens the pot on March 1. There are teams that could use Bishop down the stretch like Calgary, even Carolina or Dallas if they are still in the race. If the best offer is a fourth-round pick or worse, it’s probably not worth it. Teams might offer that before July 1 for negotiating rights.

The other much tougher question is what to do with Boyle if teams are offering tempting deals. In my opinion, the Lightning need Boyle on the team next season. But if you can get something good for him and sign him as a free agent on July 1 anyway, it could be a nice daily double. Yzerman must gauge what it will take for Boyle to stay before then. It appears the big forward loves it here. Could you tell him we’ll resign you for $9 million, three years on July 1? The risk is some team with cap space like New Jersey or Carolina may throw five years $20 million in his face? That’s a tough question to answer. To be honest, I’d just try to sign him now and find a way to protect him in the expansion draft.

Yzerman always seems to get more than expected in deals. But this time around, he probably has to lower his expectations and prepare for next season. Jonathan Drouin must be re-signed - soon. Ondrej Palat, too, although anything could happen if trading him might bring back a solid top-four righty defenseman.

Now, back to underachievement – one of the issues that has driven Lightning fans crazy all season. I called their play stale at times through the first half of the season, with virtually the same group as the previous two seasons. It seemed at times it was more mental than physical. Things have always seemed to fall in place for them the last two seasons. Nothing came easy this season and it seemed they failed to have the proper energy to push through.

I may be the only one out there that does not blame the goaltending at all. Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy have not been great, but most nights they have given the team a chance to win. Bishop’s mental game can’t be 100 percent knowing he’s likely somewhere else next season and the team played so poorly in front of Vasilevskiy when he was in net for nine in a row it was impossible to judge him. The Lightning are just fine in net with the big Russian. Those talking - some on radio - about keeping Bishop don’t understand. Even if they were to trade Vasy, they’d have to give Bishop $6.5-7 million and there’s no way they meet the salary cap offering him that much. It makes no sense.

One local columnist even mentioned that Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Drouin had underachieved in some ways. With all due respect, that’s crazy.

Hedman is having his best offensive season, was a serious Norris candidate until the team took a dive in early January and has been the best player on the ice for more than half of their games. Kucherov’s head seemed to be somewhere else for a few weeks in January, but he seems to be back in gear and headed toward a 30-goal season. While no one will argue that Drouin is still a “work in progress” like any 21-and-under player other than Connor “McJesus” McDavid, he has been one the team’s best three players all season long - in every zone on the ice. He will make a bad pass from time to time and have a quiet game once in a while, but Drouin has worked hard on his defense and is far better than he was as a rookie - and far better than anyone seems to want to give him credit for.

You can’t really blame the decline on any one of their core players. Some have performed better than others, but it has been more about consistency than anything else. While Palat hasn’t had the season you hoped for, he was probably the best player on the ice against Minnesota last week. It’s still my opinion that it all starts with the bottom four on defense. It’s not good enough over the long run. They’ve played better the last four games and Jake Dotchin has been a surprisingly nice addition. But that shouldn’t change Yzerman’s mind about fixing the group for next season. Braydon Coburn has been fine, but the other three spots are up for grabs.

It seems like I’m being too easy on them. Maybe I am. But taking a few steps back and missing the playoffs this season could be a positive in the end if Yzerman can create some cap space and make a few heady deals.

It does not appear one of his moves will be changing the coach. Jon Cooper can’t be blamed for the team’s demise due to injuries and the other issues, but there are still reasons why intelligent Lightning hockey fans who “know the game” can think maybe a different coach could bring a fresh outlook the Lightning needs.

You can’t take away the success from Cooper. He took the team within two wins of a Cup two seasons ago and within a pair of goals of the finals in 2015-16. But you can also say this: He had very, very good players. Lots of them.

I’m reserving opinion on whether Cooper should be fired after the season if the Lightning fade out of the race down the stretch. We’ll see. But there are many reasons to make the call to sack him.

*His forward lines don’t make sense sometimes and he has always seemed to play favorites, allowing certain players to make mistake after mistake while others are damaged by one. How can Erik Condra ever play on a scoring line?

*Cooper tends to throw out the second-best unit to start the power play too often. There are times when players on the better unit have just been out for a long shift. Understood. But, in my opinion, Kucherov and Drouin should be out first every time unless there is a major reason why they can’t be. There’s been too many times the other unit went out and had little pressure, but due to circumstances used up 90 seconds of the power play without Kooch or Drouin getting a significant chance.

*It was strange sometimes that Nikita Nesterov was scratched for a game or two because of poor play and the first game back he got the third or fourth most ice time. You can blame Rick Bowness for throwing Nesty out too much, but it’s Cooper’s job to manage that in the game plan.

