By Mark
Pukalo
One simple thing was very clear about this Tampa Bay Lightning season. Every contest counts the same amount.
The Bolts opened the season a respectable 12-6-1 despite showing some troubling
signs. Those problems were realized when they went 10-18-5 during the fateful middle
of the season, including putrid performances against Vancouver (two) and
Arizona. The 20-6-4 finish was good, but not good enough.
Even with
all that - though some circumstances might have changed - if the Bolts had held
on to a one-goal lead at home against Arizona on March 21 they could have
finished with 96 points and in third place in the Atlantic Division.
Ultimately,
you knew it wasn’t going to happen for the Lightning after that collapse
against Arizona as Ottawa, Boston and Toronto continued to collect points.
There was just not enough room for error.
But in some
ways, it’s not the worst thing that could have happened to the Lightning for a
number of reasons. Rest - physical and mental - is one, after playing way more
games than any other team the previous two seasons. A one or two-round trip
through the playoffs this season might also have meant keeping Valtteri
Filppula, Ben Bishop and Brian Boyle around while not giving long looks to some
of the young players. Filppula’s cap number and no-move clause would have hurt
next season while they needed to get something for unrestricted free agents
Bishop and Boyle. The veteran duo brought back a second-round pick and a big
right-handed defenseman (Erik Cernak). They also were able to deal Filppula
without retaining salary. In some ways, it was also a plus that captain Steven Stamkos did not play at the end of the season to give his knee more time to get stronger.
This season
provided some answers and showed kinks in the armor for everyone at different
times. Ondrej Palat had a disappointing first half and was one of the best
players in the second while Alex Killorn was the exact opposite. Jonathan
Drouin clearly showed he should be an untouchable, but you still would like a little
more consistency and a few more even-strength points from him. Tyler Johnson
continued to be inconsistent, but had some great nights. Cedric Paquette had a
good stretch, but once again was injured. J.T. Brown was gritty and active, but
went backward offensively this season. Vladislav Namestnikov has not shown any
progress, especially on defense where Drouin is a Selke candidate compared to
him. Adam Erne and Yanni Gourde certainly showed they are NHL players while heady
Brayden Point may have established himself as the team’s second-line center
moving forward. Let’s also hope Ryan Callahan comes back healthy, because he is
way more important than some fans think.
Nikita
Kucherov was the team’s MVP and it was amazing he put up the
numbers he did after being a bit lost during the team’s bad stretch in January.
The only criticism on Kooch, except for the odd no-look pass in his own zone
(see Drouin), is his attitude after games. He needs to take a few extra seconds
of his time to give more than one or two-word answers to the media, who laud
him game after game. It was funny at first. It looks bad on him now.
Victor
Hedman had a poor game here or there, but it will be a crime if he’s not a
Norris Trophy finalist, and Anton Stralman was tremendous in the final 30 games.
After that, it’s still a work in progress on defense. Jason Garrison had a
rough first half and only improved when placed beside Stralman. Braydon Coburn
was solid enough most nights, but is more of a No. 5 than anything. Andrej Sustr
showed a bit more progress than Namestnikov, but he doesn’t produce nearly
enough good performances and gets lost in key situations too much. Jake Dotchin
was the biggest surprise after being recalled and may just be the third
defenseman protected in the expansion draft while Slater Koekkoek - perhaps
unfairly - has lost his momentum.
So, what
happens in the offseason?
The big
question, in my opinion, is what to do with Johnson? Palat and Drouin must be
signed. But should the Lightning really go down the middle with Stamkos,
Point and Johnson? That’s a bit too small in my mind and Point seems to be more
productive at center. Can Johnson alone, or in a package, get the Lightning a
top-four defenseman?
Many have
talked about trading Killorn and, while it’s not out of the question, if you
deal the Harvard graduate you get smaller again. With all his faults - like too many penalties - Killorn is a winner and a glue player. I think you try
to trade Johnson and bring in a veteran third-line center (way cheaper than
Filppula’s deal would have been) for a year or two to give promising middle men
Anthony Cirelli and Brett Howden more time to develop. It certainly wouldn’t be
a bad thing if Boyle came back on a two-year deal and started as the third-line
pivot. But I bet a team offers him a longer-term deal he cannot turn down.
