Don't Trade Drouin - Vegas Projection

By Mark Pukalo

Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman were signed long term. Important ground work was also completed before the last trade deadline. Now, the heavy lifting will be done to remodel the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The next month will be an interesting period for the NHL with the expansion draft, and Bolts fans should be in for a roller coaster ride of emotions. The way GM Steve Yzerman plugs all the leaks with the media, we never seem to know what he is going to do next. That often leads to wild rumors and speculation, which adds fear to the equation.

Still, Yzerman has yet to make a major mistake in his tenure that will hurt the team long term. He often pulls rabbits out of top hats with skill and a little luck. He has earned the fans’ confidence.

At the last trade deadline, Yzerman waved his lightsaber and Valtteri Filppula’s $5 million cap hit was gone to Philadelphia. He also received a big right-handed defense prospect (Erik Cernak) and a second-round pick by trading a pair of unrestricted free agents.

The next month to six weeks may offer the most difficult decisions for the Hall of Famer, though. Despite the fact the Lightning did not make the playoffs last season, there’s not an expert that doesn’t think they are close to being a Cup contender in 2017-18. The final pieces to the puzzle could come in the next few months, but at what cost?

Yzerman has always found a way. But there is one major mistake he could make this time around and a few other decisions that may create issues.

While there are many minor things that he can do to remake the roster, the two key issues are finding a top-three defenseman to add to the mix with the duo of Hedman and Anton Stralman, and deciding what to do up the middle behind Stamkos.

Yzerman must decide whether to go all in on getting a top-notch defenseman or acquire a young emerging player - someone like Brandon Montour from Anaheim - that may come a little cheaper. I have no doubt the Lightning brass has looked at every angle to what it would take to get Jacob Trouba from Winnipeg or Jake Muzzin from Los Angeles or Matthew Dumba from Minnesota, and even Sami Vatanen from Anaheim - despite his injury.

The Bolts have a strong corps of prospects and extra draft choices to deal. They also have a few young productive players like Tyler Johnson that can be moved.

The one thing they should not do? Trade Jonathan Drouin.

You just don't deal someone with special talent at this age. You are really tempting fate if you do.

There’s plenty of rumors out there that have the Lightning dealing Drouin to various teams for defense help. Normally, it doesn’t faze you because most of it is just uninformed speculation. But when Bob McKenzie reports the possibility, it has more credence. The only hope for Drouin fans is that 95 percent of the interest is coming from teams asking about him rather than the Lightning offering the talented wing around.

Even if the Lightning must shell out $5.5-6 million per for six years to keep Drouin, that may be a steal in a few seasons when he’s putting up 80 points.

Meanwhile, the most volatile issue for the Lightning faithful is who to protect before the expansion draft. For some reason, Alex Killorn has become a whipping boy for many Bolts fans after a rough second half in 2016-17.

Yzerman signed the power forward to a seven-year deal last offseason and Killorn went out and put up career highs of 19 goals, 176 shots, four power-play tallies and 10 power-play points in 2016-17. Sure, he takes the odd bad penalty. Sure, his second half was disappointing after a very fast start. But it seems very strange to me that fans have turned on him so quickly.

I’m willing to give Nikita Kucherov the benefit of the doubt that he was frustrated and did not expect his comments to find their way to Tampa Bay from Russia a few months ago. It appears he was questioning Killorn’s work ethic and I find that ridiculous. I’ve watched Killorn since he was in high school and one thing that has never crossed my mind is that he doesn’t work hard enough. My thought is that Kucherov wasn’t happy with who coach Jon Cooper put him with at times and took it out on Killorn because the left wing didn’t capitalize on a few of his passes. The one thing about Kucherov is that sometimes he overpasses and surprises players who are heading to the net for a possible rebound. Once he started to shoot more, the Russian sniper was outstanding last season. Kucherov and Killorn may just not work as linemates. That’s fine. But Kooch was out of line. Killorn is needed.

The argument that many are making is to keep Vladislav Namestnikov and expose Killorn to Vegas in the expansion draft, perhaps ridding the team of his $4.45 million cap hit for the next six seasons.

I’ve been hard on Namestnikov. Maybe too hard. But I’m not the only one who has been disappointed in his progress - especially last season. Vladdy produced when he was put with Stamkos and Kucherov for a few games, but then often cooled off and was dropped. There’s no doubt he has some offensive skills and can make a play, but I was most disappointed in his defensive intensity, consistency and the ability to accept passes cleanly. There were too many games when he was just invisible.

I’m not against Namestnikov getting the first chance to be a third-line center behind Stamkos and Brayden Point - if Johnson is dealt for defense help and Vegas decides to pass on him - but protecting the former London Knight and possibly losing a glue player like Killorn would be a mistake in my opinion. While I like Adam Erne more than some, I’m not sure he can immediately fill Killorn’s role as well. There are also potential third-line center candidates on the way in Brett Howden and Anthony Cirelli. If I were GM, I’d try to find a veteran third-line center with size to fill the gap for now and deal Namestnikov or let him go to Nevada.

It will be interesting to see what Yzerman comes up with. You can expect at least one major move. Trouba or Dumba would be solid additions. Vancouver’s Chris Tanev and Montour could work as well. Muzzin, although he is a lefty, is also interesting. More than likely, Yzerman will surprise us - and not overpay.

Ready or not, changes will come. Let’s just hope No. 27 is not one of them.

Vegas Baby

The more and more you hear out of Vegas, GM George McPhee will likely make many choices in the expansion draft to use in deals afterward. The Golden Knights are open for business and have probably gotten inquiries from all 30 teams.

Much will happen before the protected list is out, but here are my most recent projections from the Capfriendly.com expansion draft tool.

Forwards – Vladislav Namestnikov (Tampa Bay), Hunter Shinkaruk (Calgary), Phillip Di Giuseppe (Carolina), Lukas Sedlak (Columbus), Andreas Athanasiou (Detroit), Andrew Copp (Winnipeg), Trevor Lewis (Los Angeles), Jacob de la Rose (Montreal), Colton Sissons (Nashville), Devante Smith-Pelley (New Jersey), Michael Grabner (NY Rangers), Alan Quine (NY Islanders), Joel Ward (San Jose), Jori Lehtera (St. Louis), Kerby Rychel (Toronto).

Defensemen – Josh Manson (Anaheim), Adam McQuaid (Boston), Trevor van Riemsdyk (Chicago), Mark Barberio (Colorado), Jamie Oleksiak (Dallas), Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton), Alex Petrovic (Florida), Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), Fredrik Claesson (Ottawa), Ian Cole (Pittsburgh), Alex Biega (Vancouver).

Goalies – Philipp Grubauer (Washington), Linus Ullmark (Buffalo), Louis Domingue (Arizona), Michal Neuvirth (Philadelphia).