*Cooper burned out Vasilevskiy during the rough stretch when Bishop was out. Kristers Gudlevskis should have played in the “scheduled loss” at Washington and Vasy could have sat in another third period or two when his defense was imploding.

*There are a few reasons to use seven defensemen in the lineup occasionally - especially in a back-to-back situation. But Cooper does it too much. It leads to constant line switching and no flow. Several times, a forward has gone down when he has started seven D for no reason and they’ve had to go with 10 up front.

*His constant line adjusting has often been due to injuries, but sometimes needless changes have come after one or two losses. Last season, it seemed that the Drouin-Stamkos-Callahan line was off to a nice start and were growing together. One or two so-so games from the trio and they were broken up – never to skate together again.

*Koekkoek was solid when he first came up from Syracuse this season and his play dipped slightly after about 10 games. Instead of realizing young defensemen are going to have a few rough games from time to time and letting him play through it, the former first-round pick was benched. With him sitting for a few games, Yzerman felt the need to send Koekkoek down so he could play. There were way too many nights Lightning fans had to watch Nesterov make gaff after gaff with Koekkoek enjoying popcorn or skating in a Crunch sweater.

*There are times when he seems to make quick, inaccurate decisions on who is at fault on the ice. This might have cost the Lightning a game against the Bruins recently. Cooper and every Lightning fan were livid over the goal given up at the end of the second period that gave the hated Bears a lead. He seemed to blame the Boyle-Filppula-Drouin line that was on the ice and severely limited their ice time in the third period. But when you look at the play, most of the fault lied with Sustr and Garrison. Drouin was down the ice and came back to help, but David Krejci had carried the puck 1-on-4 into the zone way too easily. The two defensemen had every chance to make a play and didn’t. Sure, you can’t bench two defensemen and play with four the whole third period. But you needed Boyle and Drouin on the ice and they were not a factor in the third.

Cooper has won plenty of games and he’s been a good coach when you look at his entire resume. But it is not out of the question to think about a change. Lightning fans have reasons to come to that conclusion.

The message to Bolts fans after the “bye week” is this. Enjoy the final two months. It could bring you something special. It could bring a fresh change or an exciting new player.

Taking one year off from the playoffs may give you a half dozen postseasons in a row and the Cup in the near future. The frame of this team is solid. It just needs a touch up and some luck.

But Yzerman cannot sit on his hands the next weeks, no matter whether his team continues to munch points or not. He needs to think about the future.

Lightning Need to Find Answers Soon

By Mark Pukalo

It’s pretty easy to figure out the Tampa Bay Lightning’s biggest problems this season.

It’s not that difficult to name the many viable excuses for their position in the standings, either.

However, the best solutions for their dilemma are not going to be so simple to find.

The good news is the Bolts are just a few points out of a playoff spot with half a season to go. The bad news is they don’t look like a team just biding its time before making a big run. Honestly, they haven’t all season long – except for a few brief stretches.

It’s not just one thing, but it starts with the bottom four on defense. While the forwards have been inconsistent and not as interested defensively at times, the level of play from the five regular blue liners aside from Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman has not been good enough. Not even close. When the puck isn’t getting out of the zone efficiently, it does not allow the Lightning to use their speed and creativity. They look disjointed. Their energy is sapped.

So, what can they do?

Make a few minor trades? Change the coach? Make a big gutsy deal? Wait it out?

Right now, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is probably stuck with the fourth option while having a chance to get a look at some of his young players in the system. The difficult thing for him to consider is that if the Lightning can just get healthy enough and play a little better to sneak into the playoffs, the route to the Eastern Conference final is not all that difficult in the Atlantic Division. But if you just go with the same crew because they have gotten the job done before, you risk a lost season.

Yes, we’re talking about a 19-17-4 team here. In a way, that’s not too bad with all the injuries they have suffered. But the Lightning have higher expectations. Their fans do, too.

As critical as I have been of coach Jon Cooper at times, I’m not sure it’s fair to evaluate his performance this season with all the injuries he has had to deal with. His constant line shuffling and affection for Nikita Nesterov has been perplexing at times, but for the most part it has been the players who have not produced. Cooper should probably get at least the rest of the season to right the ship. … but, Gerard Gallant is out there.

Yzerman does not like to trade draft picks or players in their first two years with the team – except when there is a character issue like Anthony DeAngelo. That may have to change if he is going to fill the Bolts’ most pressing needs. They made some excellent picks the last two years, and giving up a No. 1 in the 2017 or 2018 draft won’t kill them if what’s coming back is substantial.