Teams such
as St. Louis, Minnesota and Anaheim - if they don’t go far in the playoffs -
may need some more offense and Johnson could fit in there. Minnesota is in
expansion draft jail. You wonder if the Lightning could deal Johnson to the
Wild (with picks, Brown, a prospect?) in a package for center Charlie Coyle and
defenseman Jonas Brodin - then send Brodin and Koekkoek to Winnipeg in a deal
for Jacob Trouba. Problem solved with Coyle as your physical third-line center
and Trouba makes your top four D formidable. The Wild can only protect three out
of the fivesome of Marco Scandella, Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba and
Brodin for the expansion draft. The only good news for Minnesota is it can only
lose one player. There is also Anaheim’s dilemma with righty D man Sami Vatanen
if they can’t get Kevin Bieksa to waive his no-move clause. If it means
exposing Dotchin to get a true No. 3 blue liner, it’s probably worth it.
Imagine if
the Lightning could keep both Koekkoek and Dotchin somehow and add Trouba. You
could have a top six of Hedman-Dotchin, Koekkoek-Stralman and Coburn-Trouba. Even
if you must deal Koekkoek or expose him, you can use Garrison for one more
rebound season. Pipe dream, maybe. I’m sure Andrei Vasilevskiy would love to
play in back of that group, though. The Russian’s only poor stretch last season
was playing behind a defense that was just brutal in front of him. He had
little chance. Seems like Peter Budaj would be the perfect backup, but it’s up
to the unrestricted free agent whether he tries to be a starter somewhere or
not.
The
expansion draft will be very interesting at every level. Vegas should be able
to put together a solid team for coach Gerard Gallant, but it could be very
random what they are looking for from each team. The Golden Knights will need
some veterans to lead the way and provide enough cap cash to reach the floor.
They could pick the best young player on your team or a veteran that fills a
role. GM George McPhee could come to the Lightning’s list and take a veteran D man
like Coburn and Garrison or he could think young and pick Koekkoek (if there),
Namestnikov or even Paquette. Heck, he could see Brown as a nice third-line
player who can fight.
It seems
pretty obvious who the Lightning will protect up front - Stamkos, Callahan,
Drouin, Kucherov, Palat, Johnson and Killorn. After Hedman and Stralman, the
big choice comes on defense. It likely has to be either Dotchin or Koekkoek,
but the Lightning may value Coburn more. Dotchin has probably passed Koekkoek
on the depth chart and he’s a righty, but Vegas might look at it another way.
Don’t forget Dotchin played with Hedman, which probably makes him look a little
better. Ultimately, the Lightning probably protect Dotchin and cross their
fingers that McPhee chooses Namestnikov or Garrison. I tried some inception with
McPhee when he was in the Amalie Arena press box in March. But I don’t think he
will pick Erik Condra.
You can
expect Lightning GM Steve Yzerman will wrap up contracts for Drouin, Palat and
perhaps Dotchin in the next month. If Johnson is not signed by late June it may
be a signal he is being shopped. There’s no doubt his new team would want to do
his next contract.
The end of
June and early July will be very interesting times for the Lightning. When it’s
over, the pain of what fans endured this season might just be worth it.
Vegas Baby
There are
teams that will have very difficult decisions on who to protect for the
expansion draft in June. That will likely lead to some moves in the final
week before the Golden Knights make their selections and teams with cap
space may get a few bargains because of it.
San Jose,
Detroit, Minnesota and Anaheim seem to the teams with the most difficult
decisions. Teams that could go with eight protected skaters rather than seven
forwards and three defensemen could be – San Jose, Colorado, Los Angeles, New
Jersey, Pittsburgh and Nashville.
If the draft
were this week, here’s what the first Golden Knights roster could look like.
Forwards -
Colin Wilson (Nashville), Darren Helm (Detroit), Reilly Smith (Florida), Tyler
Ennis (Buffalo), Charlie Coyle (Minnesota), Jannik Hansen (San Jose), Blake
Comeau (Colorado), Kevin Hayes (Rangers), Michael Raffl (Philadelphia), Andrew
Copp (Winnipeg), Trevor Lewis (Los Angeles), Ryan Reaves (St. Louis), Josh
Anderson (Columbus), Curtis Lazar (Calgary), Ryan Strome (Islanders),
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa)
Defense -
Adam McQuaid (Boston), Ian Cole (Pittsburgh), Sami Vatanen (Anaheim), Slater
Koekkoek (Tampa Bay), Martin Marincin (Toronto), Trevor van Riemsdyk (Chicago),
Brandon Davidson (Montreal), Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton), Stephen Johns
(Dallas), Alex Biega (Vancouver)
Goalies -
Philipp Grubauer (Washington), Eddie Lack (Carolina), Louis Domingue (Arizona),
Scott Wedgewood (New Jersey)
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