It is probably the time to make some type of minor or middling move just to shake things up. Pick up right-hand shot rearguard Frank Corrado from Toronto for a fifth-round pick or something similar to that? Make a serious play for right-hand D man Michael Stone (assuming he’s healthy) or even better Connor Murphy in Arizona? Dangle Vladislav Namestnikov to teams that might need center or skill up front? Offer veteran defenseman Jason Garrison cheap to clear cap space and acquire a younger No. 3-4 D man?

It’s all easy on paper. But it is very difficult in this day and age to make a trade with the salary cap – especially a major deal.

While I don’t believe Jacob Trouba has rescinded his trade demand, Winnipeg is not going to be in any rush to deal him as long as he’s in the lineup. They will wait for someone to blow them away. Trouba is the absolute perfect player for the Lightning to add. He’s a smooth, composed, a two-way defenseman who shoots right-handed. You could slip him nicely behind Stralman and Hedman on the blue line depth chart. But the Jets are probably asking for Jonathan Drouin and some of Tampa Bay’s top prospects. A package of Namestnikov, Dylan Blujus and a second-round pick won’t get it done. Aside from Drouin and perhaps Brayden Point, the “almost” untouchables are probably Dominik Masin, Taylor Raddysh, Brett Howden and Libor Hajek. I’m sure Yzerman would rather not deal Adam Erne or Mathieu Joseph at this time, either.

It doesn’t look as though the Blues are interested in trading Kevin Shattenkirk and Calgary isn’t dealing fellow defenseman Dougie Hamilton, either. While it’s not out of the question Colorado would trade Tyson Barrie, I’m not sure he’s the type of defenseman that would help Lightning right now. Yes, he could aid the offense but he is not all that good in his own end – which is the Bolts’ biggest weakness. While a legitimate power-play quarterback would be nice, they are third in the league with a man advantage without one this season. It’s possible someone like Cody Franson of Buffalo or Stone could help if the price is right.

Carolina has a host of defensemen, needs forwards to fill out its lineup and owns loads of cap space. Vancouver could use more depth up front, but might not have the right pieces (or want a center) to make a deal work for someone like Tyler Johnson – who is from Spokane, Wash. New Jersey also has plenty of cap space. No doubt, Yzerman is turning over every stone.

Goalie Ben Bishop becomes a major chip soon, but there only seems to be one logical destination for him – Dallas. The two problems are, the Stars would need to send a goalie back that makes at least $4.5 million for another year and they are probably not interested in trading major defense prospect Julius Honka or John Klingberg – a pair of righties.

By the way, Andrei Vasilevskiy is fine. He was outstanding in five of the first six games after Bishop went down and probably shouldn’t have started the Washington game when his team was out of gas. Vasy wasn’t good against Nashville on Thursday, but his teammates were downright awful in front of him against Winnipeg. There is no cap room for Bishop, Lightning fans. Live with it.

Yzerman must also think of the expansion draft. Not counting Namestnikov, there are nine forwards for seven spots on the list he must submit to keep – assuming there’s no deals between now and then. If Yzerman cannot get Ryan Callahan or Valtteri Filppula to waive their no-move clauses, they will have to be protected. Assuming that worst-case scenario, you likely add Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Drouin to make five. That leaves Ondrej Palat, Johnson, unrestricted free agent Brian Boyle and Alex Killorn for two spots – in my opinion. It would be hard to imagine Las Vegas taking Callahan with his injury concerns and big contract or Filppula with one year at $5 million left, so exposing the two forwards would allow them to stay and help the team long term. But it’s their decision. You could take a chance and expose Boyle, assuming that Vegas wouldn’t pick UFAs.

Evaluating the forwards this season is difficult. They have all been up and down – even Kucherov, who was a turnover machine last week against Toronto. Palat has had a rough season, but he is so versatile it’s hard to let him go. The thought of replacing Boyle after this season seems silly now. He’s so darn important to this team. You can complain about Killorn’s so-so play and his penalties occasionally, but he’s a big-game player and is on pace for a season high in goals. Filppula started the season strong, but has struggled lately. Johnson has been either really good or invisible. Drouin has been one of the best three forwards in probably 75 percent of the games, but turned the puck over a little too much lately. Cedric Paquette can’t stay healthy. J.T. Brown is a solid complimentary player you like to have around, but not necessarily vital. Namestnikov only seems to produce when he plays with Stamkos. They are all good, valuable players. But at some point you need change.

It’s time for Yzerman to make some moves. He’ll probably start small. But he must be bold eventually.

No doubt, there are a few huge decisions coming. They may hurt. They may disappoint fans who love certain players that head out of town. This franchise has the depth young talent to compete long term, though. That is the comforting thought during the most difficult stretch for the Lightning in four seasons.

"You're not going to see this team fold," Hedman said. "You're going to see this team rise to the occasion. We've seen it so many times before."

Bolts’ fans just have to hope solutions can he found this time.

Something is Missing with the Bolts

By Mark Pukalo

Let’s be honest. Aren’t you a little worried about the Tampa Bay Lightning from what you have seen through the first month of the season?

The numbers don’t lie. The Lightning would be a .500 team without the three games against the New York Islanders – the first of which the former Fish Sticks looked about as interested in playing as going to the dentist. Don’t forget they were also rescued by a miraculous shot by captain Steven Stamkos in the final seconds of regulation in a win against Florida at home.

Perhaps our expectations are too high this early in the season, but there just seems to be something missing. Oh yes, there are excuses. The Bolts haven’t had Jonathan Drouin the last five games, heart and soul Ryan Callahan was not here for the first 10 and top-pair defenseman Anton Stralman has been battling injuries since the start of the season. There is enough talent in the lineup to play better though, and they are not – on a consistent basis.

There have been periods in which they have looked like the Lightning of the past few seasons. They were solid in the win at Ottawa and took control in the second and third periods against New Jersey at home. They scored seven goals at Toronto, thanks in part to Frederik Andersen, but got outplayed for more than half the game. Monday's victory against the Islanders was a good sign, but Andrei Vasilevskiy had to be too good again.

No doubt, even the best teams can’t play great every night. But there seems to be a stale nature to their play at times. They fall back into old habits – overpassing, no-look clears – more often. Perhaps, it is mental. With almost the same roster the last two-plus years, even in bad times they feel that it’s just going to happen for them. Because, it almost always seems to work out. The great thing about this team the previous two seasons is they have often responded to a bad stretch with a winning streak. Unfortunately, at some point, it may not happen.

It’s not time to panic. It’s just getting to a point where GM Steve Yzerman has to sit down with his staff and seriously evaluate his roster. Does it need a minor shake up to add a spark? Do they have to overpay slightly to go out and get a top-four defenseman, preferably on the right side?

Brayden Point becoming an true NHL player one year ahead of expected has given the Lightning the ability to move a forward for a defenseman. No one is going to want to deal for Valtteri Filppula, and I’m not sure he isn’t needed through this season after watching him raise his game a bit through the first 15 games. Yzerman must make a decision on Vladislav Namestnikov. Is he continuing to get better? Or is this what he is? Vladdy is a good hockey player and a smart young man. He has value. But he could be a nice trading chip as well.

Yzerman also must decide what he has on the back end. Victor Hedman is an elite defenseman and Stralman is a perfect complement. But when the forwards are not playing at their top level for the Lightning, their bottom four defensemen are exposed. Slater Koekkoek might be a top-four defenseman, but we’re not 100 percent sure are we? Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are solid veteran rearguards. Andrej Sustr even has his moments. But when your second “shutdown” pair is Garrison-Sustr, that just may not be good enough in the long run. That duo was spun in circles by the San Jose Sharks on Saturday.

The other concern is will we ever see the Tyler Johnson of two seasons ago again? The Bolts second-line center has had a few productive games, but has been a ghost in others. It may be time for coach Jon Cooper to just put the Triplets back together and let them go.

Top-four defensemen are not growing in the orange groves in Florida. They are hard to get -- because, the really good ones are either expensive to pay or to acquire. Two right-hand shooters might be available and they are both young – Dougie Hamilton of Calgary and Jacob Trouba of Winnipeg. Word is that Trouba was coveted by the Lightning on draft day and went just before they picked Koekkoek. St. Louis’ Kevin Shattenkirk could be a rental down the road. I have no doubt Yzerman has been on the phone working on improving his defense. At some point, he may have to trade some high picks and/or a prospect to get something done.

Something makes me believe Ben Bishop is here until the end of the season and will leave as a free agent. But there is always potential that the Dallas Stars will find a way to make it worthwhile that the Lightning deal the big goaltender to them.

Plenty can happen. There is time, but if the Lightning come home from this road trip at less than 3-1-1, Yzerman may have to do something. The Eastern Conference is too competitive. Perhaps the 2016-17 Bolts won’t be able to just turn it on when they need it.

2016-17 NHL Predictions -- An Impossible Task

By Mark Pukalo

Balance is word in the NHL.

With variables such as unsigned RFAs, injuries and salary cap concerns clouding the scene in October, it is almost impossible to be confident about picking the final order in each division.

Yes, it would be surprising if one way or another Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Nashville and Dallas did not make the postseason. But figuring out who rises and falls behind them will depend on many factors.

The Lightning and perhaps Montreal, assuming Carey Price is there all season, look like the top two in the Atlantic. After that, any order wouldn’t be a shocker. It's all about Washington and Pittsburgh in the Metropolitan. Picking the order out of a hat would be just as good as deep analysis for the rest. The Central should be as close as last season and the California teams are not assured of being the top three in the Pacific.

So, of course, I’m going to take a stab at predicting the finish. Why not?

ATLANTIC

Tampa Bay – The Lightning are the most talented team in the division by quite a bit, especially with Nikita Kucherov signed. It’s Jonathan Drouin’s time to shine alongside Steven Stamkos.

Montreal – Price makes a big difference for team that is not really good defensively. The main concern is that those in the locker room that wanted P.K. Subban gone are going to have to sink or swim without him -- and may drown.

Ottawa – First-year coach Guy Boucher can get the best out of this group and there is a little cap space to work with. While others in the division are a little boring, the Senators may have the spark to make a leap.

Boston – Hate to put the Bears back in the playoffs, but think they may cycle toward the positive. Still need to add a defenseman though to help Tuukka Rask. Cam Fowler or Jacob Trouba?

--

Detroit – Still weak on defense and Petr Mrazek can’t save them every night. Have an abundance of forwards and shipping a few for Trouba or Fowler would make sense, perhaps moving the Wings to third.

Buffalo – The Sabres are on the rise, but still may be little shy of reaching the top four. They should build and prepare for their arrival as a playoff contender next season instead of putting bandaids on.

Florida – Two of their top six forwards – Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad -- are out injured and their top scorer is like 50 years old. Just have a feeling they take two steps back before moving forward again in 2017-18.

Toronto – The Leafs will be a fun team to watch with their talented youth and could stay in contention for a while. The bottom six in this division could go any way.

METROPOLITAN

Washington – The Caps might not be better than the Penguins overall, but would expect them to win the division again. Still not sure their defense is good enough to win a Cup.

Pittsburgh – GM Jim Rutherford won his second Cup last season with a little luck and some smart moves (Carl Hagelin, Trevor Daley, Justin Schultz, etc.). The same group tries to do it again, but there is a concern with Sidney Crosby’s concussion.

New York Rangers – Would like to push them down a bit, but the Blueshirts always seem to put together enough streaks to be in the top four. If King Henrik’s play slips, though, so will the Rangers.

Carolina – Must throw in one new team on the rise and the Canes are well coached, have an emerging young defense and some improving pieces up front. They have more cap space than any team in the league, too.

--

Philadelphia – Could see the Metro getting five teams in again this season with this improving team as part of the mix. Not totally convinced their defense and goaltending is ready for prime time, except for the Ghost.

Columbus – Picked them to win the division a year ago. Then they went 0-8-0. If the Jackets can ever stay healthy for a full season, John Tortorella could return them to the postseason.

New York Islanders – Andrew Ladd sort of replaces Kyle Okposo, but did Garth Snow go out and get John Tavares linemates? Nope. These guys always find ways to win games to stay around, but just think they may come up short this time.

New Jersey – The addition of Taylor Hall and a healthy Mike Cammalieri will help, but this team looks to be a year away from being a true contender. Cory Schneider may steal them plenty of wins though.

CENTRAL

Chicago – The Blackhawks probably aren’t as deep as the three teams below them on this list, but coaching and their stars will push them over the top.

Nashville – Pekka Rinne better be sharper than he was Saturday in Tampa, but the Predators have the roster to win the West. Get ready for that P.K. Subban country album.

Dallas – Injuries, especially with Tyler Seguin, are a concern. Still, the Stars may be a Ben Bishop away from being a series Cup contender.

St. Louis – It’s Jake Allen’s show now. Can he do it? The Blues learned how to win a little in the playoffs last time around. That could help.

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Winnipeg – This team is coming, but they must make a good trade with Trouba. The defense is a little thin.

Minnesota – The Wild still needs to make that Jonas Brodin for a top-nine forward deal.

Colorado – A team in transition that is still lacking in its own end.

PACIFIC

San Jose – The last hurrah for Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton after coming up just short last season. The Sharks could use some cap space.

Anaheim – The Ducks are in a holding pattern with forward Rickard Rakell and defenseman Hampus Lindholm still unsigned. They must wait to make sure they have Lindholm before dealing Fowler for forward help. If everything works out, they could win West.

Edmonton – They are ready. No turning back now. Connor McDavid leads a talented forward corps and vastly under-rated Adam Larsson will help the defense.

Los Angeles – Have to think Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick will find a way to get the Kings into the postseason, but it ain’t going to be easy.

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Arizona – The Coyotes boast an exciting young roster that is still evolving. Dave Tippett must find a way to bring it together and his track record says he will. Watch out Kings.

Calgary – The Flames finally got a deal for Johnny Gaudreau done Monday and can move forward with a promising lineup. Goaltending is a concern.

Vancouver – Could be in the running for the first pick in the draft, which would probably be better than plugging holes to try and give the Sedins a chance to sneak into the playoffs one of their final two years.

East final – Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh

West final – Nashville over San Jose

Stanley Cup – Tampa Bay over Nashville

Lightning Capology and Vegas' First Team

By Mark Pukalo

It may be time for Tampa Bay Lightning fans to go back to school. The course they need to pass before enjoying the next few seasons of hockey is named “Capology.”

The NHL salary cap is far from simple math, unless of course you have a photographic memory of the CBA or it is part of your job description. Once you have a successful team, the game gets more difficult.

Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is approaching his final exam after acing the midterm. He must first try to fit a long-term contract for Nikita Kucherov into the current season’s cap and follow that up by putting the puzzle pieces together for a 2017-18 roster that works -- with new deals due for Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Slater Koekkoek.

Capfriendly.com projects the Lightning have a little more than $5.5 million left under the cap, but I believe that assumes they put 23 players on the opening night roster and counts Erik Condra over cheaper options. What Ryan Callahan going on long-term injury for about a month does for cap space and how much they need to be careful with as much as $3.5 million in performance bonuses due for Drouin, Koekkoek and Andrei Vasilevskiy are key questions. If Kucherov signs on Nov. 1, would that help get him $6-6.25 million easier? In addition, don’t forget they have $1.833 million of dead cap space due to the buyout of Matt Carle for the next four seasons.

If my calculations are correct – and I was once good at math in grade school – the Lightning would save $475,000 if they keep Luke Witkowski as a seventh defenseman and Gabriel Dumont or Joel Vermin/Cory Conacher as a 13^th forward while waiving Condra and Nikita Nesterov. The fear perhaps is that Nesterov could be scooped up by a defense-starved team (Colorado?) and you lose a little depth to save $150,000 in cap space. But the waiving of Dumont and Witkowski on Friday leaves Condra, Vermin, Brayden Point and Cory Conacher likely battling for three spots – assuming Callahan and Kucherov aren’t there. Sending Condra down saves $325,000 in cap room, but sitting Conacher or Vermin as the 13^th forward instead of them playing 20 minutes in Syracuse might not be prudent. Point probably stays until Kucherov returns. The opinion here is that Vermin might have earned his spot and deserves October to prove he can be valuable long term at the NHL level. We kind of know what Condra and Conacher are, and they will likely get their shots at some point.

Yzerman earned his A+ on the midterm with some important ground work for 2016-17 and beyond by signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Alex Killorn to cap-friendly deals this offseason. He, no doubt, had plenty of discussions about moving other players.

One way or the other, goalie Ben Bishop comes off the cap after the season. If reports are correct, Bishop almost became a Calgary Flame at the draft and Dallas has definitely had some interest. Don’t think a deal with the Stars is dead yet. They could get desperate. But at this point, there does not seem to be a landing point for the big goalie and it may be smart to just keep him for the season and try to win a cup with two No. 1s or perhaps trade him to a motivated team that loses their netminder to injury. The deal that would change everything is if they could jettison Valterri Filppula’s $5 million cap for the next two seasons. But there are two problems with that. The Fin has a full no-trade clause and, in addition, the only teams that might be interested in the solid No. 3 center would likely want to send similar money back.

No one knows what is going on with the negotiations, but you would think Kucherov is looking for somewhere in the $6.5-7 million range and the Lightning would like to keep him at around $6 mil. If Yzerman can engineer some cap space to push his offer up to about $6.25-$6.5 mil, maybe they can get something done.

Looking forward, if they cannot find a team to take Filppula, the Bolts may have a problem with the expansion draft. Teams will be able to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or nine combined (including a netminder) if I have read the rules right. Those players with no-move clauses have to be protected – Filppula and Callahan – while the Bolts are likely to add Stamkos, Drouin, Killorn and Kucherov (assuming he’s here) to the list. So that leaves either Palat or Johnson as an odd-man out and likely headed to Las Vegas. With Point coming fast as a center, Vladislav Namestnikov capable, Cedric Paquette still around and first-round pick Brett Howden’s future bright – the Bolts are in a better place at center. You wonder if the Bolts could package Johnson with other pieces and grab another defenseman or a No. 1 pick. It could save space for now and the future. Tyler is a terrific player, but in my opinion Palat is much more valuable. I don’t agree with those who put Brian Boyle into the equation for creating space immediately. He is too important with his size, savvy and versatility.

I still think Yzerman has something up his sleeve. Whether it is as simple as Kucherov signing a two-year bridge deal that assures cap space this season, or a trade, there is still time. Regardless, the Lightning are in a good spot with their depth. That’s what good drafting does.

Vegas Baby

Many things can happen to rosters before the expansion draft arrives in June, but taking a look at what the new NHL franchise can put together for its first season on the ice is worth some study.

What the mindset will be is hard to know for sure but you would expect a mix of youth and veterans to keep the team competitive, while building, through the first few seasons. GM George McPhee will also most likely pick some players he can deal right away for younger pieces or draft picks.

Here’s an early guess at what the picks could be for Vegas:

Goalies -- Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh), Eddie Lack (Carolina), Louis Domingue (Arizona) and Philipp Grubauer (Washington). … Note: If they pick four Gs, you would expect one to get traded. Fleury over Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, probably because Detroit has more available forward talent. Carolina could protect Lack over Cam Ward if he has a better season, though.

Forwards – Jimmy Hayes (Boston), Michael Ferland (Calgary), Marcus Kruger (Chicago), Alexander Wennberg (Columbus), Benoit Pouliot (Edmonton), Jacob De La Rose (Montreal), Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville), Jacob Josefson (New Jersey), Josh Bailey (Islanders), Matt Puempel (Ottawa), Scott Laughton (Philadelphia), Riley Sheahan (Detroit), Vladisav Namestnikov (Tampa Bay), Emerson Etem (Vancouver), Connor Brown (Toronto), Alex Burmistrov (Winnipeg). … Note: You would think McPhee may take a stab at a high-priced veteran some team floats out there, but who that will be is hard to predict right now.

Defensemen – Simon Depres (Anaheim), Zach Bogosian (Buffalo), Nikita Zadorov (Colorado), Jamie Oleksiak (Dallas), Alex Petrovic (Florida), Matt Greene (Los Angeles), Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), Dylan McIlrath (Rangers), Mirco Mueller (San Jose), Joel Edmundson (St. Louis). … Note: McPhee could put together a pretty good group here and it doesn’t have to be with older guys. Minnesota will likely try to trade Brodin.

No Easy Answers for Yzerman

By Mark Pukalo

Throughout his tenure as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning, things have always seemed to fall into place for Steve Yzerman.

His eye for talent and patience as a manager had plenty to do with that, along with a terrific hands-off owner in Jeffrey Vinik and some luck sprinkled in. Many Lightning fans have compared Yzerman to a Jedi Knight at times for signing cap-friendly contracts and coaxing teams to cough up more than they should in trades.

Few GMs can navigate their careers without big mistakes on player moves, but Yzerman hasn't made many. In fact, aside from minor things such as signing Erik Condra for three years or giving up Richard Panik for nothing, you can really only point to Matt Carle’s contract as a clear error in judgement -- and that may be more about the player. Many have argued Ryan Callahan’s deal was a mistake. But while the hard-working right wing has not put up the type of numbers that justify his salary, he provides so many intangibles that this team needs.

Yzerman is now faced with what will undoubtedly be his biggest challenge. He often gives the media little to work with, but told reporters after the season that his actions this summer would basically set the course of the team for years to come. That includes preparing for the expansion draft, likely set for next June. There are going to be changes. There has to be changes.

While he no doubt put several oars in the water and worked tirelessly to begin that process last weekend at the NHL Draft, nothing happened. It was the perfect time to get started because you can use draft picks as sweeteners in deals, but no one was biting.

Part of the problem is the uncertainty on what captain Steven Stamkos is going to do. There’s no doubt Stamkos wanted to look around to see what is out there. It’s a huge decision for his future, and it’s his right. Ultimately, it comes down to weighing more money against his desire to stay in Tampa Bay.

That decision may not come until a week or two after July 1 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. If Stamkos goes, Yzerman has to find a way to replace him in some way and dump a little salary. If he stays, he needs to dump even more salary. You would think if Stamkos does not sign with the Bolts by Friday for eight years, he is going somewhere else for seven seasons.

The second holdup has been the market for goaltenders. Ben Bishop has one year left on his contract and will be looking for Tuukka Rask money (at least $7 million per), which would likely not work for the Lightning even if Stamkos leaves. Bishop has moved into the elite category of goalies in the NHL, but the prudent thing to do is to hand the reins over to capable Andrei Vasilevskiy and get something for Bishop – preferably from a Western Conference club. But Bishop has a no-move clause and reportedly asked for $49 million over seven years from Calgary after being allowed permission to negotiate. The Flames almost immediately traded for goalie Brian Elliott.

That leaves Yzerman in a tough spot. He can hold on to Bishop and just let him go as a UFA after next season. He can try to get Bishop to sign a “hometown discount” four-year extension for something like $26 million and move Vasilevskiy. Teams in the market for someone like Bishop are few. Honestly, there is no franchise in dire need of a netminder right now.

There are likely only two options left for Bishop – Dallas and St. Louis.

The Stars may need Bishop more, but the deal is way more complicated to make. Dallas would probably demand the Lightning take back Kari Lehtonen ($5.9 mil for two years) or Antti Niemi (two years at $4.5 mil per), which defeats the purpose of the deal unless you can ship one of them somewhere for a draft pick or prospects. The Bolts are not getting John Klingberg for Bishop – the pipe dream of some Lightning fans. No way, no how, are the Stars trading their top defenseman. The best they could hope for would be right-handed defense prospect Julius Honka. With Jamie Benn’s contract up in the summer of 2017 and Tyler Seguin in 2018, Dallas may not want to sign a $7 million goaltender either.

St. Louis has always seemed like the right place to deal Bishop and the Lightning scouted the Blues extensively last season. You could deal two players who are impending free agents after next season – Bishop for right-handed offensive defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk -- and sprinkle other assets around them to make it worthwhile for both. Bishop would be going home and, although Jake Allen has been good at times, the Blues could be able to get the Vezina finalist to lower his demands and settle there. Yzerman would then have to use his powers to try and get Shattenkirk on a reasonable deal going forward. If it doesn’t work, well, you lose him like you would have lost Bishop. The one problem is, Shattenkirk seems to be in such demand that the Blues are reportedly asking to be blown away in a trade.

Yzerman has to lower his demands to turn over the roster. He made 10 picks this season to restock the system and can do without a few selections next season if they need trade sweeteners. In some cases, he has to take 75 cents or less on the dollar for the greater good. For instance, he doesn’t have to get full value for Valtteri Filppula or Jason Garrison if a team is willing to take their contracts. The only type of deal that could be made is accepting a bad salary for one year (2.5-3.5 mil) for Carle, some retained cash and a second-round pick. Chris Higgins (2.5) in Vancouver was an example, but now he is being bought out. That’s what it will take -- or more -- but it might end up being better than buying the defenseman out.

While it would be nice to get Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov’s signatures on new long-term contracts this week, the two standouts are probably being advised to wait to see what happens with Stamkos. If he leaves, there is more of the pie left. Restricted free agent Alex Killorn is in the same situation.

Lightning fans must remember this: Whether Stamkos stays or goes, the most important cap season in 2017-18 – not 2016-17. That is when Hedman’s deal would start, when Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat need new deals, when Vasilevskiy, Slater Koekkoek and Jonathan Drouin have to be re-upped. It could also have $1.8 million in dead space if Carle is bought out – for that season and two more.

There will be some pain. It would hurt to see Stamkos and Bishop go. Perhaps Killorn or Johnson must be dealt at some point. Everyone has their favorites that they don’t want to see playing for other teams but, until the final product is put on the ice in October, you have to trust Yzerman due to his past performance.

If the GM puts all the pieces together in good order this time around, he is truly Luke Skywalker – and Darth Vader to the rest of the league.

Draft adds to Lightning’s depth up front

There is no way to grade the Lightning’s 2016 draft class this summer, although fans can get an early glimpse at Development Camp in Brandon starting Tuesday.

Just about everyone pointed at the center position and size up front as the top needs. The Bolts addressed both with their 10 picks – seven of them forwards. Brett Howden, a solid two-way center whose brother Quinton plays for the Florida Panthers, was the top choice at No. 27 but the big news came in the second round.

The Lightning dealt 2014 first-round pick Anthony DeAngelo for the 37^th selection and picked fellow defenseman Libor Hajek, a two-way blue liner with great potential. DeAngelo has outstanding offensive talent, but does not seem interested in getting better on the other side of the ice. He was minus-18 and a healthy scratch several times with Syracuse last season. Sometimes you take chances that a player with high potential like DeAngelo is going to mature quickly once he turns pro. But you have to recognize early that it isn’t happening, and well before his value goes down. You have to think that is what the Lightning was doing here, putting out a fire before it spreads. Hajek may just be a more productive player in the long term with his ability to play on both ends anyway.

The favorite pick here is forward Boris Katchouk from Sault Ste. Marie in the second round. He plays hard, physical, has some personality to his game and can produce offensively. Forward Ross Colton, who is heading to Vermont as a 20-year-old freshman, could also be a steal in the fourth round.

Time will tell.